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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1606. (Read 3313576 times)

hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
December 29, 2015, 10:03:20 AM
Xmr is certainly a poor vehicle for speculation lately, as its value is remarkably stable.  This only improves its qualifications as a transactional medium and store of value, where its long term value proposition lies.

In other news, the bottom appears to be in on wheat, with very clear timing signals, and I am doubling long.

How do you do that, do you buy futures?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
December 29, 2015, 09:09:19 AM
Xmr is certainly a poor vehicle for speculation lately, as its value is remarkably stable.  This only improves its qualifications as a transactional medium and store of value, where its long term value proposition lies.

In other news, the bottom appears to be in on wheat, with very clear timing signals, and I am doubling long.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 28, 2015, 05:25:44 AM
Stumbled upon some old interesting threads about Bitcoin & anonymity:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2071

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33

If you are looking for more resources talking about bitcoin being not anonymous, you can have a look here: http://www.bitcoinisnotanonymous.com/




Nice link
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
December 28, 2015, 02:20:40 AM
Stumbled upon some old interesting threads about Bitcoin & anonymity:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2071

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33

If you are looking for more resources talking about bitcoin being not anonymous, you can have a look here: http://www.bitcoinisnotanonymous.com/

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 27, 2015, 05:40:02 PM
Stumbled upon some old interesting threads about Bitcoin & anonymity:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2071

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33

LOL, How things have changed.

I don't know, I personally find it rather disconcerting if users in the chain can be identified. For example, it wouldn't be enough for me to simply get bitcoins at an exchange, send them to a random address, and then use them from that point on. Your identity would still be linked. However, given the public nature of the transactions, I'm not sure if there is any way around this.

I'm sure somebody somewhere would/will be happy to sell you bitcoins anonymously; just put cash and a bitcoin receiving address in an envelope and mail it.  The exchange (who you'd have to trust to actually send you the coins) takes the cash and send coins to the address.  They have no idea who you are, and your identity isn't linked to the coins.

Well, it isn't linked to the coins until you forget to turn on TOR or I2P before spending coins on something illegal.  Or you remain completely and utterly anonymous right up until you spend coins on something physical and have it shipped to your home address.  Or you arrange to have contraband "dead dropped" somewhere, and you get arrested when you go to pick it up.

None of which have anything to do with Bitcoins, and all of which seem to me to be more likely ways of getting into trouble than somebody managing to figure out that "transaction for purchase of illegal stuff" is linked to "Gavin purchased a bunch of Bitcoins from Bobby's Discount Bitcoin Emporium" last year.

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 27, 2015, 05:33:46 PM
Stumbled upon some old interesting threads about Bitcoin & anonymity:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2071

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.33
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 27, 2015, 04:23:31 PM
He is trolling lol

TrueCryptonaire actually is one of my favorite Monero trolls. Transparent, yes but he is still funny at times.

It is fun to look at his history and record the dates that marked his change from bull to bear and vise versa (pattern repeats several times).

Very true, Completely transparent, has no impact on market and amusing! Who could ask for moar! Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
December 27, 2015, 04:04:40 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

I also think that it's preferable that people who invest in XMR also try to contribute something.
But even if people don't, just buying and HODLing XMR adds value:

without HODLers, Monero doesn't have any value at all and can't be used as medium of exchnage.
If a coin would ONLY be used ad medium of exchange, the value would be almost zero because people buy coins at say 1 sat, immediately buy their alpaca socks and the seller immediately dumps his coins at 1 sat to the next buyer.

Money has 3 stages of adoption:
1. Store of value: people hold coins => a "base value" is set
2. Medium of exchange: people use coins => liquidity at market is needed (people using the coin buy, people receiving coins sell) if liquidity isn't sufficient, people won't use XMR because they get a bad deal when using XMR.
3. Unit of account: people price products at a fixed XMR amount => a lot of liquidity and a stable market value is needed thus this requires mass adoption.

Only block rewards are at stage 3
people using xmr.to and/or shapeshift are at stage 2
Most of XMR action happens at stage one. Speculators are an essential part of the ecosystem.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
December 27, 2015, 03:48:27 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!

It didn't matter that you could by Alpaca socks for the socks, but it was an important symbol (its impact evident in that we are still citing it years later) that encouraged further adoption.



True. I think the fact that we have some people offering services and goods for XMR is good enough. We don't need to encourage people to spend XMR unless they are going to immediately buy back the spent XMR. The desire to hold XMR is what maintains any market value at all. Otherwise, XMR just becomes a hot potato.

I think merchants are kind of neutral to value. Yes you can spend it like a hot potato and the merchant may (probably will) dump it, but at the same time knowing that you can spend it may make you more willing to hold it (everything being based on speculation and selling to a greater fool being another version of "hot potato"). Also some merchants may hold and indeed may be accepting the currency in order to accumulate it (I'm sure some people who work for crypto do this, though that is a bit of a different case than retail).

So overall, it is hard to say what the impact on value might be, but that is just my opinion. I know there is a point of view that says merchants are just an excuse to dump and purely harmful to value since (almost) nobody holds, and it isn't necessarily wrong (in the sense that I can't disprove it).


hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 27, 2015, 03:40:11 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!

It didn't matter that you could by Alpaca socks for the socks, but it was an important symbol (its impact evident in that we are still citing it years later) that encouraged further adoption.



True. I think the fact that we have some people offering services and goods for XMR is good enough. We don't need to encourage people to spend XMR unless they are going to immediately buy back the spent XMR. The desire to hold XMR is what maintains any market value at all. Otherwise, XMR just becomes a hot potato.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
December 27, 2015, 03:28:31 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!

It didn't matter that you could by Alpaca socks for the socks, but it was an important symbol (its impact evident in that we are still citing it years later) that encouraged further adoption.

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
December 27, 2015, 03:17:54 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!



How many Moneros are you willing to pay for my stinky socks?


hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 27, 2015, 03:13:34 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!

I'd rather get rid of USD and keep the XMR.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
December 27, 2015, 03:10:38 PM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.

If you are referring to alpaca socks (early bitcoin merchant) I disagree with you. It is very important for a currency to actually be used (spent) like a currency in order for an economy to be built around it.  I hope everyone here is very supportive of all our early merchants so that more are encouraged to follow.

http://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin/

If anyone wants to sell socks for Monero you can count on me to become a customer!
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 27, 2015, 11:59:22 AM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.

Yes, we all play our role. Personally, I couldn't waste XMR on dice games or buying socks or something like that.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 27, 2015, 11:56:51 AM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.

I think his words are commonly misinterpreted. If I recall correctly, he acknowledges the benefits of everyone that in some way contributes to the ecosystem. Regardless of whether that are speculators/investors/coders. However, he also thinks that creating some kind of service or productive activity is more beneficial than simply speculating.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 27, 2015, 10:22:34 AM
Yes, fluffypony says that investing in cryptocurrencies to get a return is not a good idea and that it's better to invest in an actual service or productive activity. But George Soros made a billion in one day shorting the British pound. Currencies go up and down. Of course you can make money in currency speculation.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
December 27, 2015, 10:12:55 AM
Stability in terms of USD has been good, but I think we are in the eye of the hurricane. We should experience chaotic volatility as XMR finds its true place in history.

I listened to the podcast from getmonero (the recent one).
Someone of the core team told there Monero is not meant to increase in value but solely for transactional purposes (he did not use that exact wording but the idea was basically this).
Therefore, it is not recommended to invest any larger amounts of money into Monero but rather create services and Monero economy. It would indeed great to have tons of new places where bagholders could unload their trash bins to the dumpster and from dumpster to the landfill.

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 27, 2015, 07:02:23 AM
Stability in terms of USD has been good, but I think we are in the eye of the hurricane. We should experience chaotic volatility as XMR finds its true place in history.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
December 27, 2015, 01:44:10 AM
The I2P/IP integration would be champ.  It would be great if it defaulted to I2P if available.

According to the missive it will default to I2P for sending transactions. There are certain attacks that work best over I2P or TOR so by default it will also synchronize over the clear IP network. The Monero node would by default act as an I2P / IP bridge for Monero traffic only. It may be worth listening to the missive more than one time to get a clearer understanding of some of these issues. http://podbay.fm/show/1032156854/e/1451151298?autostart=1
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