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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1608. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
December 25, 2015, 07:54:46 PM
I don't know anything about Economic Change Events but it's easy to see that Bitcoin will not fulfill it's promise as worldwide digital cash.  All this talk of fee markets, and using it for major settlements implies that though it may be valuable - it is not digital money for global civilization.  
  
The future is exciting for Monero.

A fee market that prices in the increase in the blocksize vs transaction fees is critical if a POW crypto - currency is to have global widespread use. So it does make a lot of sense for Bitcoin to be discussing fee markets. Monero already has a fee market solution in place; however the Monero solution cannot be implemented in Bitcoin since it is predicated on a tail emission. Furthermore none of the other major alt coins have a solution to this issue. The best partial solution is Dodgecoin since it also has a tail emission. Bytecoin's "solution" of adaptive blocksize limits without a tail emission is a prescription for disaster since once the emission runs out or becomes minimal there is no way to secure the network. This by the way is what scares many of the the small block crowd including many of the core developers in Bitcoin into not increasing the maximum block size.

At this point in time there is scant awareness of this critical issue in Bitcoin, and the fact the Monero has a working solution right now, within the Monero community let alone outside of it.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
December 25, 2015, 07:25:28 PM
...One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates..

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.

i also do not think it will be a rumor-news thing. many allready tried to frontrun it and got burned by doing so.
the big news is the hardfork in march and my guess it this is not yet priced in. but it will come, even if 0.9 is released in february if i understood correctly. with the first hardfork there wont be this full 6 months cycle. (please tell if wrong)

so yeah there is a date somehow and it will be a very big event for monero. we still have a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this hardfork will increase default functionality for everyone and make monero a much much better coin. having a pimped client with less ram and new db etc is only the bonus if you ask me, its all about the minimum mixing.


btw yes i very much agree on the liquidity thing. since we all provide liquidity, why cant it be higher like it was earlier? in my view it really has a lot to do with polos kyc rules. am i wrong? or are you guys just broke?  Grin

at least the polo kyc is the main reason for me. i do not want to get full registration.

so could an exchange without kyc/aml help against the liquidity shortage? or is it just a general market phase that many coins/markets experience
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
December 25, 2015, 06:29:15 PM
I am still wearing my sun glasses and thus seeing the future pretty dark.
However, I am not selling any of my holdings but I ain't buying either since I have just enough coins for significiant amount of cash in case I am wrong with my bearishness.

Happy Winter Solstice everybody

Happy Winter Solstice!
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
December 25, 2015, 06:25:44 PM
I don't know anything about Economic Change Events but it's easy to see that Bitcoin will not fulfill it's promise as worldwide digital cash.  All this talk of fee markets, and using it for major settlements implies that though it may be valuable - it is not digital money for global civilization. 
 
The future is exciting for Monero.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
December 25, 2015, 04:14:21 PM
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-December/011973.html A very interesting analysis by Jeff Garzik describing the economic risk to Bitcoin of doing nothing on the block size issue. He defines "Fee Event" as
Quote
FE - "Fee Event", the condition where main chain MSG_BLOCK is 95+% to hard limit for 7 or more days in row, "blocks generally full"   This can also be induced by a miner squeeze collective soft limit reduction).
His key observation is what he describes as an "Economic Change Event"
Quote
*Key observation:   A Bitcoin Fee Event (see def. at top) is an Economic Change Event.*
An Economic Change Event is a period of market chaos, where large changes to prices and sets of economic actors occurs over a short time period.
A Fee Event is a notable Economic Change Event, where a realistic projection forsees higher fee/KB on average, pricing some economic actors (bitcoin projects and businesses) out of the system.
The key question here is: What is the impact of an "Economic Change Event" in Bitcoin on the Monero market given that Monero has already a viable solution to this problem and that almost all Monero trading is currently done in terms of Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
December 25, 2015, 01:28:36 AM
...

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.

This reminds me to restart my 0.8.8.6 node since, unlike my other Monero instances, it has crashed again.  Wink
hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
December 25, 2015, 12:32:03 AM
I googled "solstice coin" and got http://wiki.metroplexity.com/solstice-coin
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
December 24, 2015, 11:39:10 PM
I am still wearing my sun glasses and thus seeing the future pretty dark.
However, I am not selling any of my holdings but I ain't buying either since I have just enough coins for significiant amount of cash in case I am wrong with my bearishness.

Happy Winter Solstice everybody
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
December 24, 2015, 11:25:35 PM
I am still wearing my sun glasses and thus seeing the future pretty dark.
However, I am not selling any of my holdings but I ain't buying either since I have just enough coins for significiant amount of cash in case I am wrong with my bearishness.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 24, 2015, 06:19:45 PM
Another update from ShenNoether (NobleSir) regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

Quote
edit 12/15/2015: I'm starting to play around with some c/c++ stuff that will help me implement this thing for real - I'll probably take a couple weeks off for xmas holidays though starting next week, so expect no updates dec 17-jan 4

All updates & links are in this thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/



Another one:

Quote
edit 12/17/2015: I have updated the draft on eprint.iacr.org in response to some knock-off versions of this math showing up without citation.

Link: http://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098

Where did "knock-off versions of this math" show up without citation? Is someone trying to plagiarizer your work?

It's Shen Noether's (NobleSir) work, so you should credit him.

Yes seems so to bolded.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
December 24, 2015, 04:37:24 PM
Another update from ShenNoether (NobleSir) regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

Quote
edit 12/15/2015: I'm starting to play around with some c/c++ stuff that will help me implement this thing for real - I'll probably take a couple weeks off for xmas holidays though starting next week, so expect no updates dec 17-jan 4

All updates & links are in this thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/



Another one:

Quote
edit 12/17/2015: I have updated the draft on eprint.iacr.org in response to some knock-off versions of this math showing up without citation.

Link: http://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098

Where did "knock-off versions of this math" show up without citation? Is someone trying to plagiarizer your work?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 24, 2015, 03:51:11 PM
Anyone speculating on a bearish price?

One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates. We saw huge liquidity, some bigger holdings definitely changed the hands, and they need the liquidity they get from news like the upcoming update, to be able to cash out larger amounts of XMR.

Any ideas?

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.
sr. member
Activity: 371
Merit: 250
December 24, 2015, 03:46:13 PM
Anyone speculating on a bearish price?

One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates. We saw huge liquidity, some bigger holdings definitely changed the hands, and they need the liquidity they get from news like the upcoming update, to be able to cash out larger amounts of XMR.

Any ideas?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 24, 2015, 03:23:21 PM
Another update from ShenNoether (NobleSir) regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

Quote
edit 12/15/2015: I'm starting to play around with some c/c++ stuff that will help me implement this thing for real - I'll probably take a couple weeks off for xmas holidays though starting next week, so expect no updates dec 17-jan 4

All updates & links are in this thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/



Another one:

Quote
edit 12/17/2015: I have updated the draft on eprint.iacr.org in response to some knock-off versions of this math showing up without citation.

Link: http://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
December 24, 2015, 01:41:56 PM
Does anyone foresee Monero rallying back up this week.  Grin

I don't see.
The future looks dark.


That pic is actually funny in this context.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
December 24, 2015, 10:50:33 AM
Anyone here know, or can guess when 0.9 will be released?

My guess is some time in 2016.

When it is ready it will be released. Would you rush Picasso to finish a painting if he were alive today?

A beautiful comparison but largely off-track. It's software with a specific roadmap.

A roadmap isn't a timeline.
sr. member
Activity: 373
Merit: 250
December 24, 2015, 10:07:37 AM
Anyone here know, or can guess when 0.9 will be released?

My guess is some time in 2016.

When it is ready it will be released. Would you rush Picasso to finish a painting if he were alive today?

A beautiful comparison but largely off-track. It's software with a specific roadmap.
sr. member
Activity: 414
Merit: 251
December 24, 2015, 03:54:10 AM
Anyone here know, or can guess when 0.9 will be released?

My guess is some time in 2016.

When it is ready it will be released. Would you rush Picasso to finish a painting if he were alive today?
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
December 24, 2015, 12:03:19 AM
Anyone here know, or can guess when 0.9 will be released?

My guess is some time in 2016.

My guess: soon, just around the corner.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
December 23, 2015, 11:21:38 PM
Anyone here know, or can guess when 0.9 will be released?

My guess is some time in 2016.
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