Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1769. (Read 3313576 times)

anyone knows why bitcoin is going up (pretty strong) the last days?

anyone with some TA-skills who can talk some sense about monero-charts?

thanks in advance

anyone knows why bitcoin is going up (pretty strong) the last days?

anyone with some TA-skills who can talk some sense about monero-charts?

thanks in advance

Although... the fixed block reward could change things, in the long run even. We are the first coin that is experimenting with this.

Browsing around Poloniex I looked at XMR's most recent chart and it looks different to me. Using 5, 15, and 30 minute increment candlesticks looking at just a bit over a week of XMR trading, the majority of these candlesticks suddenly shifted red about 7:00 AM Poloniex time September 3rd to present. Before they were majority green or an even mix. I haven't seen this kind of thing on a chart before without major downswings in price, but price has remained relatively stable.

Is this a somewhat large seller playing it slow to keep his price on target?

Is this a somewhat large seller playing it slow to keep his price on target?

We've seen recently how discord between developers and also between factions in the larger community has slowed Bitcoin's development (and perhaps depressed its price), affecting the entire cryptocurrency sector. Monero's politics is more opaque. Here are some questions:

1. Do the XMR devs get along?
2. Do they share a vision for Monero's future?
3. Are there significant points of technical disagreement?
4. Does everyone agree on the development path (for example, that code review and optimization should precede "official" GUI development).
5. Does everyone agree on Monero's "governance model"?

The answers will influence Monero's probability of success and its price.

And Denmark seems to be the first one to ban cash.

The proposal to ban all cash transactions is being introduced ahead of the Danish election in September, in the hope that cash will be phased out as early as 2016.

Digital transactions are very popular in Denmark with a third of all Danish citizens  using the Danske Bank app, MobilePay, to pay for services and transactions. It’s unlikely that the new proposals to ban all cash transactions will be met with any opposition.

The Danish Chamber of Commerce (Dansk Erhverv) also supported the move, saying it was time shops were given the option of going cash-free.

[edited out massive quote]

The regulation is, unfortunately, likely to get much worse. Governments have declared a war on cash in general. Carry cash on you and police will seize it. The totalitarian endgame is for all money to exist on government computers under their control. Citizens will be able to request to send money to another account to pay someone. There will be no "withdrawals" at all. There will be crypto, precious metal coins, and barter available for outlaws, but get caught holding or transacting in non-government money and your assets will be seized and you'll be jailed. If we keep moving in this direction, it's doubtful that any viral use-case for crypto will arise.

But if people lose faith in government and governments lose control of money, then independent currencies may have their day in the sun.

Interest in privacy wont increase magically in one year or any time soon. And I'm not talking about privacy in crypto, but in general.  People love their spying windows 10, smartphones,  smart tvs, gmails, facebooks, twitters, paypals, and reward points on their credit cards. News agencies are spreading propaganda how /2015/08/01/opinions/rogers-encryption-security-risk/index.html] encryption is bad for government and police in general, and if you use encryption, it means you are probably hiding something bad, because everyone should be "an open book". Add to this "hiding" your financial transactions, and you are basically considered a criminal in the government's view.

So regular people will not start using monero for privacy reasons, they dont care. And people who are at least half-inteligent and want to save up some money outside spying eye of a governments or banks, will go to bitcoin or something with much larger market cap than 4mil. Its easy if you do one big transaction from time to time.  The only chance for monero, is to attract ppl that often use bitcoin for transaction and they would like to make transactions private. Making a lot of transactions, generating new address for each one or using some mixing services is troublesome, time-consuming and prone to mistakes. But this still seems as a lost cause.  Even in dnms they still use bitcoins. And no one cares that bitcoin's public blockchain had key role in taking down silk road. People just dont care that much about privacy, and even if some do, for most of them using bitcoins or litecoins is just 'good enough'.

For this too change, something major need to happen. Maybe some guy ala Snowden coming out from tax office or nsa and showing everyone how government is able to spy and track bitcoins now with their new fancy tracking algorithms and computers. Or maybe some comapny finally developing quantum computers and stilling all bitcions, as finding privet keys for each public key with quantum computers would be easy.

Yeah, that's why I say 2019 seems like a reasonable time for a breakthrough. The most convenient ramps are bitcoin ATMs. The market has driven the cost of these way down. It probably won't be more than a few years before every US city with more than 50,000 people has a bitcoin ATM. Before long, every gambling website will have a link that says "If you're an American, your bank will block you from sending money to us, but you can fund your account by going to the nearest bitcoin ATM and putting some cash in it and entering the following (human readable) code. Click here to find the nearest bitcoin ATM." And the gambling website will generate unique human readable deposit addresses for each user and each transaction so that "code" will never be blocked.

I see political risk as the main problem, not the lack of an obvious need. If the Chinese and American governments fight hard against bitcoin, then bitcoin ATMs could be outlawed and users will be forced by exchanges to submit tons of verification and describe exactly where all their money is going. The latter is already happening. I got several e-mails from Coinbase asking me to detail everything about where my bitcoin was going. If this trend continues, it's unlikely that a killer app could ever arise. Every use-case will just be choked out politically.

They can't really do any of that without fiat on-and-off ramps which are not only inconvenient but increasingly subject to being blocked by people using them for this.

It also requires a massive build out to get to the point of massive network effect (i.e. of money) where crypto is recognized as something you can just trade universally without needing to use on-and-off ramps constantly.

Note this is entirely different than email. With email only two people need to onboard in order to get the full value of the system. Remember when people used to ask "Do you have email" instead of "What's your email?" If the answer was yes, you were good to go in communicating with that person. You didn't need the rest of the world to switch over.


Okay so at a minimum we are looking at a few years of further development to build this and get it widely available and known before this wave of adoption can really occur. We agree on this then.

Bitcoin serves an obvious need: the need for gray markets to accept online payments. Escort agencies. Medical marijuana firms. Online gambling firms. Huge industries that have extreme difficulty in accepting payments or even maintaining banking relationships despite their services being technically legal. Countries where merchants have difficulty accepting Paypal payments.

Over the next few years, people will come up with one-click Walmart solutions to replace the current Coinbase ACH/localbitcoins.com labyrinthine hellscape that's preventing widescale adoption in those industries where apolitical payment processing is sorely need.

The difference is that email actually served a obvious need. (Remember of course this was before texting.) It was an obvious incremental improvement over faxing, which at the time was literally the only way to communicate asynchronously or to send documents, tables, etc. other than through the mail (slow) or overnight (expensive, and still kind of slow). Interestingly in some markets faxing survived longer because handwriting was more common than typing. Almost every single person involved in business had some need for this, and many individuals did too.

Crypto in its present form doesn't serve such a need. So it will at a minimum be quite some time until it evolves to the point that it can serve such an obvious need, and then it can go on an adoption ramp. Not happening imminently.

But e-mail required cheap computers, cheap modems, cheap internet access, etc. before it could really start spreading virally. There were a bunch of blockages. So IMO, bitcoin will not need 20 years to get a viral use-case going (if it ever will). Something polished and nice should come out closer to 10 years after invention. Perhaps 2019.