Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1770. (Read 3313576 times)

If no killer app and actual use emerges, then I agree that the speculative manias are finished.

But all the use-cases (remittances, black market trade, micropayments, etc.) at least one should become an easy-to-use, viral thing at some point. If it's like e-mail and takes 20-30 years from invention to viral spread among the general population then we (speculators) have all shown up to the party way too early.

But e-mail required cheap computers, cheap modems, cheap internet access, etc. before it could really start spreading virally. There were a bunch of blockages. So IMO, bitcoin will not need 20 years to get a viral use-case going (if it ever will). Something polished and nice should come out closer to 10 years after invention. Perhaps 2019.

Interest in privacy wont increase magically in one year or any time soon. And I'm not talking about privacy in crypto, but in general.  People love their spying windows 10, smartphones,  smart tvs, gmails, facebooks, twitters, paypals, and reward points on their credit cards. News agencies are spreading propaganda how /2015/08/01/opinions/rogers-encryption-security-risk/index.html] encryption is bad for government and police in general, and if you use encryption, it means you are probably hiding something bad, because everyone should be "an open book". Add to this "hiding" your financial transactions, and you are basically considered a criminal in the government's view.

So regular people will not start using monero for privacy reasons, they dont care. And people who are at least half-inteligent and want to save up some money outside spying eye of a governments or banks, will go to bitcoin or something with much larger market cap than 4mil. Its easy if you do one big transaction from time to time.  The only chance for monero, is to attract ppl that often use bitcoin for transaction and they would like to make transactions private. Making a lot of transactions, generating new address for each one or using some mixing services is troublesome, time-consuming and prone to mistakes. But this still seems as a lost cause.  Even in dnms they still use bitcoins. And no one cares that bitcoin's public blockchain had key role in taking down silk road. People just dont care that much about privacy, and even if some do, for most of them using bitcoins or litecoins is just 'good enough'.

For this too change, something major need to happen. Maybe some guy ala Snowden coming out from tax office or nsa and showing everyone how government is able to spy and track bitcoins now with their new fancy tracking algorithms and computers. Or maybe some comapny finally developing quantum computers and stilling all bitcions, as finding privet keys for each public key with quantum computers would be easy.

The problem is that other than speculation there is almost zero adoption, and it isn't coming any time soon.

And it terms of speculation people have a belief (whether correct or not, but largely correct) that "getting in early" is relative to other speculators. And of course you can't be ahead of other speculators if most of the coins are already owned by other speculators.

Also the timeframe of interest for most speculators is not 10-20 years, which is looking like something more realistic for end-user adoption. The only real attempt at crypto adoption we've seen so far was the retail acceptance that started last year (Overstock.com, etc.) and that has almost entirely flamed out (most of these retailers report usage down 80% or more, not growing).

I also have the perception that darknet use is way down from what it was. I base this not on anything from the crypto space at all, but from how many people from outside the traditional cryptospace I encounter who are buying drugs online. Many fewer are doing it now.

The stages of adoption are defined by what percentage of people have adopted the technology compared to the total at maturation. So the stage that we're in now really depends on how many people eventually end up using crypto rather than how many coins are emitted. Let's say bitcoin has 200,000 "real" users right now and that it has no real killer app right now BUT in the future, crypto will have 100 million users and it will be the way to send remittances, and the users don't care how many coins have been emitted. In that case we're innovators (in the first 2.5% of users) and there's still a chance for 100x or 200x gains. If no killer app emerges and the number of users dwindles down to 5000 cryptoanarchist nerds and internet drug dealers, then people adopting bitcoin today are in the late majority. We'll only know in retrospect.

I think the demand side is order(s) of magnitude more important. Bitcoin has had one halving, and yet it's gone up orders of magnitude over the years, not just 2x from when it initially got some market liquidity.

If privacy does not become a big concern in crypto over the next year, Monero will languish. Whenever privacy becomes a focus (even if well over a year from now), Monero could 10x or more pretty quickly.

The spreadsheet comparison with BTC is pretty easy for the block immediately after the halving. Both have emitted half their supply (base supply in the case of XMR) and both have per-block rewards that are half the original rate. It is almost identical, except that in the case of XMR the nominal emissions will continue to decline every block but in the case of BTC you have to wait another 4 years for another drop (though the rate of available supply inflation does decrease in both).

I think its hard to argue once (increasingly) more than half the coins are mined that there are too many coins being mined. Whatever coins you already own will never be diluted by more than 50% for example (in BTC; in XMR they will but only over decades), and that number is declining. You can't really be an early adopter with respect to supply if you are getting in well after that halfway point. This is somewhat psychological and largely subjective, but that's how I see people reacting to it.

Psychologically that probably played a role in Bitcoin's value appreciation around the halving, and also the increasing perception that it is too late to be a Bitcoin early adopter. I've heard this from many people; of course many try to argue the opposite and talk about how there is so much more to do, but the feeling is widely held. You don't see people buying up big stashes of BTC and then going out to actively evangelize the way you did <2013. You see investment and building and speculation, but not the early adopter stuff. That ship has sailed, and you only get one real shot at it.

I don't know. Where's that spreadsheet with XMR's emission compared to bitcoin's? IIRC, it's not until ~2018-2019 that XMR's yearly inflation approaches "low." But "low" is subjective.  I guess "soon" is also subjective. But I think we have years to go.

TrueCryptonaire, one of the worst pumpers and FUDers on this thread, is making some sense here.

Halftime is kind of a milestone.
Soon we will see if Monero will get any meaningful valuation or not.
Soon there is no excuses such as "the emission is too high for any higher price". Emission is not going to be high anymore and if the market cap will not start rising during the coming 1 year, it probably will not rise ever. There will be no momentum and then the scenario which is going to happen most likely will happen and the coin start to decline little by little as the "long time holders" start to empty their plastic bags from coins.
There is not much time for excuses anymore. Until these days we have been able to argue that the emission is high - in my opinion it is not that high anymore and especially as there will be only 100 % more coins to be mined (again, excluded the tail emission),

Development will mean much more than the emission curve but everyone here should be happy to be in by "halftime"

Here is the emission curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)#/media/File:Monero_coin_supply_and_inflation_over_time.png

At the end of year 2015, the emission starts slightly to decline. At the end of year 2017 it is declining quite fast. So if the demand stays at the current level, the price will go up when the supply declines.

That was a bit different since BTC supply halved from previous day.
Monero supply will halve from first day. And will be just tiny smaller then yesterday.
But it also decrease daily and not stay same for years as is in BTC case.

You're welcome. Opposed to Bitcoin, inflation wise nothing really happens with Monero. E.g. inflation of Bitcoin halves from 3600 BTC to 1800 BTC per day, whereas XMR's block reward just smoothly decreases further.

Regarding bolded, Bitcoin doubled a few months before it. Nothing really significant happened after it. I personally think XMR's figurative halving won't have a significant influence on the price.

thanks, that was fast, so monday is halving day then... BTC started a very nice move a month after it's halving day (28 november 2012)... also after a long period of relative calm. Let's see what XMR has to offer :-)

Here you go -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit

Credits to luigi1111.

Maybe off topic,

but I once saw a link to a file on google docs with the emission-schemes for bitcoin and monero compared... does anyone know where te find it? I think (excluding the tail emission) almost half of the monero's should be mined soon... Would like to see that file!

thanks in advance,

to the dumpsters http://webmshare.com/mDZx4

I'll pick some more up at 18

Its hard to guess the intentions of others. Maybe the person is broke and needs to liquidate their position to pay rent.

Can't imagine who would think it is a good idea to sell near .002 right now, but I certainly I appreciate it    .  Mr Kavasaki~san filing my coffers?  Whomever it is why don't we get a bit more brazen and show what a market maker you are!