I think one of the very worst arguments a person can makes goes like this:
I believe X, but they believe Y therefore they are stupid and I will laugh at them.
The reason it's bad in particular is it not even an argument. It is just a judgement on people who see things differently.
I am in the camp (to an extent) that you are making fun of and belittling. I believe this time *IS* different (nuance: I believe every time has been different). But I also have a LOT of nuance in my beliefs. If you read what I have posted you would see I have made arguments against S2F for example.
I have publicly said that I think another 80%+ pullback is EXTREMELY unlikely. (Nuance: I accept the reality that I might be wrong and we will see bitcoin go to ~13500). Because this time *IS* different. The difference is we have a growing number of people who see Bitcoin is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they will be there to buy it as it goes lower. They are going to create a floor that is more difficult to breech than past cycles. To go to 13k we will have to cross 30k first. Nuance: dropping below 30k is a VERY REAL possibility, as it is the next real area of support.
There are billionaires who feel like they missed the best opportunity of a lifetime, and if presented even half of a second chance they will come in.
I think there just are so few paths that lead to <15k. Where in the past there was very little to stop an 80-90% pullback.
Another argument that supports that view is we have not increased the amount that we did in past "cycles". In the past a 90% drop literally followed a 1000x rise. If you are still counting in "cycles" then you will notice that this was only a 3x rise. so why wouldn't we have a bear that matches? Nuance: or that this bull is actually not over!
I still think the most likely possibility is we see the highs and lows continue to tighten up as we steadily rise. It takes a LOT more money to move Bitcoin because it represents SO much money now. Likewise it takes greater effort to drop it as well.
I will also joke about hopium as I express my ideas because I know that I am not a fortune teller and I do not know the future. There is a non-zero chance that Bitcoin has reached the highest relative value it ever will, and it's all down from here. Nuance: I think this is particularly unlikely.
Also I have no need to "cope" about anything. I have been in Bitcoin since 2011. And I have, for the most part, NEVER SOLD. The main reason for this is I am just not a trader. If I were I might be much more wealthy, but it is more likely I would have less than I have now. Nuance: I have nothing to cope with here because I have accepted 80+% drops as a significant possibility for over a decade and even survived a few of them.
Monero is the only other coin I hold. And it is a slave to bitcoin. The chances of it flipping bitcoin as are the generally popular narratives out there are fairly outlandish in my opinion. Nuance: I am not belittling those with whom I disagree about this. But I continue to hold some value in Monero because I believe it is extremely undervalued, and in time will be worth much more.
To clarify my position, I do not think we go down tons more.. I think it is MOST likely we drop to ~30k at the furthest, and resume a gentle upward grind after that... But I also see significant possibilities that we breach 30k, or that we get an explosive upswing that resumes the bull portion of this "cycle". Nuance: I just give each of those scenarios less weight than the first one.
So, we might be in for a long Bitcoin winter where we go under 15k. Or not. My money will stay exactly where it is in either case... AND I congratulate those with the balls and foresight to sell close to the top of this bull. Sometimes I wish I was wired that way, but I am not. And from my vantage point it has worked out fairly fucking well for me in spite of that.