Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 14. (Read 3313070 times)

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 38) IS OUT NOW!

It's got a few things in it that may interest you guys this week!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-38

Reasonable...  And just so you know, I think you are doing fine.  I cannot speak for smooth, but I would guess his complaints are different than mine.  For me recently the absolute free for all of assholes has been astonishing.  But some of these are old timers that has seemed to break recently... dunno why.  Also the influx of loquacious noobs has been interesting.

These two things tend to happen at the bottom of cycles.  Since we are not at the bottom of a cycle right now (just judging by time alone) then that makes it interesting.

Also interesting is the sustained unusual Monero action.  Boy I hope we can keep some traction here...  It's long overdue for the king of the shitcoins to take his throne.

We are horrible human beings!

I blame cAPSLOCK and Heuristic

Volume picking up recently.

Looking at the price action, I feel like there's huge money behind Monero right now.  And I don't mean spot but derivatives.  I think open interest for XMR hasn't reached these levels before.  I mean it's not really that high but it's +33% at Binance today, +98% at Okex, up 76% at Kraken..  Hmmm...  I feel like we could we see 1k soon?

https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest

Good grief if it made any LESS sense it would be entirely random.  And yet there are enough relevant nouns in it to know that whatever algorithm produced it was tuned in SLIGHTLY to this thread.

Odd.

What are you spamming garbage for a sig campaign?

In my opinion, the next Monero Coin is still good with a price that is not much different from last year. Today, Monero is still priced at over $300. Today's price is down 4% due to some popular coins also dropping. I saw last night the market turned red from BTC and others. That's reasonable, and hopefully until the end of the year Monero prices will continue to be stable in the market.

It's more looking like a bug for the most serious use cases.  IMHO.  And I don't get what you mean when you say 'base layer' and 'settlement layer'..  Are you talking about L1?

And it's not 'we'll see fees rise naturally'.  It's more like the fees will need to rise, naturally or artificially to keep the whole thing going.  If not, number go up stops.  But yeah, it will be an interesting couple of years going to the next halving.

I don't want this post to be combined with the last one.  So I am starting a new one.  But I assume it will still get combined.

I have been looking at the areas of interest between here and 500 USD.


Looks like they are coming in at ~:

250
275
300
350

Plus/Minus a little.  

But after 350 there's very little gonna hold us back.

What's it gonna feel like if we make it back into that open sky.

Next I am gonna do some analysis of the BTCXMR pair.  So someone post something to make fun of THIS post so I can make that it's own post too!

Cup and handle formations have been some of my favorite indicators in the past few years, particularly with Monero.  This is largely in part because they are typically accurate, and play out.

Well Since I have covid I have been spending some time during my misery playing with charts.

Gentlemen.

If this one play out... Boy oh boy.  And I think that since this is based on the XMRUSD chart then that implies a little influence via BTC.  This is one of those perfect storm type things that if it plays out... well look at this:



What I do not have is the right kind of chart here to measure how far up it might go.  But my back of the napkin sort of math says this...  If it can do the 2x needed to complete the handle (from here, roughly) then we havea cup stretching from ~$40 to $520.  That is a 13x.  So a 13x from $520?  $6760.

That means in this overly bullish scenario that we could see a rocket of nearly 30x from where we are right now.

Wow.  And sorry for jinxing it!


Edit!  I went searching for some extra premium conformation bias fuel on trading view and found this "Don Yakka" fellow.  He seems to have seen the same thing I am seeing, but with better squigglies, AND he's projecting further up into the 8k range!  So there's that!



Also you can load some more candles and see the price breaking out of that downward wedge he has on the handle:

No one goes there anymore, its always busy - Yogi Berra

Only banks.

And we WILL see everyone in BTC migrating to Lightning or even to other coins like Monero Who would pay $100 fees?

I see more nuance here than you, I think.

Bitcoin's transparency is a feature and a bug.  And I think that we will see improvements to privacy on the base layer as well as transactional layers.

As to the fees complaint.  If the bitcoin base layer begins to act like the settlement layer then I see no problem with it continuing to attract miners for decades.

Currently the Block subsidy is ~265k USD worth.  @265000/2500.  Fees per transaction would only have to reach around a hundred bucks to replace that.  That is totally doable in my opinion.

Because Bitcoin is optimizing for SECURITY and not cheapness of fees, then we WILL see fees rise.  Naturally.  And since it is aiming to do other functions (like simple transactions) on layers then we will still be able to buy coffee with it, etc.

At a glance, I agree it seems counterintuitive for Bitcoin not to continue to work the way it has since the beginning...  even Satoshi said he thought we could keep fees at zero for a long time but something HAS to give.  And the way we are headed fees will go up.  This is to keep the base layer distributed as well as possible.

Monero on the other hand... the contributors have positioned it to be a low fee transactional chain so fees may not go up.  It's a bit of a catch 22 actually.  Monero, if transactions continue to grow along side bitcoin, will end up much more centralized than Bitcoin. as running nodes will become more and more difficult as we go forward.  Monero has chosen to risk some centralization  to keep fees low.

I do not see this as an X or Y scenario.  Rather I believe Monero will work along side Bitcoin.  And POSSIBLY even be Bitcoins defacto privacy layer.  Hard to say.

I still don't understand your way of thinking, though. You say that Bitcoin covers the SoV part, but Monero is much better as a MoE. What's the purpose of storing value in Bitcoin if it's not used as MoE? That's its only purpose.

Ffs guys just start being real to yourselves.  XMR is what most people think BTC really is supposed to be.  And it's not just that, there are flaws in BTC that maxis won't ever question...  Like the dwindling mining incentives after every halving.  We really can't expect BTC to run on just the fees for how many transactions per block.

Back to XMR, it's extremely undervalued IMHO as it does something very useful unlike 90% of crypto.  That's why it's so frustrating that it ain't even in the top 20 or the top 10 where it should belong.  But then I guess in way it's better to be away from the spotlight as much as possible.  Again my hot take:  XMR will rise in CMC during the bear market.  

Lol.  You might have a point.

I'm trying to remember when it wasn't.

I've got nothing.