Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1938. (Read 3314330 times)

I'm a big fan of Martins work. I know @rpietila is familiar with him...that is why I refered to Risto with the question. It would be interesting to hear his opinion.

Regarding offshore funds moving....this is only a small piece of cake so to speak. As Martin writes in one of his last blog posts we are headed toward electronic money. No, that most certanly won't be btc but its purpose will be taxing small people. So what is the solution? Xmr? Maybe, but there are people that see certain flaws in xmr privacy (weak points for that matter) I have no knowlege in coding for evaluating coins privacy so all I can do is trust people with reputation in coding. For now that is xmr dev team but maybe something better will come down the pipe in a year or two. There is not much time left however.

I also think that seeing sub-.002 will be short-lived if it even ventures that far. Many that already sold in the 30's (and on the break of 28) are going to be fighting each other for what little liquidity that appears on the orderbook. Now, if they were traders to begin with, then they probably don't care whether or not they reacquire the same number of coins prior to the run up, however, prospects still appear attractive in the privacy niche for higher prices than what are currently being traded at. It will be interesting to see what happens in terms of all the off-book BTC should price pop back up above 28 or even past 30 again and whether or not you seeing chasing to re-establish position sizes. After all, from a mere trader's perspective, buying at 30 flat to sell at 39-40 is over a 30% return in what would appear a very probable trade.

I'm less concerned with the move down than many, simply due to the area we're currently in being a very reasonable pullback area for price after the rise. I'm not normally a fan of Elliot waves, but if XMR really is in a long-term uptrend, the move from sub .001 to .0043 would be wave 1 and we're currently rapidly approaching the ideal end of wave 2 (final area very loose).

For TrueCryptonaire, or whoever it was, that is saying sub-.001 again in the future, perhaps. After all, it's a probability no different than price hitting .01. The difference is that me (and I'm sure others) would love to throw a 100 BTC order at that price to scoop up 100k worth of XMR.

As for emissions, they still need to come down substantially but I also don't think that absorbing 150 BTC, as would be the case at .01, is that unrealistic. I guess I don't think $35k/daily is a lot of money in the grand scheme of things.

From a pure hedge perspective, excluding all the non-POW coins, XMR built from a different codebase makes sense. There is nothing wrong with clones of Bitcoin's codebase (until there is). There really isn't another player in the cryptonote space that makes a viable hedge. Just a sea of anemic (or dead) projects. Bytecoin isn't viable due to distribution and I think that's reflective of lack of trading volume on top of little exchange exposure.

Full disclosure, I own both Dash and Monero. This isn't a post to start the debate up between either again. It's still far too early to even declare a winner but I have always stated that the privacy niche and fungability of crypto is of the utmost importance.

Finally, there are really two primary events that could happen in the POW altcoin world that could spark massive flows, excluding Bitcoin-related scenarios:

1. The first POW coin to overtake LTC's positioning as second to BTC (only a matter of time IMHO).
2. The first privacy-centric coin to overtake Dash/Darkcoin (not saying this will or won't be the case, but the title has long been in the DRK/DASH camp and it will certainly be mentioned repeatedly should another coin overtake it).

There is a lot of "dead" money tied up in Litecoin that could be repurposed.

TC is pretty easy to read, actually I'm pretty sure it's purposely done.

You see, TC is in buying mode right now. Not when it's cheaper.

I distinctly remember the good old trollbox days in the first half of last year when there were no less than three or four flip flops a day on whether or not Monero was going down or up, based on whether or not TC was buying or selling.

Personally, I find the mannerism so transparent that I've disregarded it as bs.

Right here:


And here:

Literally translates to me as:


Personally, it just doesn't seem so offensive to me at least.

we should start an "XMR all in club"

Oh no! What if there is another one in the world (what a sobering thought  ) who is interested? Although the probability is very slim given that there are only 7+ billion people in the world and that Monero is the best coin, but still....

The price might make another 4x if another person joins in!

Prepare yourselves!!!1

the rise from 0.001 to 0.0045 i think was one new investor-bagholder in xmr. now naturally return to 0.001-0.002 area

I have been working on an assessment of the possibility of offshore funds moving into this (or another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome.

The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012!  Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc.

With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency.

In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question

 

I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities.

I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017.

So yes, both are possibilities.

What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%.

I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further! 

I had just read the main Monero thread before this one and when first reading TC's last posts I thought he was primer-, their avatars are similar.

I appreciate the other contributions here.  I have been buying at the current prices and it seems I now need to buy more btc.

Don't give that TrueCryptionaire any of your attention, since it's a scarce resource better spent on other stuff anyway. Not worth anyone's time, I personally stopped it a long time ago. "Newbie's"/beginning interested investors/speculators will poke right through this inept 'manipulation' with even the littlest due dilligence.

Anyways, as for what I'm thinking will happen:
The downtrend seems to be slowing down, some buys trickled in the mid 20 range to counter the selling action. By the looks of it, it seems like casual speculators are getting (back?) on board. (market buys with higher spreads, bids in 'different' places)

My earlier prediction of 23 range being the bottom still stands. If you look at the historic graph you see a lot of bounces of this resistance line, it has proven itself numerous times. I strongly believe we will see another stab at this level, and tbh wouldn't be surprised to see a double bottom form here. I have my bids around 0.00235 but have been contemplating whether to move them up a little bit more, to increase my chances a little bit more catching them here.

If 23 breaks on high volume for a longer period of time (ie a day or more) 2 things can happen. Either we pierce straight through the 21,5-22 to visit the 18 area (albeit briefly), or we will see a hefty fight in the early 20's. Historically a lot of resistance showed up in this area, combined with the fib counts i think this level will turn out to be real tricky for the bears.

For me personally it's not worth the risk to hope for that ultralow 20s buy in spot for an extra amount of xmr looking at the risks (missing out and having to buy in the 26 and thus losing 15%). But every situation is different. I was fortunate to sell quite high and have been gradually buying back in the 20s range with a lot of weight in the lower 20s (the 235 level). I just want my stash loaded up again before the next leg up starts, which I think won't be that far out. If this situation described above unfolds and a next wave builds, 43 will be an easy target and we can try to look for mid/end 50's.

I know you guys need an exit, therefore you are attacking me and attempting to pump the price.  

I had the same feeling. I have the urge to squeeze a little more XBT out of my purse for XMR.  

Ignore button (or mental ignore button) please.

It tells you something meaningful when an opinion changes 180° in a couple of hours. Interpret accordingly.

This thread is filtered for on-topic or off-topic. It isn't filtered for only well-constructed or well-informed opinions.

An opinion that changed 180° in a couple of hours?

It is not his opinion, he just tells us that he is trying to sell or is trying to buy cheaper. There is zero information in his postings beside his side in the market.

I can't read his trash anymore.

Let's try to keep the personal attacks out of here. Agree or disagree with TrueCryptonaire he was expressing an opinion about price action. That's fair game for the thread..

Good news, go away.

Sub 0.001 is possible, but if Monero is being developed actively, it will go back up sooner or later.

You're really a disgrace for this community. Suddenly you turned from Monero will surpass Bitcoin in a few years to permabear and you're affecting new (potential) investors with this blatant troll-like price manipulation. If you don't have anything useful to say, please stay away here.

I always thought you were a troll trying to manipulate the price, but to be so blatant--subtlety is not your art.

Now it is time to focus on other things than buying the coin. No idea of catching the falling knife especially when the knife has not fallen that much.
Personally what I have done is to pay all the bills and stacking up fiat.
I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.
No point in buying a coin that only has so high probability to go down at this point.
Better to buy when the price is low, and not necessarily even at low price if it is on the way to 0.