Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1941. (Read 3314330 times)

Rebalance, get comfortable with a position that allows you to sleep at night, and take care of your personal career, etc. needs. Monero will still be here later when you have income, and if it isn't, then you didn't miss anything. Plus as you said there are more ways to contribute than just buying.

Many of us are in the same boat as you.  Its always better to redistribute a bit after making nice gains IMHO.

I have to confess I have been selling some of my stash over the past few days.

Why? Because I had about >95% of my total worth in XMR, which I know is an insane proportion. I still have a comfortable amount of XMR. I held for so long at a loss during last August-December, never selling a single XMR and buying more instead. I can't endure that again, so the opportunity to temporarily exit some of my position while I'm still above water is why.

I am about to attend a coding bootcamp for 18 weeks and will have no income during this time, so I can't take that much risk. Anyway, I will be seeking to apply knowledge as a developer and I plan to contribute more in the future beyond just buying & using XMR.  

Why did I post this? So you know it's not some botnet miner dumping coins. Just life happening to someone that is very enthusiastic about Monero. Carry on.  

Edit: For reference, I am done selling XMR. Doesn't matter where the price goes, I hold what I have now.

$30,000...

IF there wasn't the scenario of Monero becoming a monetary system for 10,000,000s of people at minimum, with the corresponding rise to $10,000/XMR or more, I would not be spending my time on it!

Your thinking may hold true as long as nothing changes, but something needs to change in order to realize the vision.

"The waiting is the hardest part" - Tom Petty

Ill grant you something dreamspark. The capacity to absorb a given level of inflation is a really great way to think about valuation. Its something of a much needed anchor point in a world where nothing is really real. I love crypto, it is many things, but real isn't one of them.

I'd guess that it could hold 150 BTC daily inflation for under 10 days before the selling pressure becomes overwhelming.

This I can agree with, it is for sure one of the few projects with real merit. Unfortunately in a speculator driven market that doesn't count for much. The majority of people use alts for the sole purpose of generating btc, particualry the whales who can move and hold markets. Thefore the economic principles (high inflation) that actually are a good thing for the distribution of the coin generally count against it in terms of speculatory gains. It still holds that in the future it can be a serious contender in the crypto space but with alts the money comes and goes into coins very quickly. My point is just from a speculators point of view there are plenty of other oppurtunities to make gains. XMR really isn't a traders coin, its an investment and thats a good thing as long as you treat it so.

I still don't think it could outpace the inflation, this is due to a few reasons such as Ive said before where the majority of coins are mined at a very small cost to the miners. Even a 4x from here (which is a small rise in alt terms) to a price of 0.01 means 150btc daily inflation, I find it very hard to make an argument where XMR could hold that level of inflation for a significant period.

It is also the 2nd Fibonacci level, the (by far) the most important retracement level. A bottom there would be an extremely strong sign for the future.

Winning that fight is just a matter of time.

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We have broken the 0.0028, and have been flirting with the next resistance level. I still believe the 0.0023 range is a very good candidate for being the bottom of this correction. I don't see us being below 0.002 for a long time since it's just a too good of a spot to buy in. If it does get there it will bounce of 0.0018 swiftly I guess.

A lot of money on the sidelines is waiting this one out. There's a lot of events that can trigger a bullrun, which will be explosive. Besides the usual suspects (ie exploit, zero cash, unexpected error/fork, cryptographic failure etc) there are less beartriggers in the short term. The biggest fight here is the inflation, which is one we're gradually winning...

Actually, I think that's not only possible but very likely that people miss the (initial) train. I think that lots of people, including those working at financial institutions, think that they will get some BTC "later" when the infrastructure and regulation is more mature and when the inflation rate is much lower and after more people are shaken out. But these people won't gradually buy more as time goes on. That's far too rational. I believe that these people will chase hot markets in the near to mid-term and will continue to ignore cryptocurrencies for years. Their investors and upper management won't be happy with unpopular cryptocurrency investments. Then, one day, people are going to suddenly and collectively realize that 85 or 90% of all BTC/XMR/[insert non-shitcoin] has been mined, the inflation rate is 1%, and the price has already gone up 3x in a month before they even realized it.

It's one of a tiny minority of projects that actually has merit and utility. As such it deserves the capitalization that is currently held by all the scams and clones. Maybe that wont happen, but since it ought to, there is a reasonable chance that it will. If it were to absorb the capitalization of the scams and clones, than this would significantly outpace the inflation. Heck just the self destructive tendencies of dark alone could lead to a 5x gain tomorrow. I'm not saying its going to happen, but it definitely could.

The thing with XMR is as I said previously for a speculator there isn't that much upside. The chances of the price x5 and staying there while inflation is at the level it is is very small. In the long distance future there is the potential for large gains but its not like its going to happen overnight and you miss the train. Face it, hardly any alts are actually used there is a very high probability that by the time XMR reaches the level where serious gains are likely there very may well be a better crypto that suits the same niche with quicker development etc etc. People speak like this coin can't die but that depends on what you mean by dead. Will its trading volume go to 0? Unlikely. Will the price slide and the general interest around the coin die out. Much much more likely. Its very hard to find a reason to load the boat up now, much better to watch from the sidelines, the risk reward just isn't there.

Sorry but it's true that I don't want to buy materially more unless it drops below 200ksat. So without intending to sound bearish, this wish to have lower prices (as they finally seem possible) might unconsciously weigh in the analysis ...

lol who let the bears out? 
i buy more if i manage to, dont care if i pay 60 or 50 cents. the lower the better

12%, 15%, 30% success rate, we all together can make a difference!

which time frame do you consider as "mid term"?
i will hold my moneroj at least the next 12 months

If people are risk averse they can also use dollar cost averaging to mitigate risk.  i.e. buymonero.net  I think its a good way to obtain XMR at this stage of Monero.

If we think of the general population, it is hard to say which they fear more - the losses, or the gains.

Think of your own investing history - if you sell a stock after it has lost 10-20%, and let the winners run, you are loss-averse. This is a more winning proposition that the other, which is more popular: selling the winners after 20% and waiting patiently for the losers to gain the target, and then liquidating them.

With XMR, neither approach brings good results. The scenario profile is very much weighted towards low-probability high-payoff scenarios. So selling prematurely only kills your gains. Also the short-term movements to the downside are not very indicative of a reduced potential to achieve the gains in the future. It is not possible to deem XMR "a loser" if it drops 20% or even if it drops 90%+ from the previous high.

Since even I - as the foremost XMR economist - cannot evaluate if the coin ends up losing, except by putting a probability figure of 85%, you should also be wary of making judgements about certainties. Certainty does not exist.

I strongly disagree with any long-term strategy that includes a possibility of selling at a loss. I cannot find any purpose for such.

The best approach to the gains that I can think of, is methodical selling at predetermined price points, so that the whole schedule is set in stone beforehand. This is even more important for those who initially hold a significant percentage of their wealth in XMR. Setting the percentages such that after a 1000-fold gain you still have 10% and after a 1,000,000-fold gain, 1% is a good rule of thumb. If such scenario unfolds, it is important to learn to handle money.

Even if long periods of stagnation happen, you should not sell prematurely, wrecking the plan. Also I don't advise to buy back, except perhaps after a significant 75% or more decline compared to last selling price.