Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1942. (Read 3314330 times)

I tend to agree. (  ) Mostly.

"True change in trend" is definitely achieved, there is very little chance to hit new lows below 0.001.

But I also note that we turned back from the trading range in 0.003-0.004, and are now sliding down. The previous trading range was in 0.001-0.002.

In my position, buying more does not objectively make sense unless it goes back to the previous range. And if not, then we'll evaluate the situation again. My position is big enough already to not really FOMO.

A real uptrend does require a new ATH. Waiting for that before buying is otoh not very smart, same number of coins can be had at 25% the price now and should be bought and forgotten instead of waiting.

Dumping now does not make sense because the downside is limited, upside unlimited. Except a very short term play with a tiny position, which most people cannot even execute, and those who can are too rich to care.

If we take a long enough timeframe, it is more likely that Monero will fail than succeed. Statistics say so. I have said and repeat that imo, the chances of gaining purchasing power by investing into XMR are about 15% in 10 years. In 85%, you will lose, in most cases all. If you think otherwise, you are more bullish than me (and I am generally regarded as a proponent).

If it will not die, I agree that the chances to replace Bitcoin do exist, although I see that both coins serve a purpose and coexistence is much more likely.

Monero is still the best EV asset I have found. What is considered "overweight" is anybody's opinion. For those who don't have much to lose (high-earning potential, low-net worth informed individuals), going wildly overweight is a rational choice. For us older folks who need to preserve the existing wealth, have tax concerns related to asset reallocation, etc., even a small investment brings the same benefits.

If you invest 100% into Monero, you are prone to sell a lot after a relatively small gain of 10x, 4x or even 2x. If you invest 1%, you can wait for meaningful gains. I invested only 1% into Bitcoin, which was a mistake theoretically, but it enabled me to stay calm and only partially cash out after 200x gains.

So it does not much matter how much you invest, and what percentage (and especially at what price, which is the least meaningful thing of all). Sitting tight is the thing you need, which most lack.

Sitting tight in the face of 1000x gains that are only realized in 15% probability, with many FUD in between.

Place your bets, gentlemen 

No offence but both of these scenarios are ludicrous. As extreme scenarios, neither of them are likely, and neither are there any logical reasons as to why it should be a binary 'either/or' situation.

It is unlikely that the dark sector can eclipse the transparent sector in regards to global adoption, and right now there is no logical reason as to why Monero would drop the ball as the de facto leader in the dark sector.

Yes, it has to show some real strength in order to have a true change in trend.
Personally I am refusing to support these levels now.
If there is a buy wall, it is a good chance to dump, not pump - IMO. And this is the situation currently (I say this because I am speculating some trolls appears later and reposts these words of mine).

In the future I don't know... Most likely Monero will die, chances for this is still pretty high.
However if it will not die, it will go to sky highs and replaces bitcoin (marketcapwise).

I don't suggest overweighting in Monero. Remember the diversification among the assets. I am not available for buying Monero since I am preparing other business right now totally unrelated to Monero.

I thought when we are speculating about the long-term being bearish we mean in the future not the past.

Were you really anticipating an all time high from this last uptrend?
and because it did not hit an all time high which was virtually impossible, now its going down?

Hopefully we have a strong uptrend after the summer.  Sorry fluffypony, northern hemisphere bias.

Which exchange? I remember the ATH being around 96.

Also, in my book, if something goes up then it's bullish - we don't need a new ATH for the sentiment to change.

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

that's true. i often notice it the other way as well. on days where coinmarketcap is a sea of red monero will be the only green.

what does this tell us?



Monero is different 

im not making the same mistake i made last time. the more the price dips the more i buy this time. if there are very many other people like me out there, than no.

A bit pissed off cause although i anticipated the drop for days i anyway bought a few  XMR around 0.003.

Oh well. As fluffy says 1 XMR is 1 XMR

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

It is far more likely they got burned twice, first by selling XMR at or near the low and then by buying DRK/DASH at or near its high. Expand this chart all the way to August 2014 and see. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash.

I prefer to buy from the sell low hoping to buy lower crowd and then take delivery, sit back and hold.
Edit: The best way to squeeze the shorts is to buy, take delivery and then simply do nothing and wait.

Actually that's probably not quite true. I would hazard a guess that a lot of people who got burned trying to 'sell to buy back' decided to temporarily jump on the Darkcoin train, riding it up to its peak before dumping and rejoining the XMR train later on, with a slight XMR profit to boot. 

Whether such a move can be replicated this time remains to be seen.

In these circumstances, the above requires either that a large number of people who believe in Monero are willing to sell at a loss, or that no new money enters in at least 1 month, and the existing holders don't pick the ball.

I would say the first one is not going to happen. The second one might, but then 0.0018 is not a magic number. The turn upwards happens once the money starts flowing again. Monero is such an interesting project that I am not betting against that.

We agree on 0.0018 being the floor, at which the existing holders are happy to buy all the emission without regard to new money or not.

(The speculation case that "speculators sell" is not included because every sane speculator already sold at 0.003 (at a loss  ); also the "sell in order to buy back" was so recently proven stupid that only the ones who could avoid it have any XMR now )

Hopefully, smart mining makes mining a) decentralized and b) virtually unprofitable for everyone.

Nope, I still got all my coins but I bought them when they were a lot higher.

Luckily I bought them with profit from other trades so I don't really mind what happens with them, the market for it seems pretty dead tho.

We could also never see 0.0018 again, who knows, I wouldn't mind picking up some more <0.002 coins tho

Hope this coincides with a dip in Bitcoin.

cheap coins soon!

we could very likely go back to 0.0018