Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2020. (Read 3314325 times)

I was thinking about this a little bit today after I read ArticMine's post. I came to the conclusion that us getting added to cryptsy will make it a whole lot easier for Darkcoin users/investors to convert their Darkcoins to Moneroj (because most of the trading is done there).

Getting on ShapeShift should also be a priority. We are the highest on the following list to not be on there: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

I am also watching it closely.  I began by wondering why there is so much action in that coin with what seem like obvious achilles heel issues (insta/premine, semi-centralized mixing) as well as being a bit overcomplicated.

I thought maybe after the big drop after the rebranding there might be a dead cat bounce, but I was too chicken to buy as I was not sure we'd see a bounce, especially with what looked like artificial whale support.  Turns out I am glad I didn't.

But to our topic.  It will certainly benefit the monero blockchain if DRK continues to lose steam.  Still, the network effect there is strong.

rpietila , have you ever tried to communicate with BTC-e about adding XMR? Has anybody else done that? I noticed they delisted xpm,trc and ftc because of low volume but i am certain xmr could have a fairly good volume once listed there. I also know that they have told before that they certainly are not going to add DRK but have they ever talked about xmr?

I think measuring the bid and ask books is quite good sign if there is a desire to buy or sell the coin.
That being said, it is the easiest and probably the cheapest way to manipulate the markets.
On the other hand, being it mere manipulation or not, this has been pretty good tool in predicting if the coin is in bull or bear trend. On the other hand, it is not the way one should try to predict the turning point since in turning point the bid-ask-ratio start to move to the opposite direction.

I am open with my goal: by trolling I try to manipulate other participants in the markets to readjust their buy orders.
Also if your hands are strong, it might be a good thing for the long term to reap as many coins from the weak hands as possible. Typically you are more efficient in this goal by buying cheaper rather than more expensive.

1. "The minimal point" The possible outcome spectrum includes cases that it will fail totally in any short or longer period of time, with small or high probability. The recent rise has lowered the the probability of total loss from market related reasons, but done hardly anything to the technology-related total loss. Instead of asking, how low it can go (to which the only honest answer is zero), some kind of lower probability threshold should be agreed upon, eg. "Going how low is less than a 5% probability in 30 days" and then remembering that we already experienced such an event last year, because the probabilities add up quickly (if you flip a d20 daily for months, it will eventually show a "1").

That said, there is a support in 180-200k which currently seems that we will orderly retreat to. Below that the whole trading area from 93-180k is a support as well. So the prospect of breaking 100k from the upside is rather remote, meaning that the uptrend is a reality in a great majority of cases, regardless what happens to the price as long as it stays above my announcement level (115k).

2. "Numbers in bids/asks have moved". This does not testify to anything except the manipulator cleverness and should be discarded as a piece of evidence of anything. Trades, on the other hand seem real, and I have not smelled trading-between-own-accounts during my career there. (I know this better than most because I know the trades where I was a counterparty, leaving much fewer possibilities for foul players to paint the tape with the few large trades where I was not).

3. "Whether you should readjust the buy lower." Depends 100% on what your objectives are.

4. "generalizethis' analysis". Correct, imo.

It was in the 4hr interview somewhere. The host said cryptsy was currently working on implementing it, and thus voting wasn't necessary anymore.

How sure are you of this? People have been saying this since september..

Yes.  The roadmap is a juggernaut and we'll be on Craptsy soon(tm).

I'm assuming whoever is doing the majority of buying doesn't want a pump inflating the price too much and limiting their accumulation. So based on that assumption, I would guess that this is a retracement and the price will bump and grind its way up to a price the accumulators are happy with, unless another large investor, or investors, gets involved or un-involved. I just like that it appears that more investors than traders are buying based on the action not getting too pump and dumpy.

Vid guy just wanted to hurt XMR or Risto--sad.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.

There is of course the "out of the blue" possibility that Darkcoin may take another "Dash" to the downside. Darkcoin still has over 3x the capitalization of Monero and the markets seem to respond to any drop in DRK by buying XMR. I say anyone in the XMR/XBT market still needs to play very close attention to DRK/XBT especially if they are planning on buying XMR.
 
Edit: One of the reasons why I was not surprised by the recent XMR upward move is because I am watching DRK closely.

you guys think a $5 per XMR could be a realistic target  this year?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

you should ask this is the Polo trollbox.

What do you mean by soon?

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

CKG (in game gold) is going to be listed on a cryptocurrency exchange. So you can buy gold in-game then trade it. It is also possible to trade in-game assets p2p.

But you can't withdraw funds from the game, right? So how do you get a return?

'Better' is pretty subjective. You can increase your return by playing, but also decrease it by playing poorly. Still investing passively has a pretty good return under the current (previous) rules. That may change somewhat as CKG gets diluted by proof-of-play under the new online version.