[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2068.

bigj

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Quote from: binaryFate on February 10, 2015, 08:05:21 AM

Quote from: GingerAle on February 10, 2015, 08:00:41 AM

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

Not sure what you mean with the capital part?
"No demand": well there is some, or price would be zero.
"Inherent value": this is extremely subjective...

I believe he refers to the kind-of-stable Monero price -- even though a large USD volume of fresh XMR coins is generated every month. In short, that means people (in particular miners) are holding/not selling their Moneroj - waiting for better times probably. To me, this is a rare and promising pattern :-)

binaryFate

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Still wild and free

Quote from: GingerAle on February 10, 2015, 08:00:41 AM

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

Not sure what you mean with the capital part?
"No demand": well there is some, or price would be zero.
"Inherent value": this is extremely subjective...

GingerAle

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Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: smooth on February 10, 2015, 06:01:20 AM

I'm allowing the discussion of DRK vs. XMR to continue for now

A prudent move. We cannot speculate on Monero's future without discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of it's #1 competitor. As long as the conversation is civil and informative, it should continue.

mmortal03

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Quote from: ArticMine on February 09, 2015, 10:03:21 PM

Quote from: jehst on February 09, 2015, 08:31:48 PM

In the end, if DRK does well, it brings attention to the privacy niche. People who look into the privacy niche more will eventually find out about XMR.

Maybe, but there are many examples where the superior technology simply lost. The current reality is that DRK has over 7x the capitalization and 20x the volume. So unless the message of the superior XMR privacy technology gets out it could be to late. The reality is that XMR has many advantages over DRK including:

In this case, 7x the capitalization and 20x the volume is still relatively small. All Monero needs is to convince a handful of millionaires to buy in to it, and the market cap gap would be overcome. For instance, I know that if I won the lottery that I'd buy some XMR over DRK, lol.

nakaone

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regarding market cap - drk is designed to (artificially) store due to the masternode concept. the number of masternodes will even grow over the next year due to the incentive system. the free floating supply is (artificially) scarce as well. therefore it started to appreciate and will likely do over some period of time.

when you compare this to the 7,x million moneroj flying around which at this point of time with little exception have no other purpose than hodling or trading + the high level of inflation it is clear why monero is suffering compared to drk.

all that said the drk economic model will probably implode when they realize that there is no real world purpose for this coin. bitcoin will be there for real world transaction which can be transparent or semi private. for real private transfer there will be monero or a not-now existent sufficient private coin.

the debate that a not-technical sufficient private will succeed was put in lenghts on this thread. this will probably not be the case since the utility of privacy is non-elastic. it is not comparable to watching a movie.

as I said I can be wrong and therefore hedged (a long time ago) monero with some darks.

smooth

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I'm allowing the discussion of DRK vs. XMR to continue for now but let's try keep it substantive and avoid name calling.

smooth

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Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

At least with DRK you have outside merchants and liquidity...

This is nonsense.

1. Bitcoin has far more merchants than DRK but the actual volume of non-speculative activity is relatively negligible, no more than a few percent. DRK is at least an order of magnitude behind BTC. XMR has a few outside merchants too, but I still consider them all negligible.

2. $10 million market cap with a huge portion of that locked up in masternodes does not constitute significant "liquidity." Again it is negligible.

We'll see how this all plays out but everything important will happen in the future. Both of these coins are clearly nothing but toys/prototypes at the moment.

equipoise

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Monero (XMR) - secure, private, untraceable

Quote from: ?? on ??

...most people interested in Monero are not going to darkshit because its overpriced pumped flawed and dishonest coin.

True that. Adding "instamine" to the same sentence describes the darkcoin reality.

oblox

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 04:02:42 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 03:40:22 AM

Side note, I do love the name and agree it is one of the strongest names beyond Bitcoin.

Glad you agree the name is good, as most people attacking Monero's name turn out to be pure haters.

On a side node, I still dislike DRK and its approach has too many flaws.

Too many flaws? Since we are going off topic, come post them on the Darkcoin thread. Most likely they will be rebutled.

ha, not going to your echo-chamber buddy, been there done that, its you that is preaching darkshit on a monero thread, I already did my research, your uppity attitude because its being pumped by whales means nothing here, you have no power with someone truly enlightened about what fully-anonymous and fair launch means.

now back back to your thread and dont forget to make jokes about the instamine, do not mind everyone else watching that scam going on for months now.

Woah, you guys brought up flawed logic in here first (namely Artic). If you quit doing that, I wouldn't have to come in here correcting it. Apparently someone needs to take a chill pill... I understand though... most likely due to the fact you have watched your "investment" dwindle as the months have gone by. Oh and even if your privacy technology is superior cryptographically, Darkcoin's Darksend is mathematically secure from a statistical standpoint. At least with DRK you have outside merchants and liquidity... the same cannot be said about your "superior investment". Carry on with your few hundred dollar investment like you're some rockstar. lulz.

Glad you finally had the balls to show yourself, the answer is no, most people interested in Monero are not going to darkshit because its overpriced pumped flawed and dishonest coin. Good bye.

Naw, you brought it on yourself. Might have to stick around for awhile. ^_^

oblox

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 04:02:42 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 03:40:22 AM

Side note, I do love the name and agree it is one of the strongest names beyond Bitcoin.

Glad you agree the name is good, as most people attacking Monero's name turn out to be pure haters.

On a side node, I still dislike DRK and its approach has too many flaws.

Too many flaws? Since we are going off topic, come post them on the Darkcoin thread. Most likely they will be rebutled.

ha, not going to your echo-chamber buddy, been there done that, its you that is preaching darkshit on a monero thread, I already did my research, your uppity attitude because its being pumped by whales means nothing here, you have no power with someone truly enlightened about what fully-anonymous and fair launch means.

now back back to your thread and dont forget to make jokes about the instamine, do not mind everyone else watching that scam going on for months now.

Woah, you guys brought up flawed logic in here first (namely Artic). If you quit doing that, I wouldn't have to come in here correcting it. Apparently someone needs to take a chill pill... I understand though... most likely due to the fact you have watched your "investment" dwindle as the months have gone by. Oh and even if your privacy technology is superior cryptographically, Darkcoin's Darksend is mathematically secure from a statistical standpoint. At least with DRK you have outside merchants and liquidity... the same cannot be said about your "superior investment". Carry on with your few hundred dollar investment like you're some rockstar. lulz.

oblox

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 03:40:22 AM

Side note, I do love the name and agree it is one of the strongest names beyond Bitcoin.

Glad you agree the name is good, as most people attacking Monero's name turn out to be pure haters.

On a side node, I still dislike DRK and its approach has too many flaws.

Too many flaws? Since we are going off topic, come post them on the Darkcoin thread. Most likely they will be rebutled.

oblox

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Quote from: ArticMine on February 10, 2015, 01:07:27 AM

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 12:16:03 AM

...

Why are you comparing DRK to POS, the collateral for masternodes simply serves as a means of proof of service... there is no staking involved. DRK is and always will be, a POW coin.

I am comparing DRK to POS because the economic incentives of running a DRK masternode are essentially the same as staking a POS coin. This means both the security "cost of buying up enough DRK" to attack the privacy of the coin by controlling a large number percentage of the masternodes and the possible attack by "borrowing the DRK to set up malicious masternodes" are essentially identical to the economic incentives in a POS coin. The compensation is also the same since a portion of the mining rewards are diverted to the masternodes. This in effect makes DRK a hybrid POW/POS coin with transactions secured by POW and privacy by POS.

...again, good luck buying or borrowing enough DRK to even pull off this terribly unrealistic attack vector on privacy. Even if you owned HALF the masternode network, you still have probabilities far too low for any substantial analysis to be quantified. You would be far better off trying to rent hash to perform a 51% attack then you would trying to buy/borrow coins to deanonymize DS txes. It's a waste of resources. Now you're just getting silly.

As for your regulatory attack you keep adamantly bringing up... try to realize there are other countries outside the United States. While the US is a juggernaut, it wouldn't be a death blow if nodes were hosted elsewhere. Having said that, again, guidance as per FinCen, masternodes are not MSBs. There are far larger ramifications if they were, including Bitnodes and Monero's full nodes as well.

Side note, I do love the name and agree it is one of the strongest names beyond Bitcoin.

smooth

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Bitcoin was the best before Monero (in many aspects including the name).

Bitcoin was a great name because there was no original "Shitcoin" from which Bitcoin copied its name. Every coin that has ripped of some variation of "-coin" since then has been a copy cat joke in terms of branding, which is why you never see any of the big budget projects/ventures doing it (Ethereum, Ripple, Stellar, Bitshares, etc.)

Hueristic

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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

I guess I'm too subtle. Tongue

KEWL

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 12:16:03 AM

...

Why are you comparing DRK to POS, the collateral for masternodes simply serves as a means of proof of service... there is no staking involved. DRK is and always will be, a POW coin.

I am comparing DRK to POS because the economic incentives of running a DRK masternode are essentially the same as staking a POS coin. This means both the security "cost of buying up enough DRK" to attack the privacy of the coin by controlling a large number percentage of the masternodes and the possible attack by "borrowing the DRK to set up malicious masternodes" are essentially identical to the economic incentives in a POS coin. The compensation is also the same since a portion of the mining rewards are diverted to the masternodes. This in effect makes DRK a hybrid POW/POS coin with transactions secured by POW and privacy by POS.

Edit: The key difference with a POS coin is the minimum "stake" required to set up a masternode. This of course creates centralization and vulnerability to a possible regulatory attack.

Quote from: oblox on February 10, 2015, 12:19:18 AM

Quote from: hendra147 on February 09, 2015, 11:49:03 PM

is that good saving this coins for long period?

That's debatable given emissions. One look at the chart and you'll see an apparent decline in price trend. Having said that, I am a fan of the tail-end emission (I believe that is the direction voted on) when it gets there as ongoing inflation not only incentivizes further mining, but also makes it a viable currency (at least by modern economics standards).

The tail emission of XMR is capped at 1% not compounding placing the XMR inflation rate below the historical inflation rate of gold. The potential return in holding XMR at this point over a period of time will come from a significant uptake in its use over the emission rate and would most likely occur well ahead of XMR reaching tail emission. Seriously if XMR stays at these prices for the next seven years I doubt it will go anywhere.

oblox

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Quote from: hendra147 on February 09, 2015, 11:49:03 PM

is that good saving this coins for long period?

That's debatable given emissions. One look at the chart and you'll see an apparent decline in price trend. Having said that, I am a fan of the tail-end emission (I believe that is the direction voted on) when it gets there as ongoing inflation not only incentivizes further mining, but also makes it a viable currency (at least by modern economics standards).

oblox

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Quote from: ArticMine on February 09, 2015, 10:39:42 PM

Quote from: oblox on February 09, 2015, 10:12:01 PM

...

1. Here we go again...
2. Not that it is a problem now but I'd wager this will be forked in as the coin continues to push release (albeit, excessively)
3. lol, apparently you aren't familiar with probabilities. Good luck getting loaned that many coins to get a small chance of succeed. Further, with breaking the inputs up across multiple nodes through blinding would further prevent any meaningful analysis.

As for the coins tied in masternodes, it's digital currency... it can be split out to as many decimals as you want to provide liquidity. Quit thinking in fiat terms of whole coin this, whole dollar that.

1. The little point in debating this. Eventually someone will ask for a ruling from FINCen and resolve this.
2. We are in agreement here. DRK needs to hard fork just like XBT over this issue. All I can say is that the 1 MB blocksize limit in XBT, rather than privacy, is what drove me to XMR in the first place.
3. This is a classic POW vs POS argument. I happen to be strongly in the POW camp which is one of the reasons I support XMR. I also believe that borrowed stake is the Achilles Heel of POS. There are many who disagree with me on this and are in the POS camp. The trouble that DRK faces is that one has to believe in both POW and POS to support DRK. If one is a POW believer seeking privacy then XMR is for you. If one is a POS believer there are other pure POS alts that offer privacy.

Why are you comparing DRK to POS, the collateral for masternodes simply serves as a means of proof of service... there is no staking involved. DRK is and always will be, a POW coin.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: ArticMine on February 09, 2015, 11:51:20 PM

Quote from: hendra147 on February 09, 2015, 11:49:03 PM

is that good saving this coins for long period?

My take is that buy and hold is the best strategy with Monero. So yes. Of course we are talking of a very speculative purchase. It is very possible to see a significant drop in price. No guarantees.

I highly doubt there's any major XMR holder with a cost basis under .001
Nearly everyone should be in the red.

Looking at the charts, the price mainly just goes down with no way to short so you can't make much money daytrading. Liquidity isn't high enough to daytrade significantly either.

Holding makes sense. Either that or waiting a few years to start buying.

ArticMine

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Quote from: hendra147 on February 09, 2015, 11:49:03 PM

is that good saving this coins for long period?

My take is that buy and hold is the best strategy with Monero. So yes. Of course we are talking of a very speculative purchase. It is very possible to see a significant drop in price. No guarantees.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2068. (Read 3313076 times)