Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2064. (Read 3313076 times)

No, in real life applications (as opposed to casino gambling) it is very subjective, and the success of the method is exactly in the subjective evaluation of:

i) what can happen
ii) in what probability
iii) what is the financial outcome.

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Certainly is was possible, it even happened  

It is most probable that my stash of XMR is worth nothing in 5 years, but since it's possible for it to be 100, 1000 or 100,000 times more valuable than it is now, that makes it worthwhile.

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

Thanks Risto.  I though perhaps the process might be a little less subjective.

DRK is no real, ultimate competitor. The Monero Project has a certain future (there is enough demand and  Monero offers significant benefits for legal usage/users). Monero has a solid chance (best-case-scenario) to become one of the leading, widely-used and supported Crypto Currency, even if it won't become the leading trading-coin on the Dark Net.

Two things are important:
- don't concentrate all your posts, thoughts, involvement about becoming sick rich (with XMR), like Bitcoin Early Adopters (this creates bad atmosphere and work attitude)

- Monero is about building our new, own ecosystem and with all the related-services, 1.) the basic ones we need, to create a healthy, vivid coin, that has a real chance to survive organically and the 2.) the services & use-cases we like to have (and maybe miss elsewhere)

- i suggest establishing the idea: of turning around this disadvantage, of not being able to use the hole developed & estab. Bitcoin-Infrastructure & -software, into an potential/strength: we have the chance to build an Crypto Currency ecosystem from scratch, exact the way we want and need it, free from historic boundaries & rules, with the help and usage of todays: technology, knowledge and practical experience with other CCs

- we can and should learn from all the problems, questionable developments and judged with todays knowledge bad/not ideal design decision in Bitcoin and we should do it
- to have a coin and ecosystem that has a chance of long-term usage and success, for us self [increasing our satisfaction & added value by contributing to Monero] and for all the future users that we want and need, so the project and currency reaches usage numbers and the public status, it needs to: just stay alive, stay fair and economically wise to use (long term)
- so it can evolve and improve and hopefully be successful

- Another essential fact to note: we have to work and create a currency, community and ecosystem that is independent from Dark Web-usage, focussing on easy usage and handling for all users (not only standard end-users, also other E-Commerce relevant players: like merchants, power users with certain requirements, vendors, site owners, media, ...).
Once we have build this privacy-centric coin, we should inform the interested/relevant general public outside of the Crypto scene about Monero, to attract many "real-world users", to use Monero because of it's features and (unique) benefits.

- there is no value in: "faking" E-Commerce, when we as XMR community send around coins back and forth for stupid services & random gimmicks or [like other failed coins] thinking, some illegal online gambling sites with XMR will be enough to create an solid ecosystems

We need to work hard and persistent to create this first small real, legit XMR E-Commerce.
We need these non-tech/non-crypto people for feedback to improve XMR clients, apis, services and processes.
If we can get there and we have: real users, the software solutions (where people understand and are happy to use Mult-Sig-TXs e.g. for escrow), honestly earned trust from the media, tech community & co and we as community have shown we really help and support XMR professional early adopters,
THEN: Dark Web-adoption will come and if XMR really adds benefits for Dark Web-trading, it may become the dominant, leading privacy-coin (with the expected big growth in price)

I read alot of posts talking about "DRK vs XMR battle", "supposed advantages DRK has over XMR, so DRK will be the leading dark web coin and everyone supporting Monero is stupid", "Monero ain't interesting to hold/trade, there is no price development, no price pump I can participate ...." coming from generally bad (informed) posters, non technical alt-coin-community and or newbs, with newly regged accounts and childish behavior.
These people are wrong. The Monero project and community is way more & multifaceted and honestly intrinsic motivated. All the people in the XMR community I talked with, really believed in and lived after the principals and ideas Monero represents.
We don't have actors (like alot of other projects), just pseudo-participating a bit to get rich. People support Monero, because they really support the conception and ideas & values behind it, the innovative technology used, the open & democratic development process and the higher-than-average  friendly, intelligent, pleasant & pro-active community.

---> don't let these bullshit thoughts get into your brain and tell these posters they are wrong



That's all I had on my mind and wanted to say. Thank you.

Removed, too much personal info there.

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

That one is left to anyone. My method is just:

- select a timeframe
- think of what might happen
- group the "might happens" to actionable scenarios, typically 5 is a good number of scenarios even if the range of outcomes is very complex, just group them
- set the outcomes for the scenarios, guess the probabilities
- calculate the EV, and AEPR [(EV/PV)^(1/years)-1]

The Monero example is good because it shows that the EV does come at a cost:
- in 70% probability the outcome is zero = you lose all
- 5% is nearly zero
- 10% the purchasing power is kept
- 15% are the scenarios where you get 10x, 100x or 1000x return, which account for the bulk of the EV despite being rather improbable

So this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't. The EV is not all. A rational actor needs to think also what the utility of money is in the case he becomes a multimillionaire. On the other hand, excess profits can be easily cut by periodical selling if the positive scenarios start materializing. A good scheme for this is in my sig (SSS).

I can now say I'm with you on this one, I've waited a considerable ammount of time after the Monero release before start buying, I watched the entire thing from the suppose exploit to the mega-dumps that are lot less frequent now. I was hoping for something "better" to be released after some months but I don't think this will be happening now, the only competitor (DRK) only has a higher marketcap because they changed the emission curve to screw over new adopters and their technology is not good, its very weak from a technical view point. From what I could gather the cryptonote project is still mysterious but was in the making for several years, and the community fork lead by the Monero core team is really shining next to everything else.

Haha. My original comment was:"The element of timing is missing. All of these options may become true." Independently, I fixed a time of 2018-2019 in order for your probabilities to be reasonable.  Thus, it seems we are of the same mind.

Personally, I think that the most likely scenario is that XMR will definitely beat out DRK/DOGE/PPC within 5 years and become a TOP-5 cryptocurrency behind perhaps litecoin/ethereum/bitshares  with at least 3% of the overall 400 billion dollar crypto market cap, which would be $666.666/XMR, so I'm actually more optimistic than you. At that point, I become an Ultra-high net worth individual (if bitcoin hasn't already made me one) so we should definitely have a $100/XMR party.

I would really like to learn how to perform these EV assessments/calculations, can anyone point me to a good writeup on it?

Just keep buying.

especially in this world filled with people on uppers. (he says as he sips his morning coffee)

The waiting is the hardest part.

Seriously guys, flipping burgers is an option if 5 years is too much for a 50,000% EV 

Patience is a virtue.

This is good work.

EDIT: Just noticed that this is for 5 years.

I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.

By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.

Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:

In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.

Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.

Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto:

1) $4000 billion 5%

2) $400 billion 15%

3) $40 billion 25%

4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit.

5) $400 million. 25%

This is a very rough but useful classification.



Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say:

1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1%

2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4%

3) 1% of the market (alive) 10%

4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR

5) 0% of the market (dead) 70%



Now just go and do the numbers
...
I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.

By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.

Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:

In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.

Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.

Enjoyed yours BTC EV analysis thread, do you have something similar for XMR?

I think the Ethereum team is working on a crypto-to-crypto decentralized exchange called EtherEx
http://www.etherex.org/

The idea is to use trustless smart contracts to do exchanges rather than have any counterparties. The contract executes the trade.
The only issue is that XMR is not a bitcoin clone so it may not be supported as soon as LTC/DOGE/etc. are supported.

p2p monero exchange

does anybody have some good understanding of the best technique how to accomplish this?
obligatory question - can it be implemented with monero?
of course. perhaps not anytime soon but i believe there are already projects for bitcoin that could be easily extended.
any idea about scaling and the number of transactions that have to occur if you are using technique where you bootstrap the exchange in several transactions?

i agree that using poloniex is for now more than enough though.