[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2063.

pinky

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Quote from: rpietila on February 23, 2015, 08:50:30 AM

In June-2014, the value of new emission (daily emission * daily price) was $1.8 million. In January-2015, it was $0.18 million. The 90% reduction in emission in dollar terms means that the rising buying interest will directly affect the price because the emission cannot absorb it.

The highest day of emission, 2014-06-21, produced more coins by USD value than the entire February-2015 so far has done.

Chart is in USD per day.

Great chart.

Pretty much we are at the rock bottom. If anybody is thinking about owning XMR now is the best time considering multiple factors and R:R ratio.
Soon there will be 1 year anniversary and XMR is still not dead, you can't say this for majority of other coins which had much greater publicity and yet failed miserably.

rpietila

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In June-2014, the value of new emission (daily emission * daily price) was $1.8 million. In January-2015, it was $0.18 million. The 90% reduction in emission in dollar terms means that the rising buying interest will directly affect the price because the emission cannot absorb it.

The highest day of emission, 2014-06-21, produced more coins by USD value than the entire February-2015 so far has done.

Chart is in USD per day.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

The value of 1 XMR has come down about 90% from what was the average last summer. Meanwhile, the development is still going on with a battle-hardened team while scamcoin devs have abandoned their coins.

Chart is in USD/XMR.

It is mathematically an optimal time to invest now, because the total failure scenario is less likely than before, and the odds for a positive price development in the short-medium term are better than before.

The long term is probably about the same, but comes at 10% the cost.

jehst

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Activity: 798

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: rpietila on February 23, 2015, 08:07:29 AM

Quote from: jehst on February 23, 2015, 07:52:26 AM

Quote from: Wexlike on February 23, 2015, 07:35:43 AM

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

Here the intentions are opened up a bit more in detail.

It is unlikely that new investors are yet buying, they typically come later. My aim is to get the ones who already know, on board NOW before my big clients raise the price. This will be much better for the community. Otherwise we just have a lot of bitter ex-owners of XMR looking at their empty wallets wondering what hit them.

Well, I think it's likely that Ripple's core supporters did something similar a few months ago. And it worked quite well.

rpietila

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Quote from: jehst on February 23, 2015, 07:52:26 AM

Quote from: Wexlike on February 23, 2015, 07:35:43 AM

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

Here the intentions are opened up a bit more in detail.

It is unlikely that new investors are yet buying, they typically come later. My aim is to get the ones who already know, on board NOW before my big clients raise the price. This will be much better for the community. Otherwise we just have a lot of bitter ex-owners of XMR looking at their empty wallets wondering what hit them.

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: Wexlike on February 23, 2015, 07:35:43 AM

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

Wexlike

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New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

dnaleor

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Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: rpietila on February 21, 2015, 04:24:42 PM

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

I always like your disclaimers Wink

jehst

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Activity: 798

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 06:22:37 AM

Quote from: jehst on February 22, 2015, 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: smooth on February 22, 2015, 02:06:04 AM

Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 01:59:34 AM

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

For sure, but, of course, we have to arrive at that point in the future *before* someone decides to attack us.

Developing XMR-ASICs is not worth it, but yes. If attackers did develop XMR-ASICs and then mine at a huge loss competing against botnets, then they could attack the system.

mmortal03

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Quote from: jehst on February 22, 2015, 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: smooth on February 22, 2015, 02:06:04 AM

Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 01:59:34 AM

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

For sure, but, of course, we have to arrive at that point in the future *before* someone decides to attack us.

jehst

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Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: smooth on February 22, 2015, 02:06:04 AM

Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 01:59:34 AM

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

smooth

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Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 01:59:34 AM

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

mmortal03

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Quote from: smooth on February 22, 2015, 12:49:45 AM

Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 12:43:34 AM

Quote from: Bassica on February 21, 2015, 01:58:45 PM

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

Fact is most of the active cryptocurrency projects have abandoned proof-of-work. Ethereum is an exception, which isn't on the list because it hasn't launched, but reasonably is <#7. They haven't quite abandoned it yet, but they're talking about it. Every other coin above us except DRK and DOGE is a first-wave altcoin.

One can speculate about various reasons for that, including that PoW is no good and that scammers don't like PoW because they can't control supply, and others, but one way or another we're an outlier here.

For sure. PoW is a huge plus when discussing Monero with more knowledgeable individuals. One remaining knock against it that I'll get, however, is the theory that if any other PoW coin ever starts to legitimately compete with Bitcoin, that resources will be diverted to attack it (51% attack), essentially arguing that only one blockchain, Bitcoin's, will ever survive in the long term, as it is the longest, and has, by far, the most computing resources behind it. However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero? Would they still be incentivized to do it indirectly, though, by spending *new* money *just* devoted to killing/forking Monero and protecting Bitcoin supremacy? Is there some other scenario where it might play out this way?

smooth

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Quote from: mmortal03 on February 22, 2015, 12:43:34 AM

Quote from: Bassica on February 21, 2015, 01:58:45 PM

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

Fact is most of the active cryptocurrency projects have abandoned proof-of-work. Ethereum is an exception, which isn't on the list because it hasn't launched, but reasonably is <#7. They haven't quite abandoned it yet, but they're talking about it. Every other coin above us except DRK and DOGE is a first-wave altcoin.

One can speculate about various reasons for that, including that PoW is no good and that scammers don't like PoW because they can't control supply, and others, but one way or another we're an outlier here.

mmortal03

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Quote from: Bassica on February 21, 2015, 01:58:45 PM

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

GingerAle

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Quote from: smooth on February 22, 2015, 12:12:30 AM

Let's get back on topic

I speculate Monero is going to Alpha Centauri. The moon is for myopic terrestrial gravity well types.

But seriously. The markets these days. thanks xmr.to

smooth

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Let's get back on topic

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: aalborg on February 21, 2015, 10:33:28 PM

If you are sincere, then I am happy to say that I know for sure that you are clueless.

Teach him and he will be quiet. If you can't teach him, then you yourself be quiet.

aalborg

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Quote from: rpietila on February 21, 2015, 04:24:42 PM

Quote from: wpalczynski on February 21, 2015, 04:07:49 PM

Thanks Risto. I though perhaps the process might be a little less subjective.

No, in real life applications (as opposed to casino gambling) it is very subjective, and the success of the method is exactly in the subjective evaluation of:

i) what can happen
ii) in what probability
iii) what is the financial outcome.

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Certainly is was possible, it even happened Cheesy

It is most probable that my stash of XMR is worth nothing in 5 years, but since it's possible for it to be 100, 1000 or 100,000 times more valuable than it is now, that makes it worthwhile.

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

You apparently hit bitcoin at the right time. That is one stroke of luck. I know your background, given you got coverage in some Finnish magazines after buying a rundown mansion and claiming. not demonstrating, that you had made X amount. I recall as well that you told a journalist something about the imminent collapse of world currencies.

You are on here with this crap, trying to speak like a stock market/bankng/financial expert.

You're none of them, your biography is documented in public.

I can speculate on why you make these absurd posts, but you have cottoned on to the fact that the crypto-world is largely dominated by people with below average incomes and very little knowledge of what drives markets, and are quite possibly likely to be impressed when you use market language.

Personally, I think there is scam behind you, but I have no proof, so it is just my own speculation, and not to be considered by others as evidence..

If you are sincere, then I am happy to say that I know for sure that you are clueless.

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: rpietila on February 21, 2015, 01:42:59 PM

... this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't.

A 15% chance of getting rich would appeal to many. The issue, as you've already identified, is that they don't think the chance is 15%.

Quote

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Other people are also doing a rough EV calculation in their brains, but according to their subjective evaluations, a 400 billion dollar cryptocurrency market cap within 5 years isn't possible at all.
0% chance.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2063. (Read 3313076 times)