Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
Not seen that in 2014. More of the opposite.Bitcoinland is only 6 years old, and the current period of not reaching new heights cannot be even called "unprecedented", because we've already had a longer one. The statistical models such as the exponential trendline start to lose their value when their R^2 is not any more the largest of the models in existence.This may happen during 2015, let's see.
What do you think of sgbett's $560k thread (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/prediction-next-spike-560000-14-oops-months-from-now-2017-update-800330) ? What would happen to XMRBTC in such a scenario?
If XMR on its own accord does not do anything out of the ordinary I would expect a spike to over 0.01 XBT and possibly even as high as 0.10 XBT under such a scenario, just based on the performance of other alt-coins is past. Here are some examples: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime, http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/nmc/btc/btc-e/alltime. That would place XMR/USD in the 5600 to 56000 range.
If there are significant improvements in XMR then it could be higher.
Agree and when Bitcoin reaches $560k, in that scenario I would expect a spike in CZC (CzechCrownCoin) to 0.0015090 XBT and possibly even as high as 0.015090 XBT under such a scenario, just based on the performance of other alt-coins in the past. Because past performance is a reliable indicator of future returns. That would place CZC/USD in the 845 to 8450 range.
If we look at some charts http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/xpy/btc/cryptsy/alltime
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/aur/btc/cryptsy/alltime we can see these pair of shitcoins will at least rise to their former ATH for a combined USD denominated market cap exceeding that of Oracle corp.
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On a serious note it's a ballsy prediction (1,513,413% to 15,135,035% increase), I think even risto only predicted a 1000x fiat-denominated rise in Monero, although coincidentally that was when Monero was trading at just over double it's current rate - equally the total supply of XMR was just under half todays rate (and USD/BTC was just over double what it is now) so taken the market into account that would be a way higher today, whereas the scale of your prediction assumes that for every $10 put into monero today you will see anywhere from $150k to $1.5MM returned. And the top holder of XMR as outlined https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-rpietila-monero-economics-thread-702140 would earn some quite nice pocket change, (anywhere from $1.6billion to $16billion)- not a bad return for allocating some spare funds on poloniex into a command line bytecoin-fork and holding for another 12 months. It almost seems too good to pass up on, I suppose that's the same logic some theists (in the form of pascals wager) gamblers, or other notable investors have taken:
He must have enough money that it does not matter, he does not want to assume any risk whatsoever.
The risk of not holding monero is infinitely bigger than that of holding it.
With not holding, you can lose a sum equal to 1000x your net worth.
With holding, you can maximum lose the amount invested.
It is quite an enlightening and humbling experience to go back and read some of the earlier speculation/technical analyis in the flurry of Monero threads posted some months ago, around the time-frame of that quote
The following is only speculation about the price, and not intended to affect the trading decisions. Often trading decisions need to take into account volume, tax and other considerations.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)
As for whales making fun of you because of the cost averaging amount, I very much doubt it, what is far more likely however is that you become a whale. Many whales got started with small amounts and not just in crypto-currency. 
