It is quite an enlightening and humbling experience to go back and read some of the earlier speculation/technical analyis in the flurry of Monero threads posted some months ago, around the time-frame of that quote
The following is only speculation about the price, and not intended to affect the trading decisions. Often trading decisions need to take into account volume, tax and other considerations.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
It seems to have gone somewhere between Negative and Slightly Negative, perhaps at about the point where I had expected it to be "better" with 88% probability and "worse" with 12% probability. So yes, worse than the median scenario, that is for sure. For all of crypto, 2014 was definitely a worse than median, whereas 2013 was better than median.
I recently had a similar exercise with the % cumulative probability that Monero is "dead" by a certain day. In 25% probability it was dead in 3 months (this was done in early Dec afair), in 50% probability it was dead in 18 months, and 75% was not reached at all, in other words, I estimated that it would continue to have at least approximately the current valuation perpetually.
Now, I still don't understand what you are trying to prove. With scenario analysis you only lose big if you do not take into account something that could happen, but it does happen.
- If you say Monero goes to zero in 1-5% probability in 30 days, and it does, it has been up to you to place your bets so that you stay +EV at all times (note: expected value (EV) has a very long variance time in converging to its mean, some may never hit big despite staying in +EV whole their life).
- If you say it has absolutely no chance ever to go to zero, and it does, and you lose money, you are a fool and deserve the ridicule of even of the forum trolls.
). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)
As for whales making fun of you because of the cost averaging amount, I very much doubt it, what is far more likely however is that you become a whale. Many whales got started with small amounts and not just in crypto-currency. 
