Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2081. (Read 3313076 times)
If bitcoin's price goes down to, say, 100 and XMR goes down to .001 and the emission is around 17000 to 18000 per day, that's $1700 to $1800 to buy every coin mined. A .001 floor becomes pretty trivial to maintain.
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The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.
Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
You mean it works kinds like fiat?
Most trade of those things are in fiat, especially USD.
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The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.
Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
You mean it works kinds like fiat?
real usage and not just speculation:
hacked wallets -> anonymous cryptocurrencies
we need p2p exchange markets with enough volume to enable such transactions.
hacked wallets -> anonymous cryptocurrencies
we need p2p exchange markets with enough volume to enable such transactions.
...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.
Agree, another way is that they could opt to use the viewkey so the transaction is visible. In the same way as the current dev donation adress. If I am wrong about this, please correct me.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
It isn't really clear that Dell, Overstock, etc. have done anything good for BTC. Yes there are some headlines and a tiny amount of transactions, but ultimately does any of that really matter?
I believe it does as even if the price goes down because of it...there is more awareness of bitcoin.
There is transactional demand for moving funds long distances in short amounts of time with low fees.
That has not changed and companies like Western Union will be gone in a few years from now if they do not incorporate bitcoin into their business model some how some way.
My thinking is that Dell and Overstock are just so tiny compared to the overall economy, which makes it not really transactional as much as Dell and Overstock wanting to grab a little piece of early adopters' wealth. Yes you have to start somewhere but really its like 0.01%. You can't just walk around and spend bitcoin wherever you go, most online doesn't take it.
Every little bit helps maybe, but I'm not sure this idea of a small number of high profile merchants is really worth a lot.
Western Union-type services seem like a more significant opportunity to me than nameplate retail. I don't know what that really looks like though, in terms of adoption vs. disruption.
On the whole investor vs. entrepreneur debate I guess I'm leaning toward the investor side these days. The entrepreneur's time will come, but I'm not sure it will come soon.
From your previous postings, I think we're in agreement that 99%+ of XMR use will be for speculative purposes. Bitcoin has non-speculative use, but even there, almost no merchants hold their bitcoin for any extended period of time. Many never even see the bitcoin. The non-speculative use is a joke. Non-speculative use of XMR will mainly serve as a marketing tool. In my mind, the development of a coin is theoretically characterized by three phases:
Overwhelmingly Speculative Phase -> Store Of Value Phase -> Store of Value + Dressings Phase
In other words, commerce, remittances, etc. are not even their own phase. They remain ancillary, even at the very end.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
It isn't really clear that Dell, Overstock, etc. have done anything good for BTC. Yes there are some headlines and a tiny amount of transactions, but ultimately does any of that really matter?
I believe it does as even if the price goes down because of it...there is more awareness of bitcoin.
There is transactional demand for moving funds long distances in short amounts of time with low fees.
That has not changed and companies like Western Union will be gone in a few years from now if they do not incorporate bitcoin into their business model some how some way.
My thinking is that Dell and Overstock are just so tiny compared to the overall economy, which makes it not really transactional as much as Dell and Overstock wanting to grab a little piece of early adopters' wealth.
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It's not the direct/immediate economic input that matters; it's the signaling. I don't know how many business leaders and HNW people you talk to from the mainstream economy, but the "legitimization" of Bitcoin provided by these high-profile merchant-acceptance announcements is material. It directly leads to people with money taking investment positions in the currency itself (among other things).
On the whole investor vs. entrepreneur debate I guess I'm leaning toward the investor side these days. The entrepreneur's time will come, but I'm not sure it will come soon.
Agreed (and I say this as a startup founder). A big part of the current gloomy sentiment is due to entrepreneurs' expectations getting wayyy ahead of reality. This isn't Facebook. It's not going to be a ballistic exponential curve ending in >1B users in 5 years. I'd guess crypto becoming mainstream (and/or high market-cap) is going to take ~20years, with long drawn out flat periods, punctuated by some short hyper-growth every now and then. At least in the early half of the process, which we're in, and which is bootstrapped by the investors, eventually leading to fertile ground for the entrepreneurs.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
It isn't really clear that Dell, Overstock, etc. have done anything good for BTC. Yes there are some headlines and a tiny amount of transactions, but ultimately does any of that really matter?
I believe it does as even if the price goes down because of it...there is more awareness of bitcoin.
There is transactional demand for moving funds long distances in short amounts of time with low fees.
That has not changed and companies like Western Union will be gone in a few years from now if they do not incorporate bitcoin into their business model some how some way.
My thinking is that Dell and Overstock are just so tiny compared to the overall economy, which makes it not really transactional as much as Dell and Overstock wanting to grab a little piece of early adopters' wealth. Yes you have to start somewhere but really its like 0.01%. You can't just walk around and spend bitcoin wherever you go, most online doesn't take it.
Every little bit helps maybe, but I'm not sure this idea of a small number of high profile merchants is really worth a lot.
Western Union-type services seem like a more significant opportunity to me than nameplate retail. I don't know what that really looks like though, in terms of adoption vs. disruption.
On the whole investor vs. entrepreneur debate I guess I'm leaning toward the investor side these days. The entrepreneur's time will come, but I'm not sure it will come soon.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
It isn't really clear that Dell, Overstock, etc. have done anything good for BTC. Yes there are some headlines and a tiny amount of transactions, but ultimately does any of that really matter?
I believe it does as even if the price goes down because of it...there is more awareness of bitcoin.
There is transactional demand for moving funds long distances in short amounts of time with low fees.
That has not changed and companies like Western Union will be gone in a few years from now if they do not incorporate bitcoin into their business model some how some way.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
It isn't really clear that Dell, Overstock, etc. have done anything good for BTC. Yes there are some headlines and a tiny amount of transactions, but ultimately does any of that really matter?
...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.
Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.
For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.
...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.
...
I recently had a similar exercise with the % cumulative probability that Monero is "dead" by a certain day. In 25% probability it was dead in 3 months (this was done in early Dec afair), in 50% probability it was dead in 18 months, and 75% was not reached at all, in other words, I estimated that it would continue to have at least approximately the current valuation perpetually.
Now, I still don't understand what you are trying to prove. With scenario analysis you only lose big if you do not take into account something that could happen, but it does happen.
When it comes to passive investing, this kind of analysis is beneficial.
However, if Monero will die or live depends on the community if we decide to let it live or die.
Tech problems are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Financial problems (finding merchants, creating economy etc) are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Your project Crypto Kingdom is something that has benefitted the community. I would encourage all those who are able to perform such projects, to perform them.
Not to focus much on probabilities of loosing (which has also its place in prudent way of investing).
Economically also the more coins are stored in cold storages "for ever", the more there is scarcity. If there is demand, the scarcity drives the price to extreme highs.
In case of bitcoin, roughly 99,5 % of the coins are deep frozen, this can be seen in exchanges: The marketcap is 4 billion usd and the daily trading volume is "only" around 20 million usd.
The only way Monero can achieve success is to have people willing to buy and store 99,5 of the emission. The rest is for using it "in real life". Services makes a coin a bit more attractive than a coin that do not pay anything what so ever, and the hoarding gives the high marketcap for the coin.
IMO, Monero has basically 2 alternatives:
1) It will have parties that are willing to sink money and hoard the coin and therefore give for Her high marketcap and value. Estimated pricing in this scenario > 1 btc
2) Monero will not have people hoarding the most coins and it will eventually get dumped and the estimated pricing in this case is ~ 0.00 BTC.
For me it is hard to see a scenario that is somewhere between. I am not saying it doesn't exist but for me it is hard to see. The between-scenario perhaps is based on thought of Monero getting some share of world trade being a niche coin.
I have following questions:
What are the issues that makes Monero not to be # 1 Crypto? How can we solve those issues?
Bitcoin is not that good. IMO opinion the only advantage bitcoin has is a community consisting even billionaires/millionaires who are able to hold coins - and they do not even care the price of bitcoin since they have so awfully lot of money from other sources.
High marketcap also means people do not need to sell many Moneros for satisfying their basic needs and therefore it will suck the dumping pressure.
My 0.02 XMR.
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.
...
I recently had a similar exercise with the % cumulative probability that Monero is "dead" by a certain day. In 25% probability it was dead in 3 months (this was done in early Dec afair), in 50% probability it was dead in 18 months, and 75% was not reached at all, in other words, I estimated that it would continue to have at least approximately the current valuation perpetually.
Now, I still don't understand what you are trying to prove. With scenario analysis you only lose big if you do not take into account something that could happen, but it does happen.
When it comes to passive investing, this kind of analysis is beneficial.
However, if Monero will die or live depends on the community if we decide to let it live or die.
Tech problems are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Financial problems (finding merchants, creating economy etc) are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Your project Crypto Kingdom is something that has benefitted the community. I would encourage all those who are able to perform such projects, to perform them.
Not to focus much on probabilities of loosing (which has also its place in prudent way of investing).
Economically also the more coins are stored in cold storages "for ever", the more there is scarcity. If there is demand, the scarcity drives the price to extreme highs.
In case of bitcoin, roughly 99,5 % of the coins are deep frozen, this can be seen in exchanges: The marketcap is 4 billion usd and the daily trading volume is "only" around 20 million usd.
The only way Monero can achieve success is to have people willing to buy and store 99,5 of the emission. The rest is for using it "in real life". Services makes a coin a bit more attractive than a coin that do not pay anything what so ever, and the hoarding gives the high marketcap for the coin.
IMO, Monero has basically 2 alternatives:
1) It will have parties that are willing to sink money and hoard the coin and therefore give for Her high marketcap and value. Estimated pricing in this scenario > 1 btc
2) Monero will not have people hoarding the most coins and it will eventually get dumped and the estimated pricing in this case is ~ 0.00 BTC.
For me it is hard to see a scenario that is somewhere between. I am not saying it doesn't exist but for me it is hard to see. The between-scenario perhaps is based on thought of Monero getting some share of world trade being a niche coin.
I have following questions:
What are the issues that makes Monero not to be # 1 Crypto? How can we solve those issues?
Bitcoin is not that good. IMO opinion the only advantage bitcoin has is a community consisting even billionaires/millionaires who are able to hold coins - and they do not even care the price of bitcoin since they have so awfully lot of money from other sources.
High marketcap also means people do not need to sell many Moneros for satisfying their basic needs and therefore it will suck the dumping pressure.
My 0.02 XMR.
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
^^This
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
Not seen that in 2014. More of the opposite.IMHO 2014 can be directly laid at Willy and Doge's feet.
Willie, Doge, and China
DOH! how did I forget China!
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
Not seen that in 2014. More of the opposite.Bitcoinland is only 6 years old, and the current period of not reaching new heights cannot be even called "unprecedented", because we've already had a longer one. The statistical models such as the exponential trendline start to lose their value when their R^2 is not any more the largest of the models in existence.This may happen during 2015, let's see.
What do you think of sgbett's $560k thread (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/prediction-next-spike-560000-14-oops-months-from-now-2017-update-800330) ? What would happen to XMRBTC in such a scenario?
If XMR on its own accord does not do anything out of the ordinary I would expect a spike to over 0.01 XBT and possibly even as high as 0.10 XBT under such a scenario, just based on the performance of other alt-coins is past. Here are some examples: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime, http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/nmc/btc/btc-e/alltime. That would place XMR/USD in the 5600 to 56000 range.
If there are significant improvements in XMR then it could be higher.
The XMR/BTC appreciation would be because of BTC profit-takers seeking to diversify? Was that evident in past BTC spikes? I've never paid attention to alts before XMR.
It is more like when the bulls are in a buying frenzy they will buy anything. The alt-coin become a "more affordable" version of Bitcoin. This phenomenon is best seen with alt-coins that have already being through more than one XBT/USD boom and you need an alt-coin that has some merit. In effect the alt-coin behaves as a leveraged play on Bitcoin. This phenomenon is not unique to crypto-currency. It also happens with gold stocks where the juniors appreciate in value with respect to the seniors in a gold boom. I have also seen it in real estate markets.
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
^^This
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
Not seen that in 2014. More of the opposite.IMHO 2014 can be directly laid at Willy and Doge's feet.
Willie, Doge, and China
It is quite an enlightening and humbling experience to go back and read some of the earlier speculation/technical analyis in the flurry of Monero threads posted some months ago, around the time-frame of that quote
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
This is indeed what happened (though not the part about BTC up). We can't really say that 5-10% was inaccurate. Only a prediction of 0% would be inaccurate.
It is quite an enlightening and humbling experience to go back and read some of the earlier speculation/technical analyis in the flurry of Monero threads posted some months ago, around the time-frame of that quote
The following is only speculation about the price, and not intended to affect the trading decisions. Often trading decisions need to take into account volume, tax and other considerations.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
Scenarios:
Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%
Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.
Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%
Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.
Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.
It seems to have gone somewhere between Negative and Slightly Negative, perhaps at about the point where I had expected it to be "better" with 88% probability and "worse" with 12% probability. So yes, worse than the median scenario, that is for sure. For all of crypto, 2014 was definitely a worse than median, whereas 2013 was better than median.
I recently had a similar exercise with the % cumulative probability that Monero is "dead" by a certain day. In 25% probability it was dead in 3 months (this was done in early Dec afair), in 50% probability it was dead in 18 months, and 75% was not reached at all, in other words, I estimated that it would continue to have at least approximately the current valuation perpetually.
Now, I still don't understand what you are trying to prove. With scenario analysis you only lose big if you do not take into account something that could happen, but it does happen.
- If you say Monero goes to zero in 1-5% probability in 30 days, and it does, it has been up to you to place your bets so that you stay +EV at all times (note: expected value (EV) has a very long variance time in converging to its mean, some may never hit big despite staying in +EV whole their life).
- If you say it has absolutely no chance ever to go to zero, and it does, and you lose money, you are a fool and deserve the ridicule of even of the forum trolls.
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
^^This
Everything is fine. A prolonged lull after a big price increase in Bitcoin land is very normal. Completely expecting enthusiasm for Altcoins to dim for a while but there is no better solution for low prices than low prices. At some point, demand will pick up again, in Bitcoin land and Altcoins.
Not seen that in 2014. More of the opposite.IMHO 2014 can be directly laid at Willy and Doge's feet.
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