[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2127.

nakaone

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 06:30:34 PM

Quote from: nakaone on November 07, 2014, 06:27:54 PM

monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

But tell me, if Monero ever goes to mainstream, what will be the difference: Monero is not a premined but still like 80-90 % mined vs. Monero being 80-90 % mined due to premine?
Who wants to buy a coin that is almost mined? Even bitcoin has problems to find new buyers and therefore the price is declining month after month.

you don't buy a coin - you exchange one currency against another

look the assumption regarding bitcoin as well as hopefully monero in the future is that these currencies fill a niche - so you are basically not exchanging for future appreciation but for the function it fills at that current point of time.

binaryFate

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 06:20:39 PM

Monero is currently more or less premine coin.

How can you say that when the price today is about a 1/3rd of the average most people bought into?
Accuse it of postmine or future mine, or whatever terms sounds like antagonist to premine, you would be more correct.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: nakaone on November 07, 2014, 06:27:54 PM

monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

But tell me, if Monero ever goes to mainstream, what will be the difference: Monero is not a premined but still like 80-90 % mined vs. Monero being 80-90 % mined due to premine?
Who wants to buy a coin that is almost mined? Even bitcoin has problems to find new buyers and therefore the price is declining month after month.

nakaone

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monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: nakaone on November 07, 2014, 06:20:21 PM

Quote from: binaryFate on November 07, 2014, 04:32:50 PM

After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.

Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.

I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.

I completely agree.

regarding cutting emission - you guys realize that the failure of declining prices is not done by the emission but by the probably to high expectations of the buyers at certain points of time in the past. we simply did wrong in pricing monero properly.

if we cut now - how do we know that we cut properly?

I am probably one of the least evangelizing persons of free markets in this forum - but here please let the market do the price finding, not some greedy investors who try to correct their personal failures

You mean, Monero goes to 0?

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: binaryFate on November 07, 2014, 06:14:41 PM

There is no compromise. (I'm a man of no-fight usually, I'd like to go with you, but that doesn't work here).
Either you touch the code of the emission, or you don't. There is no in-between.

I would return the short term argument "Monero's life is threaten, we must survive short term, that is more important than long term considerations", as follows:
If you have been on the cryptos scene for a while, you know the premine accusation is a death sentence (on the "serious" alt scene at least). Short term, our only target to expand the community is the existing crypto currencies community, alienate them and we're dead, immediately.

EDIT: Not talking about the tail emission here. As smooth clarified recently, that part was always left open and talking about it, or changing it, wouldn't be a breach of anything.

Monero is currently more or less premine coin.

nakaone

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Quote from: binaryFate on November 07, 2014, 04:32:50 PM

After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.

Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.

I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.

I completely agree.

regarding cutting emission - you guys realize that the failure of declining prices is not done by the emission but by the probably to high expectations of the buyers at certain points of time in the past. we simply did wrong in pricing monero properly.

if we cut now - how do we know that we cut properly?

I am probably one of the least evangelizing persons of free markets in this forum - but here please let the market do the price finding, not some greedy investors who try to correct their personal failures

rpietila

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The reality is very simple and it has nothing to do with the current price:

Premined coins will be ignored.

BCN hit the market being 82% mined. Nobody took it seriously. It was forked. XMR was born.

The shitty market condition and developing of this new tech take 2 years. XMR hits the market, 70% mined. Many will feel pity for it to be a nice coin, but will nevertheless fork it since it has no chance to fly with such a huge unfair premine. Total loss for holders.

If we want that anyone takes XMR seriously, and regards it as a fair coin after 2 years, we cut the emission now. Otherwise we risk a fork to a coin with a fairer emission.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: binaryFate on November 07, 2014, 05:49:45 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:46:16 PM

[...]
The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
[...]

Sadly I don't know if it will, but I'm absolutely convinced Monero can do so.

Sounds a bit of an old tune, but it's true: all we need to expand way beyond the existing community is a sound DB+GUI implementation.
Then full steam marketing, but it will be a pleasure to do if Monero is technically the best anon candidate. Pleasure because made out of passion, not "just" greed of investor.
There is a huge coordinated crackdown currently on bitcoin black markets. I know from primary sources the first thing investigators do when they knock at the door, is to look for the bitcoin wallet. They can very easily build a partial but significant map of bitcoin activity around black markets, constantly expanding it with the activity of people under investigation.
Since apparently there is a need, or a demand, for such markets, people will seek for better solutions. Soon. In the current state of affairs really, I have no doubt getting enough users to absorb emission will be peanuts at current and rencent prices, once we have a software that works pretty much out of the box.

Nobody is interested in a coin or in general any investment which is in bear market because bear market makes the owner poorer. The purpose of investing is to increase your purchasing power.
I am not interested in any investment that makes me poorer. Temporarily I understand that there is fluctuation but since June heighs the fluctuation has been mainly bearish (lower highs - despite for some time Risto was able to keep also higher lows but even higher lows are not taking place).

I am interested in knowing to whom you sell Monero when it is declining.

binaryFate

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There is no compromise. (I'm a man of no-fight usually, I'd like to go with you, but that doesn't work here).
Either you touch the code of the emission, or you don't. There is no in-between.

I would return the short term argument "Monero's life is threaten, we must survive short term, that is more important than long term considerations", as follows:
If you have been on the cryptos scene for a while, you know the premine accusation is a death sentence (on the "serious" alt scene at least). Short term, our only target to expand the community is the existing crypto currencies community, alienate them and we're dead, immediately.

EDIT: Not talking about the tail emission here. As smooth clarified recently, that part was always left open and talking about it, or changing it, wouldn't be a breach of anything.

BanditryAndLoot

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What about a compromise?

We have 4,494,000 coins now

We have total coins being 18446000

We have 80% coins after 4 years being 14,757,000

We have already mined 4,494,000 coins in about half a year

So for the next 3.5 years, rather than deal with a continuously decreasing block reward, we acknowledge that there will be 10,263,000 more coins made...

so we switch to an immediate flat rate block reward for the next 3.5 years, where it is scheduled to return to a decreasing emission.

So we have 3.5 years left, so 1278 days, so 1839600 blocks until that day about.

So we take the 10,263,000 that is supposed to be made over the next 3.5 years anyways, and instead make it a flat rate of 5.5789 XMR/block.

In 3.5 years, we return to regularly scheduled programming.

Does this sound like a compromise?

binaryFate

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Quote from: smooth on November 06, 2014, 10:16:06 PM

Quote

It's a balance, and why the hell nobody seem to consider pushing the other side rather than pulling the emission one?

I ask though. If you say "it is a balance," then why do you dismiss the emission side of the balance and suggest that the only solution here is on the development side? Perhaps the best solution to this balance is both an adjustment to the emissions and pushing forward on development and adoption? That is a real question since I'm personally undecided on the matter.

I don't really dismiss it, sorry if I give that extreme impression, my tone is only that of someone trying to advocate passionately his opinion.

I don't consider optimal at all to tweak the emission side of the equation because of the tremendous consequences, that I don't see on the other side. Like a death sentence VS a bumpy road to an unknown future. I take the bumpy road.

binaryFate

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:46:16 PM

[...]
The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
[...]

Sadly I don't know if it will, but I'm absolutely convinced Monero can do so.

Sounds a bit of an old tune, but it's true: all we need to expand way beyond the existing community is a sound DB+GUI implementation.
Then full steam marketing, but it will be a pleasure to do if Monero is technically the best anon candidate. Pleasure because made out of passion, not "just" greed of investor.
There is a huge coordinated crackdown currently on bitcoin black markets. I know from primary sources the first thing investigators do when they knock at the door, is to look for the bitcoin wallet. They can very easily build a partial but significant map of bitcoin activity around black markets, constantly expanding it with the activity of people under investigation.
Since apparently there is a need, or a demand, for such markets, people will seek for better solutions. Soon. In the current state of affairs really, I have no doubt getting enough users to absorb emission will be peanuts at current and rencent prices, once we have a software that works pretty much out of the box.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2014, 05:16:59 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 05:11:00 PM

Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2014, 05:01:26 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:49:21 PM

However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined.

You keep repeating this as if it were something new, but it is not. The same wording about a minimum subsidy was there all along. Here is an archived copy of the page from June for verification. There is one archived from May that I'm quite certain would say the same thing but it seems to be corrupted.

http://web.archive.org/web/20140625104827/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

This didn't answear the question of why now mine more coins than necessary and later inflate the coin supply towards infinity while we just could cut the emission

I stated the argument in favor of cutting the emission almost exactly that way a few posts ago.

Quote

and not to inflate towards infinity (put these coins towards the end of the curve and divide them for example for 50-100 years).

You are confusing two different issues. Stretching out the length of time longer and longer doesn't address the question of what happens after the time is up. I think you recognize this: You first said 50+ years. Now you've stretched that to 100 years. Continuing to increase the number of years to something that "seems like forever" does not address the issue.

Quote

without touching the key fundamental which is 18.4 million Moneros.

A fully fixed supply has never been a key fundamental of this coin, as I documented with the archived page above. You have Monero confused with Bitcoin or something.

Being it streched to 50 years or 100 years - it doesn't matter - even if it is stretched 25 years if you want to hurry up.

Why not make this coin a coin that will stay for long haul, not just a couple of years?
When the coin is fully mined, there may not be miners anymore to process the transactions if the fees are too high so there should be inflation at the end, too.

Like you have posted - let's not touch the total number of coins but just extend the emission substantially. It is a good idea.
I might have not read the thread carefully enough. Recently I have even being not so interested in Monero so I might have missed some updates on threads and due to the laziness and being busy also with other stuff I have not been reading every single posts here.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: Febo on November 07, 2014, 05:15:16 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:46:16 PM

The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
If the answear is NO, the coin will die, Now it looks like the volumes are down and pretty much there is no interest in buying the coin (go to Polo for some time and see).

Volume of all coins is down. I was checking quite few times where was Monero compared volume among all coins and even in days with less then 100 BTC, like was yesterday and will probably be today, Monero is in top10 of all mineable coins. Situation as it is is same for all coins. We will just have to wait that there will be more trust in crypto. Might take a months or only days. Who knows.

Yes all the bleep coins have low volumes in exchanges. Monero has been marketed of being a liquid coin (which it currently is) but I am afraid once Risto's bid has been eaten the liquidity is not there anymore (Risto's 100 btc represents a significiant portion of entire bids still despite the number of bids have grown - perhaps due this thread being updated).

smooth

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Quote from: Febo on November 07, 2014, 05:15:16 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:46:16 PM

The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
If the answear is NO, the coin will die, Now it looks like the volumes are down and pretty much there is no interest in buying the coin (go to Polo for some time and see).

Volume of all coins is down. I was checking quite few times where was Monero compared volume among all coins and even in days with less then 100 BTC, like was yesterday and will probably be today, Monero is in top10 of all mineable coins. Situation as it is is same for all coins. We will just have to wait that there will be more trust in crypto. Might take a months or only days. Who knows.

It also might take years, or maybe even just a year or two. There have been 1-2 year slowdown periods in crypto before. But by that point the current curve will be a pretty big failure. It will look like a premine to new users and it will provide little to no incentive to miners with very few coins being mined at still-low prices. (What makes declining rewards viable is the expectation of rising prices.)

By keeping the curve we are gambling on this slow period not lasting more than a few months before things pick up, and interest and prices begin to increase. I can't argue objectively that is a good or bad bet.

smooth

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 05:11:00 PM

Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2014, 05:01:26 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:49:21 PM

However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined.

You keep repeating this as if it were something new, but it is not. The same wording about a minimum subsidy was there all along. Here is an archived copy of the page from June for verification. There is one archived from May that I'm quite certain would say the same thing but it seems to be corrupted.

http://web.archive.org/web/20140625104827/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

This didn't answear the question of why now mine more coins than necessary and later inflate the coin supply towards infinity while we just could cut the emission

I stated the argument in favor of cutting the emission almost exactly that way a few posts ago.

Quote

and not to inflate towards infinity (put these coins towards the end of the curve and divide them for example for 50-100 years).

You are confusing two different issues. Stretching out the length of time longer and longer doesn't address the question of what happens after the time is up. I think you recognize this: You first said 50+ years. Now you've stretched that to 100 years. Continuing to increase the number of years to something that "seems like forever" does not address the issue.

Quote

without touching the key fundamental which is 18.4 million Moneros.

A fully fixed supply has never been a key fundamental of this coin, as I documented with the archived page above. You have Monero confused with Bitcoin or something.

Febo

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:46:16 PM

The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
If the answear is NO, the coin will die, Now it looks like the volumes are down and pretty much there is no interest in buying the coin (go to Polo for some time and see).

Volume of all coins is down. I was checking quite few times where was Monero compared volume among all coins and even in days with less then 100 BTC, like was yesterday and will probably be today, Monero is in top10 of all mineable coins. Situation as it is is same for all coins. We will just have to wait that there will be more trust in crypto. Might take a months or only days. Who knows.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2014, 05:01:26 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:49:21 PM

However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined.

You keep repeating this as if it were something new, but it is not. The same wording about a minimum subsidy was there all along. Here is an archived copy of the page from June for verification. There is one archived from May that I'm quite certain would say the same thing but it seems to be corrupted.

http://web.archive.org/web/20140625104827/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

This didn't answear the question of why now mine more coins than necessary and later inflate the coin supply towards infinity while we just could cut the emission and not to inflate towards infinity (put these coins towards the end of the curve and divide them for example for 50-100 years).
This can be considered as a solution for high emission currently + gives secure network for decades to come without touching the key fundamental which is 18.4 million Moneros.
The form of emission curve cannot be considered as crucial fundamental as the total coin supply, therefore smoothening the curve for decades can be considered as fixing a bug.

BanditryAndLoot

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on November 07, 2014, 04:49:21 PM

Okay I got the point.
However now there are suggestions on keeping up the 1 % inflation after 18+ million coins are mined. If the emission has been cut, you can do this inflation without touching the total number of coins + network will be secure also in the future when it is most needed. Currently the network security is not that crucial as it will be if Monero gets wider adoption.
Those coins that are cut from the current emission can be divided for example for 50+ years.

Don't forget about longer verification times, and vastly increased transaction sizes.

CN just isn't going to have the same number of transactions in a block on average as a bitcoin based coin, because the size of the transactions is larger. Transaction fees with CN will likely motivate miners an entire order or magnitude or two less than a bitcoin codebase, unless we were to jack up the tx fees to ungodly amounts.

Honestly, one person can max out a block with a single transaction, pretty easily.

The justification that 'oh well the miners will mine for transaction fees', carried over from bitcoin, just can't happen with cryptonote, unless we make a few people pay insanely high amounts. Even if they're okay with it, how many times a week is one person going to want to use this?

I guess you could stretch out the minimum subsidy to .1 xmr/block .. but that's still 52,560 coins per year .. not really a great long term outlook .. as to get > 20 year security we'd have to suffer insanely high prices, which only might serve to scare off investors. Who knows though .. people seem to like buying things that are expensive.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2127. (Read 3314596 times)