Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2162. (Read 3312350 times)

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

Anyway the success of bitcoin is in best interests of Monero. And despite all the strangeness of it's stagnation the overall economy is still expands...

The more I've thought about it, the more this last point seems possible.
Bitcoin seems to really be getting away from it's roots and is seemingly poised as a Visa/MasterCard competitor, rather than a currency competitor. Also, the fact that it's not truly anonymous makes it's utility as "e-cash" limited.

I would be absolutely shocked if the NSA and other 3-letter agencies didn't already have automated tools that make tracing bitcoin transactions back to individuals a trivial task. The IRS and other tax agencies around the globe won't be too far behind.

There is a possibility that at some moment BTC being loaded with all regulatory weight together with expectations can become too heavy to fly high in the sky fast enough and that will get one more chance for Monero to get accelerated by nitrous oxygen ignition.

This presumes continued exponential rises in BTC.  Those may be happening in XMR instead from here forward.

XMR market cap is 1/1000 of BTC
XMR has a head start on doing things that BTC doesn't do.

If you think a BTC whale needs to finance its BTC purchases by selling XMR, think again.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

Sure but it may be done more violently than XMR can handle.

We will see, I try to help the project from the backstage (smooth can confirm)...

Well that will distrubute the XMRs to other holders and prevent the price from skyrocketing too fast / too high. That is a good thing.

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Alpha male attitude.

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago was just a false one and we're back to the downtrend. Large dumping also today.

I founded a new thread to present an alternative to the 24/7 exchange, especially for those who:

- are very security conscious
- have a lot of coins and need liquidity
- need currency exchange (such as merchants)
- do a localmonero-style business
- otherwise feel pro.

I guess it's only one variable in a complex equation. So actually there are different directions how it can play out in reality.

Good morning. Today I provide my market analysis for fun.  

I still think my CALL for reaching 0.01 in September is very possible but it ultimately depends on if BTC rebounds before the end of the month. The key is to hunt for whales the next run up. Daytrading whales like Warz and rpietila, needs to get left behind the train so they have to buy back in expensive. We need another fresh non-monero whale possible taking price up 0.0005 or so, so our Monero daytrading whales have to surrender and buy in. If you are gonna buy in, buy in with force. We need to get rpietila and Warz afraid of missing out on cheap sub 0.006 coins. This is actually a little joke on the effect whales can have, I don't think it matters actually in the longterm we could also do a run up with many small fishes. It would only take like 400 BTC to break resistance at 0.006 and this is nothing in the altcoin market.

Here is a chart that is interesting, USD marketcap has not yet broken it's all time high, but is very close to and I predict that Monero will be affected by next BTC price swing. When BTC rebounds back up to 550+ USD, Moneros USD all time high marketcap will be broken and no one knows for sure at what price level we will stabilize after that. Monero is for me a longterm coin and not a pump n dump, so I would be very afraid to daytrade at this price level instead of just holding.


If you like my market analysis, feel free to tip at at BTC address:
1LmifzdRz2b6GNXKaSxWUP25f4a5kP1WXk

Everything donated to this address will be used to fund my upcoming Monero service. I am an entrepreneur by nature and I like to be really involved in my few investments, so this is why I have promised to create something for Monero. I encourage everyone to do the same, stand up for financial privacy and if you make money on this use it to develop things further.

And then there is this announcement that US Regulators will allows swaps of BTC. Seems most people like the idea but I know that everything that the Banksters touch turns to shit polished up to look precious.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/reuters-bitcoin-gets-boost-as-us-watchdog-cftc-approves-first-swap-780054

My link at the bottom says exactly how I feel.

The liquidity is very good for monero. The trade volume is 8th of all the coins, $270k in the last 24 hours.

In practice it's the opposite, however. The small fish (if any) jump in and out, it is not even possible for whales.

The liquidity has become really good during the last days. There was a huge pump with 700 BTC involved 2 days ago, and the price increased by 12%, now 2 days later we are hanging around 3-5% gains.

My guess would be that he meant it is hot money. Easy come, easy go. There is some truth to that.

Yeah, I'm not sure I understand the comment as well.
I was thinking about this before, how BTC early adopters have lots of BTC's and how they could use them without going to FIAT.
Well, a very obvious way is to find "the next Bitcoin", so to speak. It really looks like anonymous coins might be the way and since
the public is really just catching on to BTC (very early stages), the whales can EASILY lead the pack to the #2 coin, an anonymous one.
I'm sure they see the writing on the wall with things like how Lawsky is trying to close in on BTC. No way would I leave all my wealth
in just BTC (as far as Cryptos go.)

IAS