Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2163. (Read 3312350 times)

It is the destiny of Monero to become adopted by "masses" faster than bitcoin because bitcoin has introduced the crypto to the world citizens.

My estimation is that Monero will achieve minimum 500 000 000 USD marketcap. When Monero is fully mined, it means the price per monero has to be 27 USD.
Note, this is very conservative estimate and does not count bitcoin rises at all. If bitcoin stabilizes 10 higher, the Monero will achieve minimum 270 USD per coin value.

However it is possible to go even further since Monero serves excellent hedge against inflation and violent governements.
We all know, bitcoin cannot do it - just study case Ross Ulbricht of Silk Road.
Monero movements you cannot trace easily.
Imagine if only 1 % of tax haven money will flow into Monero, what happens to the price - especially considering the situation of hardness of accumulation of any larger amount?

Now if you want to accumulate a huge stack of Monero you need to pay more and more for each Monero since it is very illiquid asset. I am glad actually as a holder that the price basically has to go up due to the cry for liquidity.
Liquidity will follow the higher price. It is easier to buy a significiant stash of coins without much moving the price when Monero is priced around 1000 USD each than today when the price is 2 USD.

Bitcoin has opened a lot of doors for cryptocurrency, and has done much of the heavy lifting to clear the way forward.

So.. you are saying XMR might be 30 years behind BTC? In your world, bitcoin might start to exist in about 25 years then.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

Absolutely this.  I love the distribution, the innovation, and the chart.  And I'm not swing trading.  I'm accumulating.

edit: full disclosure--I have sold some of my stash and bought back on two occasions.  Won't be doing it in the future.  I was profitable one time and not profitable the other.  Overall profit, but it's just not worth the aggravation.  I'm not a great trader.

I acknowledge my stupid words. I bought in the pump over 0.004 and then sold some in the way down, making a loss. This is called bad trading, and it did not make me richer despite the boasting.

But it gave me the opportunity to distill my thoughts concerning price manipulation, which I can copy from the MEW-IW chatboard:

Now I have some word about price rigging. In the richlist it shows that 10 or more people have 1% or more of the coin. So it is quite well distributed (the foremost reason why I am interested in this coin and not anything else). Not only that - perhaps each of the large holders has at least the same value of BTC. And trading is anonymous. In this setting it is called a perfect market, and it is impossible to collude to rig the price. This is the great advantage of Monero, something that even Bitcoin does not have.

Joking about doing price manipulation is fun, but we also know that it is an empty threat really. But the trolls get food from such speaking, and therefore it would be better not to do it. The reality is that just about every other coin has the potential of price rigging, and many of them do it actively. Monero does not have this potential due to its unique distribution. Over time this fact sinks in to more and more people, causing them to also buy moneros, "the unmanipulatable coin".

and why do you think so?

i was just blathering because of this:


=D

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

Also, if someone is in the process of accumulation, he often masks his intention with having the bought coins in asks, trying to cap the price. Similarly a seller would use bid walls to try to keep price higher while he is unloading. I have tried these techniques in a liquid market (Bitstamp BTC/USD) and in a short term (a few hours) and medium trade size (100-200 BTC), they lead to an average 0.45% better execution than not employing them. That is only possible for medium+ traders who have the required funds to put up walls, and only for medium- trade sizes, because large trades affect the market nevertheless and the strategy becomes evident to an observer, if there is simultaneous buy pressure and sell walls. It may be +EV still, though, as I see it being used in Bitstamp often now.

Then there is the "legitimate" use of walls in illiquid markets. Offering a trade at a favorable price near market (lower or even higher) for a large counterparty. Buying at market would lead to slippage.

The depth that is reasonably far from the market to not be fulfilled except in extreme cases is safe to discard from analysis. Every trader would buy XMR at 300 or sell it at 500, it does not matter how many stated intentions there are listed, if you want to know where the price is heading.

When the price is going up people tend to pull their ask in anticipation of a better price to sell at. When the price is dropping people tend to pull their bids in anticipation of a lower price to buy at. At the same time in a falling market a lot of people wants to sell and places sell walls hoping to get out at a better price, and vice-versa.

Only price and volume are true. And they are verifiably true only regarding your own trades.

Buying low and selling high is still the recipe to profits.

the supply is rising if the price is falling and vice versa? - it does not make sense

the supply should be rising when the price is rising and vice versa.

maybe this stuff is traders business but from an economics point of view this does not make sense at all

No, this is very normal. If price goes down, there is more interest to buy. Monero holders seem to assume the coin has some intrinsic value. This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

We should not fight the market. If it wants to go down, there is no one single holder that can prevent it. The MEW group could try to prop up the price but what's the meaning? The group is there to build the economy around monero and not manipulate the price (I don't condemn Warz' heroic effort to defend 400 but fact is it failed - but he got lots of coin at a long term cheap price) I won't take part in concerted price manipulation.

The path of higher lows continues. It's up to the market how low we go. (If we don't go any lower after battling here for a time, and then go up, it is also a bullish sign.) A long-term negative sign would be to break 290 and I don't think that's in the cards..

I am a long term supporter of xmr - but the market manipulation on poloniex is sick.

or is it human stupidity that the amount of bids is rising when the price is falling and vice versa? or is it bots going full retard?

economically it does not make sense at all

6h ma20 seems to be important in xmrbtc and 50% fibo at 0.004, both broke down just now, if we get little more volume i predict that we see lower low (after 0.0051 top), highs have been lower too, bear market is not over yet

That wall is gone =P (pls pump it to 0.005 to show that your the man)

Supernode network for XMR.

Sorry for a noob question... What's MEW ?