Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 24. (Read 3314314 times)

not only Monero ,Zcash ,firo ,Grin all are extremely lagging behind the market. They are all at same price level or below when 2019 Total mcap crypto was 100 billion around. Now it is 3 Trillion usd.

In alts the thing that drive multi-bag gains is hype.  Monero's general hype was over in ~2016-2017.  And now it's just a boring crypto project that does what it is supposed to EXTREMELY well.  As the person a couple posts up mentioned scaling will be an issue for it, like all blockchains.  

Eventually Monero's utility will do two things.  First, it will continue to be used, but it will also draw the fire of governments.

I think it has a floor much more solid than the VAST majority of alts because it is being used.  And it will continue to be used.

If I did not think Monero still has a significant rise waiting in the wings I would not be hanging around here (and also hold what I am holding).

Eventually, as the hoards begin to file into Bitcoin the privacy realization will be heating up in a LOT of people... and there are several privacy SHITcoin premined, affinity scam, founders rewards, traps.  And there is Monero.   The only fair privacy coin, really... that works, and has no trusted setup at least.  Not to mention the only currency of the ONLY dark market that did not get shut down by the FBI and didn't exit scam.

This year?  I doubt it.  We have a month and a half to go and XMR hasn’t really showed it could do a 10x like most other alts do like it was nothing.  I mean I used to think (or hoped) it could, esp earlier this year.  But no.  I don’t think it will now.  I’d like to be wrong tho.  Lol.  

 Best tech cant win sometimes is a wrong analogy to me. Best tech is the most scalable one. if Bitcoin couldnt be widely a seamless global ,would it be success?

i hardly see Monero can achieve more than this with bloated heavy chain than Bitcoin. You cant scale,you shrink. Thats the outcome.

There are few people who care about privacy what we see from Monero's low daily. There is a hype around NFT, meme coins and Defi-projects now, so their tokens are more likely to be successful now than any other types of tokens.
What is more, I don't think that it is nessasary for those who want to be private to use private coins as privacy is a feature that can be added to already existing currencies. You even can be anonymous using Bitcoin or ethereum by using Tornado cash.

It's a bit difficult not to feel offended by the above as you basically say I am in "insider" in the gross bitcoin maximalist cult because I have a Wall Observer hat.

I try to be a nuanced person.  I typically avoid extreme positions, unless I become convinced that such a position is the solid truth.  I am not a bitcoin maximallist (strictly speaking), nor am I a carnivore, although the keto diet was good to my waistline.  I tend to be put off quite a bit by petty tribalism.  And that is true both in the maximallist world you describe above, but I also find it sadly true when I see someone like yourself, willing to paint people with a broad brush just because of a forum avatar.

I also think the "maximallists" are right about a lot of things.  Shitcoins, for example. There are VERY few crypto projects that merit a chance with or against Bitcoin.  The top 10 is riddled with premined scams.

One of the types of scams is the one that paints itself as the  project that is against all the "greedy NGU bitcoinners".  This is exactly what I am warning against.  Monero does not need to use that doomed energy.  It is a worthy project, and one that will succeed, and has.

There are two problems with this suggestion.

First, I agree from a marketing perspective Saylor is clever in his bitcoin promotion. I disagree that Saylor's approach is honest. In the hours and hours of interviews I've listened to, his marketing relies on telling half truths and misdirection to curry favor with the fiat maximalists. It would be the same for Monero with bitcoin maximalists. We would do well from a marketing perspective to adopt a similar approach with Bitcoiners, but it would rely on some degree of deception. I agree this is probably the optimal approach, but it will be difficult getting a decentralized community of enthusiasts to get onboard with this tactic. It works in Bitcoin because Saylor has such an out sized influence on the discourse. From what I can tell, Microstrategy has pivoted from business analytics to full time bitcoin marketing.

Second, have you engaged with bitcoin maximalists? Your avatar is from the WO circle jerk post, so I know the answer. I've tried to get friends and family interested in bitcoin. One look at bitcoin twitter and they universally recoil in horror. The gross bitcoin culture has been my biggest hurdle. Maybe you don't see it from the inside, but the levels religious cult like behaviour are off the charts including blind faith, heresy, and persecution of the infidels. The bitcoin inquisition is real. The pseudo macho personas are gross (shitcoins, carnivore diets, have fun staying poor, etc). Facts or logic have no impact on their beliefs. It's a big ask to suggest privacy enthusiasts try to engage in that pseudo religious cesspool.

Thanks cAPSLOCK Yah I believe the S2F is > $2000 this year. My guess is though that it may lag again unless there are macro events. The people who are getting in nowadays don't even understand crypto, so the path is harder outside of merchant adoption etc. Fireworks are also important though, just like we have seen it help BTC adoption.

Heya tifozi, long time... welcome back.  I have a feeling you may have shown up just in time for some fireworks.

You are right about the ETH angle.  In fact seems to me the whole bank/institutional money world seems to be aping in (yeah yeah) as a way to concede without conceding.  I think either out of sheer ignorance (ETH is more gizmos - therefore better) or possibly understanding (ETH is an asset we can control very similarly to how we have played the USD.  Better it than the pure thing).

You have any more thought on your exchange manipulation?  I feel like more than anything exchanges just don't want to touch Monero very much, i suppose due to the whole "drug money" stigma.  With Kraken being an interesting exception.

I do not think Monero can stay where it is for much much longer, and I think the privacy maxis entering the space are more important than most anything else in recent times.  Once folks like they understand how it works, and well, how WELL it works?  They are going to start dipping their toes in it.  The Monero Market cap (stupid metric, but still) is at LEAST an order of magnitude too small currently.  I would say it should dig well into that double digit billions realm to be fairly enough priced for it to make sense.

That means Monero in the 2k-6k realm.

With 8% of Bitcoin's transactions I think we could conceive of an 8% value to match.

Currently that is $5200.  But I think it will be more like 9k by the time we get there...  Still I would set 5k as a reasonable target because if things go well in the bitcoin space, that is a <5% chunk. 

Conservative.

Absent the Tether scam, it would have been a good fight but I like @cAPSLOCK pointers about how Saylor has gone about pumping BTC. We don't need to be adversarial to attract even the BTC crowd. It has to be done the Saylor "BTC is not competing against Dollar"  way. But fragile maxis will make sure no such things happen.

But XMR doesn't need to bend the knee and it is a fine line depending on how hostile BTC maximalists are more vocal about the whole thing, even shutting up people like Szabo. Remember also that the exchanges are clearly hacking XMR prices in order to demonstrate that it is not a good "investment". Until some big players come in and swoop large XMR away from exchanges, the monopoly and fraud will continue.

Ethereum might be the only chain getting real dollars. The BTC crowd that worships institutions prefers ETH over BTC. BTCs only talking point now is price/store-of-tether proposition. That and taking advantage of uninformed retail by MSM and social media by posting charts/tickers etc nonstop. But the fraud awareness is there more than ever.

^  Nope, of course not.  Lol.  And who could even think of a scenario that XMR could replace BTC.  BTC is waaay ahead of XMR in every way.  And most of the big guys care only about BTC and ETH cos of how large its market is and it’s liquidity.  Everything else could be a waste of time for them.

I have been waiting a LONG time to begin to see this start happening.  Since 2014 in fact.

1.  We are on the cusp of a much deeper interest in Monero from the wider cypherpunk community.
2.  We are possibly also going to be regaining the community focus as Monero as a COMPLIMENT to bitcoin rather than a competitor.

This recording of a Twitter Spaces hosted by Guns N' Bitcoins after they announced the intent to start to accept Monero (for obvious reasons) is worth a listen.

Behold the beginning of the beginning...

https://twitter.com/sethforprivacy/status/1455510248349962255?s=20



-edit avoiding multiple posts in a row for our mods-

So it gets juicy at about minute 52.  A listener states they do not understand why someone would be 100% Monero and reject bitcoin.  And another listener gave a good reason, and one that I think is fairly new-ish in the Monero community.  The answer was: Bitcoin has been co-opted.

Now.  I believe that person believes that.  Earlier in the talk someone brought up Blockstream and how they have programmed us to believe in small blocks etc.  Maybe the same person.

THIS is what I mean when I say the Monero community is using BCASH arguments now.

I am also aware that people in this thread probably agree with the assertion that is being made there.  But I think this is a really bad line.  Because there is a better way to bring people INTO an understanding of Monero without forcing them into an adversarial position with Bitcoin.

Let's use Michael Saylor as an example.  Anyone notice how he's often said he does not think Bitcoin challenges the US dollar?  If you have listened to him for more than 45 seconds you know he is smart enough to get that Bitcoin ABSOLUTELY challenges all fiat currencies.  But he is focusing on the "better at being gold than gold" angle.

His reasons are simple, in my humble opinion.  It's what Bitcoin needs to do FIRST.  And it's ALL bitcoin needs to do FIRST.  Because once it has basically replaced gold (not a trivial boss-fight in itself) then becoming a worldwide transactional currency is something that CANNOT be stopped.

But if Saylor was prancing around talking about how it is going to "destroy the dollar" then he'd be painting a target on it.  Not only is the approach sensible it's honest.  Because again, that is all Bitcoin needs to do right now.  Become the premium store of wealth.

Likewise Monero does not need to replace Bitcoin.  It just needs to COMPLIMENT IT.  And for those who truly believe Bitcoin has been co-opted?  Well don't use Bitcoin then, for sure.  But it will be in your best interest to work in a way that will make monero attractive to as many people as possible.  And you can coexist with the Bitcoin community and disagree with them.  Or even believe that Monero should and/or WILL replace Bitcoin in the end.

It is like the famous Hayek quote:


We don't need to replace Bitcoin.  We just need to keep pointing out that there are some things Monero does that Bitcoin not only does not... but CANNOT.

My final point.  This street works both ways.  There are tremendous advantages to an open transparent blockchain.  Bitcoin is better at certain things.  And it will eat all the other shitcoins features over time.  But one thing it can NEVER do is have an obfuscated base layer.

Selah.

Buyers and merchants at DNM’s are prolly used to it by now.  Whether a DNM platform was taken down by LE, hacked, scammed, rugged or with WHM’s scenario, just retired after prolly making the owners hundreds of millions of USD.  DN users just go to the next most trusted platform.  So yeah...  It prolly doesn’t matter for XMR as far as tx count is concerned.  Users will continue using it cos it’s just a lot more safer than BTC.

There are tools out there that turn the Bitcoin blockchain into an open shopwindow showing every transaction you make and who you made it to. From named Exchanges to payment gateways, darknet markets, ransomware companies etc. etc.. they even have some pretty good guesses at identifying which addresses are linked to the same wallet even if they’re not identified to a named entity. Whilst this is admirable in that if you use Bitcoin for a criminal act - you will get caught, it’s also not good for anonymity. As such, Bitcoin is more like a stock to be traded and hedged against inflation with a legitimate audit trail (showing when you bought it and sold and who owns it)- rather than cash or a legitimate bank account which still affords more privacy than Bitcoin which can be tracked wihout a court order. Trust me - these tools are very powerful and its not just ‘the good guys’ who have access to them.

XMR has been painted as a ‘coin for criminals’ when in reality it is just what is should be: Your money is none of my business and mine is none of yours!

No, and I think we have lost something because of it.  The Monero community has become shrill and anti-maxi.  But Monero does not care.

Last month there were 700k Monero transactions in October.  And 8mm for Bitcoin.  So Monero is doing 8.75% of the transactions that Bitcoin is.  And these transactions are not "gas fees" or any other artificial sort of demand.  I would even suspect that the percentage of them associated with pure speculation is also lower than most other transactional cryptocurrencies.

Eventually Monero's utility gets noticed by people smart enough to get it...  Right? lol.


PS.  There are a LOT of members of the MAXI class that are either closet Monero folks, or even "out" ones lol:

---

So:

https://www.wired.com/story/white-house-market-dark-web-drugs-goes-down/

It's interesting that Monero's transaction volume is not only not really down... it is still holding all this last month at levels above 3/4ths of the year.



I feel this is worth pondering... so i shall.  What do you folks think about that?

I do not mean this as an endorsement of illegal markets.  But WHM was unique.  They seemed to shut by choice, and no one got ripped off.

Interesting world.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

I recall one of Risto's points, that helped sell me on Moreno, was that it was a perfect complimentary blockchain to bitcoin. You won't hear many arguments like that anymore. 

The phrase shouldn’t necessarily suggest that it’s putting up a fight against BTC or that the comparison is necessarily only with BTC.  Doge obv is worse tech than XMR.  Is it even maintained?  And yet in the competition of having a higher market cap, XMR is losing ground.  As the phrase suggests...  It’s just how some things go sometimes.  No more, no less.

You analysis might be right... but that last phrase. "That better tech doesn’t mean automatic win."   That is a black and white statement that sort of puts Monero in a fight against Bitcoin.  Early in the history of this project the community did not see Monero as particularly the successor to bitcoin, but instead as a compliment to it.  After all there are MANY strong advantages to a cryptocurrency project with a transparent ledger.  Likewise there are arguments for a project whose base layer is obfuscated. 

But in more recent years the monero community has become more and more like the BCASH community with some of the devs, also being more vocal about Monero really being the replacement to Bitcoin.  A lot of the same talking points worked their way over to Monero... Bitcoin isn;t p2p cash, there needs to be an adjustable blocksize, without perpetual inflation bitcoin is doomed. 

In essence: Monero is the successor to Bitcoin.

This is a sentiment that I believe has done great damage to the monero community. It has turned the community into just another shitcoin like Ripple (The banks will use it!), or nano (fees will kill Bitcoin) or BSV (the sky is orange!  Well yeah.. BSV is a fucking trainwreck).  Monero is "The coin you thought Bitcoin was" or Betamax to Bitcoin VHS.

But luckily the community is not really that relevant when it comes to Monero's continued leadership of the privacy sector of crypto.

Monero has fallen to #40 on Coinmarketcap.  Why?  Well that's easy.  The narrative just doesn't matter to anyone any more.  Monero really NEVER positioned itself as a way to make early investors rich.  (The community has taken that BCASH slogan as well that Bitcoin is just "NGU tech" and therefore evil).  It does not have the scammy fundamentals necessary to be best in class as far as the scams do.  Shuiba Inu is doing real well there with however many trillions of coins issued...

But Monero hold the VERY UNIQUE position of being a distributed digital currency with an actual reason to exist.  It is the fairest project that is also best in class for privacy.  And there are some really nice design choices that might just contribute to it's continued success.  Like the perpetual reward, and the convertable block size.  This is what makes it valuable.  Period.

The ONLY thing that will increase the price of an asset like Monero is more demand.  Econ 101.  And the demand for get rich quick garbage is outstripping it handily.  As well as whiz-bang digital rube goldberg machines.

Monero does not need to displace Bitcoin to be valuable.  It never could anyway.  Because bitcoin is WAY BETTER AT WHAT IT DOES than Monero could be.  AND it was first, yes.

But if Monero is as useful as I think it is (in contrast to something like Shibu?) then it is severely undervalued.  So I believe it goes up in value again... someday.  it might take a while for people to get it... And frankly?  Bitcoin is the better store of value.  Monero is good for transacting with....  so if you don;t hold much, who cares about the charts? 

Right.  We want it to go up.  Yeah me too.  And I think it will.  It really has to.

^  Check out the monthly chart right from the very start it got listed.



It don’t look too good after 2018 vs BTC.  Lol.  And it’s a long term trend too.  I think it’s time to start living with the fact that Fluffy could be right when he used the beta vs VHS comparison...  That better tech doesn’t mean automatic win.

I'm not convinced this is "price suppression". Zooming out to a monthly chart, XMR/BTC remains in a 3.5 year long downtrend. Traders appear to simply be getting out of their losing positions:



The only hope appears to be the bullish divergence on the Weekly chart. But given price is back to the lows, this could easily breakdown as easily as it was established:



I think there could additionally be fundamental reasons for this continued downtrend, and why it was never broken at the start of the year (as was the case for many blue-chip altcoins). The KYC situation doesn't sound to me like much of an issue if users are using stealth addresses, but the amount of busts of darkweb dealers putting XMR into the hands of various governments could be very relevant.

For example very recently "31.6 million in cash and cryptocurrency seized". Let's assume this was mainly crypto (as it usually is when raiding darkweb dealers). Let's also assume that most of this was XMR as opposed to BTC, given this is generally known to be more popular on the darkweb than Bitcoin these days. Various states seizing millions in Monero and will likely auction it off or dump it on the spot market.

The question to me is: can speculators & darkweb customers absorb the selling pressure from various states? Theoretically yes, as the liquidity is merely the darkweb coins going predominantly back to the market I assume, but can this happen so efficiently when dozens of XMR stashes confiscated? I doubt it. Some XMR stahes will likely be years of coins being hodled, and thus too much in the short-term to absorb.

Just my theory anyway. I think the increased seizures of Monero is bringing down the price, given unlike Bitcoin states aren't going to hodl this. They would prefer to dump it along with the price to damage the ecosystem.