[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 287.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2604

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Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on May 11, 2018, 01:57:29 PM

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

My bet was before end of August. I too feel any buys now will be well-rewarded soon. XMR 2020 was right on the 200 MA. Monero is heading from 'strong buy' into 'insane not to' territory. It's just when the optimal point is reached, I am greedy but I want to buy at the bottom!

Of course we aren't the only ones studying it anymore and Monero runs up tend to be rather fast. Best to keep one's eyes peeled.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2604

Merit: 1748

Quote from: XMR2020 on May 11, 2018, 03:23:47 PM

Quote

Monetary status is a spontaneously emergent product of human action, not a rational product of human design. Individuals act out of self-interest, and technological possibilities and the economic realities of supply and demand shape the outcome of their actions, providing them with incentives to persist, adapt, change, or innovate. A spontaneous monetary order emerges from these complex interactions; it is not something that is conferred through academic debate, rational planning, or government mandate.

- Saifedean Ammous, Can Bitcoin's Volatility Be Tamed, 2018

With cryptocurrency at approximately 0.4% of the global broad money supply, and it's non-speculative use an infinitesimally smaller percentage of global money velocity, the forces of self-interest meets economic realities have barely begun to confer monetary status to this technology. The short term whims of the market at this stage are meaningless noise that we fit false conclusions retrospectively. I.E. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

Economic reality: 20% of the global GDP exists outside the state sanctioned monetary system.
Technological possibilities: Bitcoin can likely never adopt protocol level fungibility suitable to defend against the state actor level threat models. Monero is the clear leader in this regard, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
Rational self interest: A large intolerant group will demand payment in private, fungible, digital cash because their life will depend on it.

The spontaneous monetary order that emerges around cryptocurrency will reflect this complex interaction. This is the long term view that the visionaries here anticipate for the Monero project.

The price next week? Anybody's guess. The trend however, is encouraging.

The return of the bicryptomaximalist...

You post very well for a noob. Respect. Merited.

XMR2020

jr. member

Activity: 45

Merit: 36

Quote

Monetary status is a spontaneously emergent product of human action, not a rational product of human design. Individuals act out of self-interest, and technological possibilities and the economic realities of supply and demand shape the outcome of their actions, providing them with incentives to persist, adapt, change, or innovate. A spontaneous monetary order emerges from these complex interactions; it is not something that is conferred through academic debate, rational planning, or government mandate.

- Saifedean Ammous, Can Bitcoin's Volatility Be Tamed, 2018

With cryptocurrency at approximately 0.4% of the global broad money supply, and it's non-speculative use an infinitesimally smaller percentage of global money velocity, the forces of self-interest meets economic realities have barely begun to confer monetary status to this technology. The short term whims of the market at this stage are meaningless noise that we fit false conclusions retrospectively. I.E. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

Economic reality: 20% of the global GDP exists outside the state sanctioned monetary system.
Technological possibilities: Bitcoin can likely never adopt protocol level fungibility suitable to defend against the state actor level threat models. Monero is the clear leader in this regard, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
Rational self interest: A large intolerant group will demand payment in private, fungible, digital cash because their life will depend on it.

The spontaneous monetary order that emerges around cryptocurrency will reflect this complex interaction. This is the long term view that the visionaries here anticipate for the Monero project.

The price next week? Anybody's guess. The trend however, is encouraging.

Johnny Mnemonic

hero member

Activity: 795

Merit: 514

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

dominikzacny

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 2

Well for once I have to agree with you. If XMR fail I doubt I'll touch any other altcoin and stay on BTC to stay (relatively) safe. XMR was objectively one of the best and probably the most honest crypto-development I've seen. If it's taken down by pure malice then to me any interesting/fair altcoin (like idk, BBR) is doomed to be taken down the same way by the mafias that reign on this ecosystem. Whoever want me (and many bitcoiners that bought an altcoin for the first time with XMR) to buy another coin because XMR is "dead" might be disappointed by the outcome.

XMR2020

jr. member

Activity: 45

Merit: 36

Quote from: kurious on May 11, 2018, 03:23:17 AM

Quote from: elrippos friend on May 10, 2018, 11:55:11 PM

0,06125 in mid of October Cheesy

But my fresh fiat is aimed at XMR. Why XMR? Partly because I sold some late last year and the fiat is currently wasting away in the bank, but mainly because by the autumn I think anything bought now or lower is at at least a 50% discount to what I think we will see by this autumn.

My fresh fiat is also directed towards XMR. The XMRBTC just dipped below the 200 day MA, and has been historically a very smart buy anytime it is below this level.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2604

Merit: 1748

Quote from: elrippos friend on May 10, 2018, 11:55:11 PM

0,06125 in mid of October Cheesy

I think there might be upwards fun before then, see my thoughts above, but I can't rule 0.06 by October out.

It's BTC, as always, that leads the whole market. The inability to get to five figures was obvious and showed a weakness that means more pain is required before really escaping the bear market.

The stock market old-timers used to say 'sell in may and go away'...

Around a week ago I sold a portion of my BTC trading stash and placed some lowball bids stepping down from 9K which have started to be hit. But my fresh fiat is aimed at XMR. Why XMR? Partly because I sold some late last year and the fiat is currently wasting away in the bank, but mainly because by the autumn I think anything bought now or lower is at at least a 50% discount to what I think we will see by this autumn.

It's already looking a steal IMHO. The pain was coming, but if you have cash Monero might just be starting its summer sale.

DYOR.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: Hueristic on May 10, 2018, 06:34:48 PM

...

Damn, just took a look and it's just ugly right now, but I think it's whale feeding time and all the little guppies are emptying their pockets.

.

If I were to guess it could also be short squeezing time. I would not be surprised if there is a significant XMR short position by our ASIC player. There are some strange moves which may be due to the ASIC fork including a very sudden sharp rise in the price of BCN, which was very likely caused by a single large buyer. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the BCN hashrate. The ASICs may find BCN to be a more attractive home than XMO.

When it comes to squeezing shorts, my strategy is very simple one buys or keeps holding, takes delivery (this is absolutely critical) and waits,

Edit: Fish of any size can participate in this strategy.

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

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only hodl what you understand and love!

0,06125 in mid of October Cheesy

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: kurious on May 10, 2018, 01:10:24 PM

Ref: Prediction, I hope you're right, as I am a die hard supporter. I just feel we might have some pain coming, but August will be when it all kicks off again. Monero has its cycles and I have faith.

Ref: Polo - yep, the discount for the 30,000,000 USD a month players is 'optimistic' when their volume is pitiful compared to what it was. It use to trade huge amounts of BTC - ALTS, and was pretty much at the top for a while, now it's slid way down the list. Shame, I have a soft spot for it and its role in Monero's success. But in crypto things move fast and those that don't adapt, will fade and die.

Damn, just took a look and it's just ugly right now, but I think it's whale feeding time and all the little guppies are emptying their pockets.

.

kurious

legendary

Activity: 2604

Merit: 1748

Quote from: Hueristic on May 09, 2018, 06:26:33 PM

Quote from: kurious on May 09, 2018, 04:18:22 AM

I try not to do predictions - been wrong to many times before. But...

I might as well try a prediction. I am bored, so I will polish my crystal ball and give it a go.

I hate to say this, but it's not whether .024 holds, it's whether .02 will be breached. Got a feeling it'll be a grim summer.

Whatever we drop to over this summer (July might be brutal) will be at least doubled by the end of August. The snap up will be huge and fast.

I am hoping to see $500 or 0.05 region prices by end of August and a place firmly in the top ten CMC. TA pulled out of my ass, so YMMV - but it's not entirely guesswork. Historic patterns suggest hodl tight, save some powder for the summer dip and be ready to buy if / when there are trolls galore and it looks grim.

Tis not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely IMHO. AFA Polo, I looked at it's volume a few weeks ago and was totally floored at how low it had become.

Ref: Prediction, I hope you're right, as I am a die hard supporter. I just feel we might have some pain coming, but August will be when it all kicks off again. Monero has its cycles and I have faith.

Ref: Polo - yep, the discount for the 30,000,000 USD a month players is 'optimistic' when their volume is pitiful compared to what it was. It use to trade huge amounts of BTC - ALTS, and was pretty much at the top for a while, now it's slid way down the list. Shame, I have a soft spot for it and its role in Monero's success. But in crypto things move fast and those that don't adapt, will fade and die.

heidikarenina

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

The good thing about these low prices are that you can efficiently lower your average buying price. I have exploited this opprtunity since I bought the majority of my coins just under 400 and now I am able to buy sub 3 levels. Why not.

Globb0

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 2053

Free spirit

Always so beautiful.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: kurious on May 09, 2018, 04:18:22 AM

I try not to do predictions - been wrong to many times before. But...

I might as well try a prediction. I am bored, so I will polish my crystal ball and give it a go.

I hate to say this, but it's not whether .024 holds, it's whether .02 will be breached. Got a feeling it'll be a grim summer.

Whatever we drop to over this summer (July might be brutal) will be at least doubled by the end of August. The snap up will be huge and fast.

I am hoping to see $500 or 0.05 region prices by end of August and a place firmly in the top ten CMC. TA pulled out of my ass, so YMMV - but it's not entirely guesswork. Historic patterns suggest hodl tight, save some powder for the summer dip and be ready to buy if / when there are trolls galore and it looks grim.

Tis not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely IMHO. AFA Polo, I looked at it's volume a few weeks ago and was totally floored at how low it had become.

Quote from: MarioSPGroup on May 09, 2018, 04:36:02 AM

Monero (XMR)support added to Dubai cryptocurrency exchange BitOasis
It was announced earlier in the day from UAE-based cryptocurrency exchange BitOasis that the company now has added support for Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) on the BitOasis digital asset trading exchange. The two tokens have been added to meet increased demand from the customer base in the GCC.

Well that just offset those Jap exchanges.

So I can but $1350USDper week without KYC?

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on May 09, 2018, 06:06:28 AM

Quote from: dominikzacny on May 09, 2018, 12:46:13 AM

but the devs need to get their GUI sorted ASAP otherwise I'm out too.

Not really helpful to post such an abstract statement. Would you mind describing your issues in more detail?

Meh, troll post not even in the correct thread. Good riddance I say.

Quote from: Shnikes101 on May 09, 2018, 09:02:39 AM

Funny little thread running on reddit Grin

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/8i59xr/monerov_forkers_forgot_that_the_block_reward/

MoneroV forkers forgot that the block reward calculation is cumulative

wait...Wat??? Lol, Vomero already looking foolish. thx for the link.

Quote from: ArticMine on May 09, 2018, 05:18:34 PM

...

Quote

[–]ArticMineXMR Core Team 5 points 2 hours ago

I would argue that including the pre mine in the recursive formula is actually correct. What is wrong is having a pre mine in the first place, but that is an entirely separate issue.

By the way MoneroV is still a Faustian contract or contract with the devil. This is because for a limited amount of time it can claim both Monero's adaptive blocksize for scaling and a maximum coin supply. When then finite coin supply runs out making the Fuastian contract due, then MoneroV is condemned to an eternity of 51% attacks.

Edit: I do have to give MoneroV credit for innovation, since a Faustian contract on a blockchain is actually very innovative.

Your reddit post is a hoot!

energycom

full member

Activity: 172

Merit: 100

Quote from: Blueblade on May 09, 2018, 02:27:48 PM

Monero is a cryptocurrency which is actually anonymous. Most of the other cryptocurrencies are just pseudonymous. This is the reason why this cryptocurrency has been gaining a lot of traction as well.Also, it has fallen from the peak like most of the other cryptocurrencies. Thus, it might be a good idea to buy it at the current prices. This will ensure that in the future, you will be able to get a good return as well.

I'm sure about this, but I worry for the upcoming possible Monero forks. I don't want Monero to be divided into subclasses. Monero itself a good coin for the future and it has a strong blockchain. I'm pretty sure about this. We only need more attention in the ecosystem.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: Shnikes101 on May 09, 2018, 04:12:44 PM

Quote from: bitebits on May 09, 2018, 02:36:31 PM

Monero mentioned: https://www.bloomberg.com/company/announcements/bloomberg_galaxy_launch_cryptocurrency_index/ (by Michael Novogratz)

Just skimmed it but didn't see dollar amounts. I'm sure it's out there though. Would love to hear them justify their initial weightings

Quote

Current Cryptocurrency Weightings
Bitcoin 30.00%
Ethereum 30.00%
Ripple 14.14%
Bitcoin Cash 10.65%
EOS 6.11%
Litecoin 3.77%
Dash 1.67%
Monero 1.66%
Ethereum Classic 1.00%
Zcash 1.00%

Their methodology is explained here: https://www.bloombergindices.com/bloomberg-galaxy-crypto-index/

Shnikes101

full member

Activity: 254

Merit: 109

Quote from: bitebits on May 09, 2018, 02:36:31 PM

Monero mentioned: https://www.bloomberg.com/company/announcements/bloomberg_galaxy_launch_cryptocurrency_index/ (by Michael Novogratz)

Just skimmed it but didn't see dollar amounts. I'm sure it's out there though. Would love to hear them justify their initial weightings

Quote

Current Cryptocurrency Weightings
Bitcoin 30.00%
Ethereum 30.00%
Ripple 14.14%
Bitcoin Cash 10.65%
EOS 6.11%
Litecoin 3.77%
Dash 1.67%
Monero 1.66%
Ethereum Classic 1.00%
Zcash 1.00%

bitebits

legendary

Activity: 2242

Merit: 3523

Flippin' burgers since 1163.

Monero mentioned: https://www.bloomberg.com/company/announcements/bloomberg_galaxy_launch_cryptocurrency_index/ (by Michael Novogratz)

Blueblade

member

Activity: 266

Merit: 10

Monero is a cryptocurrency which is actually anonymous. Most of the other cryptocurrencies are just pseudonymous. This is the reason why this cryptocurrency has been gaining a lot of traction as well.Also, it has fallen from the peak like most of the other cryptocurrencies. Thus, it might be a good idea to buy it at the current prices. This will ensure that in the future, you will be able to get a good return as well.

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2744

Merit: 1288

Quote from: Karartma1 on May 09, 2018, 01:12:10 AM

Quote from: Febo on May 08, 2018, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: Karartma1 on May 08, 2018, 03:42:37 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 08, 2018, 10:36:58 AM

I will say my enthusiasm for the Circle deal was somewhat dampened when I figured out you could not (yet?) deposit and withdraw. But I am hoping that is on the roadmap... have heard rumors it is.

Otherwise what's the point of that addition! I don't like when things are announced but the actual product is not on the way. Sounds fishy in terms of price speculation before an inevitable...boom

Product is there. You deposit USD and then you can buy Bitcoin, Litecoin, ETH, ETC, ZCAsh, Bitcoin Cash and Monero. But you cant then withdraw coins but only you can sell them and withdraw USD after you earned on crypto bull run. That is what Circle is offering. This is sort of not a crypto economy that Satoshi had in mind, but I guess it is inevitable that banks will invent all kinds of things to earn on crypto but still not let it be fully decentralized. All centralized exchanges are sort of same, just one step further. Eventually both will extinct.

Thanks for clarifying. In any case, whatever one wants to put it if one cannot buy, sell and hold those coins I see really no point in using Circle. I can do that differently without having to rely on a third party Wink

Ofcourse you and me can do. But there are quite many and in times of Crypto fever as it happened in November and December 2017, most of people would rather not to bother with wallets how to securely store their coins. This is made for them. I guess Circle is aware that there are that many such people that they will profit greatly out of it.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 287. (Read 3314316 times)