Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 371. (Read 3314309 times)

Following the advice of others which seemed sound to me, I buy and hold Monero in cold stores etched on to iridium plates stored on three continents using a redundant variation of Shamir, for the most part but also trade swings on vega volatility with 5% of holdings.

My long term views are based primarily on fairly standard economic models for money supply, for the PPP correlation of currencies modulo RFR differences, estimation of the growth rate of DNMs and their adoption curves, and of reserve demand levels for digital assets.  Given such estimates, parameterized by event timing, one derives a distribution surface which can be integrated out to determine the rNPV of Monero.  When it is below the current clearing price, XMR is undervalued, and vice versa contrariwise.  The first order estimate is roughly 3k USD in 2020,  when I plan to begin divesting 10% of contemporaneous holdings annually.  (The distribution is fairly wide, however, and the horizon obscured by intervening construction.)  Naively, i.e. without risk adjustment over the scenario distribution, that provides an NPV of ~2700.  The correct risk adjustment is basically impossible to make without Monte Carlo (baccarat), and has huge sensitivity to model missteps, both parametric and structural, so I won't go in to detail on it, except to say that in the end, over that tenor, integrating over scenarios, I get an rNPV of ~2100.  In general it is the high weighting of the model's tails which makes the estimates so high.

I discount for model error by a factor of 10, which is just a dead reckoning based on past experience with model error and leg lengths during Fashion Week.  Consequently, today I buy for the long term under 210.  A simple volatility trading strategy is to sell an aluminum ladder based on  z score, and to buy when the valuation discountings yield an undervaluation judgement.  I last sold at 400, and when I sell again will be determined by the price path after the manner of my poker instructor, Feynmann.  If it rises too high too fast, I start selling from the 5%, and buy them back on the opposite ladder, up to the penultimate rung.  Residing in Chile, I can hedge these swings with options on correlated futures in an SPV without incurring the Tobin tax.

It is not just fiat, I have requested a XMR withdrawn from Bitfinex and it has been more than 5 days and it is still "processing".

So I had forgot I had a old bitstamp account and tried to recover it.


No email has been received after 10 minutes.

There will definitely be a Monero rise as it has been with ETH, time will come when everyone sees Privacy coins are the future

That is why I've been saying we need to use XMR as way of exchange, not value hold. I try my best to use available services in XMR, even if it is a little more expensive, even if I have to put fiat into XMR just to use it to buy something, instead of buying directly, even if receiving part is going to get fiat.

But maybe the most important thing is pushing where we can to make that happens, and that means where we can accept XMR instead of fiat and try to force it at most.

This is the only possible outcome to our success.

Always enjoy you sticking your neck out with impossibly unpredictable market forecasts.  You've been right enough in the past though to warrant a reckless fresh one...

Merit for fun.

What I am very interested in is firstly, BTC and your 'flippening' prediction. Then, secondly, Monero's place - which I DO hope you're correct on.   Right now, personally I'd be happy just to be top 10 (and above Dash).  That would make my day and it's not too much of  stretch to hope for, either.

Yes despite the bloodbath market, Monero is well and strong
look at its BTC price https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
it is strong stable. I reaffirm my stand

Thanks alot for this info. Looks like the NWO is putting the screws to us.

Visa withdrew the license for all companies offering a BTC linked visa card a few weeks ago - so all Visa BTC cards are now extinct. It took me weeks to get my funds released. Also Bitwala had their bank cease all btc to fiat withdrawals.

Bitwala are claiming though that they are very close to releasing the first BTC bank account, so your BTC account will be linked to a Bitwala debit card and Bitwala bank account...but we shall see.

I think BTC to Fiat will become increasingly difficult.

21st June 2018 Predictions
Top 10 Market Cap Order (irrespective of price/marketcap)

1.       ETH
2.       BTC
3.       NEO
4.       XRP
5.       BCH
6.       XMR
7.       ADA
8.       LTC
9.       XLM
10.     QTUM



Good luck everyone! ♥

[06/21/18 00:00 UT]

I forgot to mention a few weeks back my buddy told me that happened to him as well with Western Union with a BTC conversion (So I let him borrow at the casino LOL).


There are all these loadable visa card for BTC why don't we have one yet?

Someone Tell them Fucking whales to get their shit together!


Funny I just did the opposite! I have been using CU's for 37 years and just moved to a Bank, My CU has been screwing over left and right for a few years now. I thought I'd never Goto a bank!


Bitstamp has KYC and is costly for under 20k USD purchases I've read and kraken backpedaled on their USD CC acceptance and gave me a hard time verifying and is just a shitty place to trade on.


I have never heard of bitflyer is it KYC?

AFA bitstamp, this:

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitstamp-is-asking-users-who-want-to-withdraw-a-lot-of-questions/

LOL

https://mobile.twitter.com/BluffetW/status/950487940316135424

I always thought bitstamp and kraken offered service to the US.    If not I really don't know.  I assumed you had more alternatives than I did, in Canada, but maybe not anymore?

bitflyer was quick and easy to setup for me. https://www.bitflyer.com/en-us/

I already have several accounts at several banks and a credit union. After this is all over I'm closing all of my wells fargo accounts and using a local credit union that I like.


What is the alternative to coinbase? I couldn't find any other exchanges in the us that would allow me to withdraw fiat.

Sickening.  You use Conbase and Wells Fargo because...?  I mean coinbase. and fucking wells fargo.  Man.  I suppose you could insert for similar disgust.  Coinbase blacklisted coins in ?2013?  That was their end as far as I'm concerned, and bitcoin's too.  Thankfully I didn't have long to wait for a superior option.  So far no issue other than stupid delays from the banking end, but that can change...

Quote from: Millionero on February 02, 2018, 09:49:55 PM

Quote from: Anon136 on February 02, 2018, 09:41:02 PM

So if anyone needs any more motivation to bet against the banking system by buying crypto today wells fargo refused to wire transfer my money because "it came from coinbase". I asked how long would I have to wait they said it wasn't a matter of waiting. I can never wire transfer that money. That's really what they told me. The slimy fucks.

Can you open an account at a better bank?
And then make a point of letting WF know exactly why you're closing your account...  maybe toss in a reminder of how they've recently been engaging in a prolonged and deliberate fraud on their own customers by opening phony accounts in their names.  Send a letter to the corporate headquarters.

Fuck them.  No explanation.  No business.  Tell your story far and wide to help others see reason and GTFO.  They are doomed anyway, why help them to plug the leaks?  Kick that shit wide open instead.

Can you open an account at a better bank?
And then make a point of letting WF know exactly why you're closing your account...  maybe toss in a reminder of how they've recently been engaging in a prolonged and deliberate fraud on their own customers by opening phony accounts in their names.  Send a letter to the corporate headquarters.

So if anyone needs any more motivation to bet against the banking system by buying crypto today wells fargo refused to wire transfer my money because "it came from coinbase". I asked how long would I have to wait they said it wasn't a matter of waiting. I can never wire transfer that money. That's really what they told me. The slimy fucks.

USD to XMR is obviously in the tank. What do you think XMR to BTC will do this year?

Your very welcome, I aim to give solid and verifiable advice at all times without bias. Although I believe this to be the best CC in the world I have never drank the koolaid so you may see me from time to time not touting the party line but I have to admit the party here is ontrack and doing great things as a whole. A very solid project that should continue as long as they continue to keep the eyes on the goal posts and not get distracted by the glitter on the sides.

Thanks for advice, Ill take it on board