[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 494.

explorer

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Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on November 07, 2017, 09:38:43 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 07:10:37 PM

Quote from: Billy Bunter on November 07, 2017, 04:43:42 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

According to that data, we should hit several thousand dollars next year.

Along with $20K BTC, it wouldn't be shocking. Shit's gonna get interesting, that's for sure.

ArticMine

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Activity: 2282

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: Nathan047 on November 05, 2017, 09:16:09 PM

Quote from: walonek on November 05, 2017, 12:17:27 PM

Did I mention that masses does not price privacy? Did i mention that masses price SECURITY?

First of all, many people do value privacy. Second, why not have both (like in the case of Monero).

--

Quote from: walonek on November 05, 2017, 12:17:27 PM

Privacy is not priced... Ask your neighbour - "if you have nothing to hide, why to hide?" - regular answer.

The Germans kept records of people’s ethnicity and religion. Guess how Hitler used it (in case you’re a bad guesser: he used it to track down Jews).

It goes a lot further than this. There was very sophisticated data analytics behind the Holocaust involving IBM punched cards and tabulating machines. In fact one could actually argue that the Holocaust was powered by punched cards and tabulating machines. To anyone who believes that privacy has no value I highly recommend Edwin Black IBM and the Holocaust http://www.ibmandtheholocaust.com/ A list of "consumers of kosher food in continental Europe" may sound innocent enough after all it is only going to be used to target relevant adds for groceries to those who have a particular interest in purchasing kosher food, thereby enhancing their consumer experience. Now time shift this list by 80 years and one has a critical component for mass genocide.

Now I am not saying that Monero may prevent a future genocide; however if all it does is gum up the gears of genocide, by denying the machinery of genocide the data it craves, then Monero has the potential to save millions of lives.

Bitcoinaire

sr. member

Activity: 696

Merit: 439

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 07:10:37 PM

Quote from: Billy Bunter on November 07, 2017, 04:43:42 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

According to that data, we should hit several thousand dollars next year.

Billy Bunter

sr. member

Activity: 327

Merit: 252

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 07:10:37 PM

Quote from: Billy Bunter on November 07, 2017, 04:43:42 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

Interesting analysis. Thank you.

LennyCarl

full member

Activity: 176

Merit: 108

Quote

Yeah, that happened to me on a large Eth short in the past. Ate all my profits from holding that short for a month and a half. I closed when I broke even and then it dumped like mad, shit my timing sux! Cheesy

Sucks it happened to you in that case but I'm okay with burning xmr shorters.

LennyCarl

full member

Activity: 176

Merit: 108

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 07:10:37 PM

Quote from: Billy Bunter on November 07, 2017, 04:43:42 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

I like Keanu's reasoning!

Johnny Mnemonic

hero member

Activity: 795

Merit: 514

Quote from: Billy Bunter on November 07, 2017, 04:43:42 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Anon136 on November 06, 2017, 12:47:25 AM

Who flagged my post and got it deleted? And why? Anyone else having perfectly innocuous posts deleted by mods? Very strange.

I get short posts deleted all the time, since they are just quick replys I don't mind. they are usually off topic.

Quote from: aminorex on November 07, 2017, 12:40:10 PM

Fungibility and conversion: https://mechanicalmarkets.wordpress.com/2017/11/05/bitcoin-nemo-dat/

Now how would this extend say to the monero's I bought with btc that are still on said exchange? Hmm

Quote from: LennyCarl on November 07, 2017, 06:36:02 PM

Haha. I guess eventually the rates will skyrocket and one could take advantage of the auto renewals of the shorters...

Yeah, that happened to me on a large Eth short in the past. Ate all my profits from holding that short for a month and a half. I closed when I broke even and then it dumped like mad, shit my timing sux! Cheesy

LennyCarl

full member

Activity: 176

Merit: 108

Haha. I guess eventually the rates will skyrocket and one could take advantage of the auto renewals of the shorters...

Globb0

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 2053

Free spirit

Quote from: LennyCarl on November 07, 2017, 05:19:48 PM

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges? I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: LennyCarl on November 07, 2017, 05:19:48 PM

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges? I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

Somebody with a pile of coins for rent cheap died a couple years ago, and those coins just keep lending, and lending, and lending...

Or

Lots of rope is left out, the better to hang shorters when the time comes. It has always been thus with monero. > 0.01 % rates happen, but rarely.

add:

33K coins available (not all cheap). Wasn't long ago that anything under 150k was a low float. Coins under 0.01% only ~1100 XMR

LennyCarl

full member

Activity: 176

Merit: 108

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges? I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

Billy Bunter

sr. member

Activity: 327

Merit: 252

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 04:26:11 PM

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 03:51:57 PM

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

I'm not so sure about that. Remember 9 million coins were mined (and likely a large fraction of that dumped onto the market) over the first 18 months. Someone wanting to accumulate not even 10% of that could probably do so at a good steady rate without ever clearing the book (in fact possibly without ever making a market order).

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.

Globb0

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 2053

Free spirit

Actually he was an advocate of buy the dips and sell the highs. Then rinse and repeat.

I have always been too scared after a bit of a big loss when it never came back.

Johnny Mnemonic

hero member

Activity: 795

Merit: 514

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

generalizethis

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1036

Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 03:51:57 PM

Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2017, 03:46:35 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 02:38:39 PM

Quote from: generalizethis on November 07, 2017, 10:29:23 AM

Quote from: mambamanagement on November 07, 2017, 10:20:28 AM

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost ~~at sea~~ in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era.

Risto has always been enthusiastic and vocal about Monero and has never been one to need prompting from the herd to support his opinions, so while I may doubt the hack, I don't doubt the amount--what's great is we'll never know

Johnny Mnemonic

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Activity: 795

Merit: 514

Quote from: smooth on November 07, 2017, 03:46:35 PM

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 02:38:39 PM

Quote from: generalizethis on November 07, 2017, 10:29:23 AM

Quote from: mambamanagement on November 07, 2017, 10:20:28 AM

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost ~~at sea~~ in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 02:38:39 PM

Quote from: generalizethis on November 07, 2017, 10:29:23 AM

Quote from: mambamanagement on November 07, 2017, 10:20:28 AM

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost ~~at sea~~ in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

generalizethis

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1036

Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on November 07, 2017, 02:38:39 PM

Quote from: generalizethis on November 07, 2017, 10:29:23 AM

Quote from: mambamanagement on November 07, 2017, 10:20:28 AM

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost ~~at sea~~ in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Risto's claimed amount that was stolen from him.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 494. (Read 3314316 times)