Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 569. (Read 3314316 times)

I know its stupid. But I really think it's different this time. I think there are too many normie institutional investors looking for a BTFD price. That never was the case before. I bet ~4000 is the cyclical low. I mean where the eff does one find value in this market any more? Fixed income? Stawks? Give me a break. There is no where else interesting for one to put their money. Bitcoin offers more upside potential than even retail debt at a fraction of the risk. That's why this radical rally happened in the first place. And its not like anything changed.

*edit* Yea ok there is precious metals. And they are probably actually finally a good buy because of this. But they are such a small market that they could increase 100 time with plenty of capital left over to sustain or propel bitcoins price higher.

Prolonged BTC bear market. Long-term BTC waves tend to follow patterns of multiples of 4 or 5. Peaks at ~$250.... slides to ~$50. Up to ~$1000.... back down to ~$250. Peaks at $5000.... long descent to ~$1000 - $1250. Then back up to $16000 - $20000.

Having said that, while the temptation is to draw a parallel with the bear market that followed the 2013 peak there's some key differences. The bear market of 2014 was just as unexpected as the Nov 2013 peak that preceded it and was pretty ugly. The mood this time is more upbeat, defined by expectation, preparation and opportunity.

So I wouldn't be surprised if a 12 month bear market down to ~$1000 actually manifests itself as a 6 month bear market down to $2500 before rising again.

Clearly any bear market will drag ALT/USD prices down with it, but ALT/BTC prices for the strongest cryptocurrencies (Monero included) will likely remain stable, if not bullish for those not wanting to evacuate into FIAT.

A useful indicator will be the Ethereum price. If a BTC bear market is confirmed and ETH/BTC descends then it would point to another ugly bear market for all crypto. If ETH/BTC starts to rise then it would imply people have a desire to stay in crypto but merely recognise that BTC is currently overpriced for where it is right now. And if that happens then that's good news for Monero (at least from the perspective of speculation.)

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

There is no positive news from the economy of the United States. I think this is a positive effect on Monero and it will raise its price.

I think Moreno's price is going to go up to $ 300. Of course this will not be short term, but in the long term (I mean 1-2 years), this is not impossible.

I can't help myself I buy about .02BTC every week no matter what the price.

AFA the second bold, Yup burned once I won't let it happen again.

The upside outweighs the downside bye such a huge margin that I cannot understand anyone who would think selling in any case less than an emergency is shooting themselfs in the foot. Never forget we had no warning of the alphabay adoption until they had already loaded up their wagon. that can easily happen again at any time.

Whether or not bitcoin comes back after that will be all down to utility. Did the community manage to solve scaling? And privacy? Are transactions cheap enough to be competitive with the card companies for every day commerce? Those things dont matter so much right now because its a speculative bubble. But some day when that bubble gets shaken out it will be the only thing that matters.

Sounds very reasonable, but I think people may have different definitions for short, medium and long terms. What would constitute short and medium terms to you? A few weeks, a few months or a few years?

I see what you did there...

I said long ago I will sell 10% when reach $50 and then 10% more when reach $100.  I did not do nothing ofcourse. Just buy some more. At least none for over $100. Not yet.

If we get 2014 again, i doubt I will do anything.It will just be a depressing 2018.  I will survive that way much easier then if sold my precious Monero and suddenly would be on sale for 5 times higher price and could buy back 5 times less.

I never said anything about never. I'm referring to short and medium term. I see a good possibility this current bull run in crypto may be close to running out of steem. That doesn't mean crypto doesn't have a bigger future but it requires both internal and external changes, which may come more slowly.

Then again, nothing is guaranteed. I may be completely wrong.

Certainly impossible before next Tuesday at 7:00pm, but definitely should happen sometime before Tuesday, September 7th... 2117 



Well, presumably your TV has an OFF button? Or you're Alex? 

Very interesting posts smooth. Also I respect your work.

Are you never expecting XMR to go big time then? Like 3K-5KUSD?

You sentiment seems to indicate this kind of growth is impossible due to saturation of the market.

EDIT: Also love to hear from Aminorex on this.

Do you have any timeline when we reach $500K?
Or else John McAfee will eat his ... on national tv. I don't want to see that. 
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065?lang=en

and whats your target if i may ask , i dont want to sell any more xmr below 500... and even then im only selling a very small portion

If Monero was a lady in reality, actually then your description of a proper lady would have attracted a lot but we have a slight problem here and that is it is a crypto currency and we don't have time to watch her taking rest before putting on a great show. I hope your lady gets this in her head soon before being replaced.

Sticking to a plan is far easier said than done. The closer you get to hitting your price target, the more difficult it becomes to resist selling early. I'm finally on the home stretch and it is every bit as excruciating as I expected. But I will wait out another long bear market if it comes to it, because I'm not selling a fucking thing below my target.

To clarify I'm not pointing to a bearish sentiment (though one could point not only to the China news but to the increased regulatory pressure from the SEC in the US, Canada, Singapore, and others as potentially bearish) as much as to increased downside risk and decreased short term upside.

Personally I am acting on this belief by reducing my risk profile in crypto positions to those I'm more comfortable holding through a possible correction or even bear market, but that doesn't mean selling all or going short.

Monero in particular I haven't yet sold any at all (in a long time), but I'm considering lightening up on that too here. >100 USD/XMR and >1 billion USD cap is great, but again, short- to mid-term, relatively reduced upside and increased risk.

Thanks, smooth... and thanks everyone for this thread lately.  Great discussion overall.

I'm still optimistic, however YES it's possible a re-emerging bear sentiment could be right.  I admit that this last China Scare Drop for some reason hit me harder than I've been accustomed to lately (even my wife noticed) -- I still didn't DO anything about it, still HODL'ing, but I was open eyes paying ATTENTION much more than usual for some reason. Maybe instinct? LOL

It's unrealistic for anyone to expect to call a top exactly, so as long as we're still reasonably close to our peaks lately ($4K-ish for BTC, still over $100-ish XMR) I'm personally gonna assume that the bull-run is still ON and we're just takin' a lil' breather here.

However if/when things really start to turn DOWN again, I expect most of us here will be able to see it happening long before giving back most of these nice gains that we've booked "long-term on-paper" over the last year-plus.

There will likely come a time when a flip out of crypto into more tangible diversified assets will be the smart move for nearly everyone here. I trust that all the intelligence and astute observations here in this thread will help all of us do that, in time as appropriate.

Thanks again for everyone's contributions, youze guyz R da greatest

I'm not sure that this is the right interpretation. I was one of the people who inquired one of my friends "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?" in 2013. But he didn't convince me to get involved, and when it crashed it confirmed my doubts. So I was very late.

Back then I also saw that interest around me but just like me, almost none of the people I knew got involved.

Now, things have changed, I know quite a few people (for example a befriended actor, a young female architect, another guy who's always between jobs) who neither have a lot of money nor have ever invested before but they are putting a little into crypto. But it's still only a small percentage of the people I know.

And I know all kinds people with lots of money who have not (yet) invested in crypto. I just met a very wealthy couple from Los Angeles and they haven't even heard of Bitcoin. (I couldn't believe it). This is, of course, unusual but I think crypto is still far away from the masses.

So, "who is left"? I would say it's the 99%. Crypto is not just interesting to the classic wealthy investor types but to all kinds of people from all walks of life. And it's just starting.

But with all the nonsense coins and ICOs there is also a lot of potential for market correction. If you look at the dotcom bubble, most companies went broke but the few that emerged have grown much larger than before the bubble popped.

It will be interesting to see if it will be the ONE cryptocurrency to emerge or if the future will have a multitude of successful cryptocurrencies.

A strong correction would be nice, because i would like to invest more but I'm not counting on it to happen before a substantial rise and then it will be questionable if we will even see the current levels again.

Edit: I just read your last comment, I guess you're right just not sure we will see a correction at this level. Who knows...

Edit2: Another thing, people always quote the burst of dotcom bubble as to why crypto has to burst but there was only one dotcom crash so far (17 years ago) and we already had one big Bitcoin crash, so perhaps that was the one.

I'm not saying there won't be a crash, I'm just not sure that it's as inevitable as some make it out to be.

A couple out of dozens is a large portion when considering exponential growth of viral ideas. Compare this with 2014 when no one gave a shit about crypto and you would literally have to poll hundreds or thousands of Average Joes (limited to AJs with money) to find someone interested in it much less owning it.

This does not mean there is literally no one left who could buy who hasn't bought yet. Most likely, by the time we realize that has happened it will be too late and the price will already be crashing, unless you are able to call the exact top (unlikely). It means we are getting close. The balance of risks has become more symmetric. The remaining upside is quite comparable to the plausible downside.

Note, I'm talking about short to mid-term upside without some sort of major change to conditions. I'm not talking about some plausible but fairly remote scenario where crypto replaces gold or the dollar as a global reserve currency for example. I'm making a short- to mid-term trading observation based on current market psychology and demographics. If you think that outcome is likely (enough) and are comfortable with large drawdowns while waiting for it then by all means buy/hold/increase your long term holdings.

Honestly I absolutely agree with you that this will happen... only we're really not there yet, IMHO.

My example of people "finally coming around" is only a couple out of literally DOZENS that I know, who *could* come around and who still have not.  NOT by a LONG SHOT have "most people" even considered "coming around" yet... LOL

YES, When the proverbial cab-driver and shoeshine-boy are giving out crypto-coin tips, then YEAH of course that's the bearish sign of peak-bubble-top.

But I sincerely believe we are still far, far away from that time.

Let me postulate here, gentlemen, that BOTH sides of this debate are probably right?

Perhaps we'll see an epic hockey-stick run-up of bitcoin even a further 10X from today's $5,000-ish price, to maybe a "crazy mind-boggling unbelievable impossible" $50,000-per-฿ era... and THEN you'll be hearing crypto-tips from the cabdriver, LOL, and THEN the expected and long-overdue 50% to 80% crash back DOWN to "only" $10,000-ish per coin will happen.

Lives will be ruined, crypto will be "dead", longtime naysayers will smugly declare they "told us so", etc etc etc.

And a long bear market over several years (like we endured after 2013 with the price slowly bleeding out from $1,000 to $800 to $400 to $200... before it *finally* started to come back up, to $600-ish just ONE YEAR AGO (!!!) from whence it's run today to almost $5K) will start again, "down" even more from $10K to maybe $5K-ish...

And THEN the dawn will break and things will reverse *again* and we'll regain $10K then soon enough $50K... and then it'll be off to the races once again in a cycle that'll run from $50,000 to the $100K's and maybe at nearly full global adoption some day, peak $1-Million per coin (when a single satoshi will be... a penny).

Maybe it'll happen this way, or maybe not.  Maybe we're all RIGHT and there'll be an 80% crash in the future but maybe this current bull-run ain't over yet.

Or (most likely) HoneyBadger will surprise us all and do something totally different from all of these speculations, LOL