Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 570. (Read 3314316 times)

nice post smooth. I think the total cryptocurrency market cap will be over 1 trill by 2021... exciting times ahead guys 

That is the usual way, yes. When BTC was completely dominant, it was clear as daylight, in the previous 3 waves. It may still happen as you say.

However, in this wave , the whole thing has been complicated by so many significant competing Cryptos, and a greater maturity in the trading markets. Possibly the top will be a long messy one, rather closer to the stock market 'roll-overs'. For sure, re-rating of different projects is going to be the big profit play this time.

Understandable, but, I don't see a 'peak' yet.  Just some swelling foothills that always precede the peak (BTC) The steady rise and consolidate program should shift to an up up and away format, followed by a peak, and a 50% retrace.  There just hasn't been enough excitement, and Peter Schiff still has hair.  Masterluc's projection fits with my gut feeling. 
:popcorn

Spot on, I think.

Barring a real outlier event, this is probably the penultimate wave before the true recognition.

On that basis, expect a decline to gradually build momentum until it erases 80% on average. The winners will be down 60%, the losers will be down 95% or more. Timescale between 1 and 3 years before the final wave up starts. All based on conjecture and previous fractal patterns.

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.

There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.

That is how I feel, except the other way round.

The upsurge of interest from the previously unconverted, and long time skeptical ppl from all quarters,  is screaming to me that the peak is in  (based on decades of closely following markets)..

but I am hoping that I am wrong.


In trading, I so frequently find I am saying to myself  ' damn, I wish I hadn't been correct'.  Only long-time, hard-bitten traders will understand that.

It has changed indeed.. But is the conversion of so many skeptics a sign of future growth, or just a sign of a peak in price (hopefully not a permanent peak) ?

A true contrarian would see it as a warning sign. 

I'm betting it will survive. I don't necessarily think it will be unaffected.

Defo it will end, but I don't think that means XMR is going to 25usd.

In fact I see it at 500usd+ in a year.

I suppose you could call the dot com crash a "shakeout" as well. How quickly did that happen?

Do you see the current "ICO fever" as something that's here to stay, or a point in cryptocurrency history that eventually comes to an end?

It did rise from around 50$ (always going down in terms of btc when btc rose) to around 120$. This was a catapult to new highs, no?


I don't think that this scenario has to happen (it could, of course) but it's just as likely that the market will keep growing for quite some time and a lot of useless or outdated cryptos will just silently fade away (like they already have been doing). If crypto just reaches a fraction of the importance the Crypto utopians predict than this market is still tiny. I think that a lot of the day traders here just view cryptocurrencies as a pump and dump vehicle for their personal short term gains and tend to miss the bigger picture, the fantastic revolution that cryptocurrencies are. (Not saying that you are part of that.)

Interesting is this pro con discussion in which the yale prof (who takes the con side) says that the term "bubble" is often misunderstood.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/3000651983

Idk if there will be a correction I have a feeling that this is the beginning of the new age for crypto there is so much news so much awareness around it that it would seem "almost" impossible for it to crash again like we saw last time. Like a previous poster stated there is a 50% increase in the awareness of crypto the fact that, that alone caused the prices to jump to all time highs for the longest length of time we have seen I think maybe your just being pessimistic....

80% is optimistic?  I agree a shakeout is inevitable, but an 80% drop across the board is not going to be a sudden thing. 80% of coins withering away is likely but only over time and a few will more than make up for the MC loss overall by being the ones wih real use cases. 

XMR will be one of them.

Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?


I do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.

I agree with what you say. My perplexities are not on the monero or on the team behind, otherwise I would not have focused much on this currency; but I fear the (negative) externalities around the market. States are thieves. And where they can not put his hands then they say he is rotten ...

Same here. after a lunch at a friends house. % days later i had a whatsapp message saying he spent 100 in coinbase. If the movements are anywhere near normal some of that BTC, LTC and ETH will flow to other alts. I did my part talking about monero...

I've had 2 in the past month. Both are conservative financially, one very much so (debt-free, lives well below his means, etc.). If someone like him opened a coinbase account, that's a big deal.

This.  Absolutely.

Seems like a little more bear-ish sentiment around this thread than usual lately but that may be a good thing: keep our feet on the ground a bit more as it were.

However, and I'm far from being any sort of 'sage' like some folks here, I don't trade, I only HODL really: so nobody should pay any attention to whatever the fuck I think, LOL, but seems to me that despite not really wanting to ever say "this time is different", umm, heh... this time IS different!

Compared to bull/bear sentiment we've seen in the past, lately it just "feels" to me like it's stronger now. More widespread. More new blood finally starting to think that all this crazy shit all of us lunatic-fringe, pre-early-adopters have been harping on to our skeptical and resistant friends and family over the last 4-5-6 years, maybe it is *finally* starting to take hold, even just a little bit.

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

How many people have a very conservative friend who recently finally opened a coinbase account and put in even just a hundred bucks, to just START learning for themselves how all this stuff really works?

I've had BOTH of those things happen to me recently, in the last month or two, and if it's even slightly representative of what's happening overall in a macro scale of adoption, then we are only at the very start of a really significant hockey-stick curve ramp-up coming over the next year or two.

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

Hopefully you will be right. However, markets don't go up in a straight line, and chart patterns are fractal.

It's all probabilities, so take your positions and we will see !

Exactly my thoughts as well. I considered sending a small amount and grabbing those and converting it to some shit coin just to take a gamble but i'm still in a short that I want to keep open. If it's still like that next week then I'll do it.


My experience with that is I have called BTC drop correctly a few times and have converted to fiat and rebought and it worked out gret until it didn't! I converted to fiat when XMR was 1.37 figuring I'd buy back in a month or 2 and I was correct but I had a bad run IRL and had to use those funds (850 xmr) and when it came time to rebuy I didn't have the funds available and was not able to re-enter and it was less than a week later that alpha bay hit out of the blue. So that is the Major issue you can run into. Things can happen over night. Also a problem doing this not is the fact that XMR is often tied to USD (it was much more so when the DM's were running) so even if btc tanks XMR will not reflect that as much as the other coins and has been known to rise with btc dip.


Nice try at the soft troll but no-one believes a word of this, trying to accumulate?