Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 669. (Read 3314325 times)
Monero updates are so hard to come by. I wonder what the devs are doing at the moment. Been too long without updates guys...
Back on business: Monero seems to have an undecided direction. The short time speculators have a great day, I guess.
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Polo has a sizable sell wall at that amount. I noticed it around six weeks ago...anyone know how long it's been there?
I think we'll hit 0.025BTC after multisig is fully released AND Coinomi includes Monero, both of which should happen "soon."
It has been there since #fluffygate.
Putting it all in ETH doesn't make sense and holding a ton of BTC on August 1 could potentially be a bad idea (depending on who you ask).
Unfortunately I feel like a drop in Bitcoin's price would hurt all cryptocurrencies, so I'm just HODLing my BTC and hoping it skyrockets instead of dropping...
My guess is that BTC will drop (perhaps a lot) while all the forkings play out, at first. All the confusion means "uncertainty" and markets HATE uncertainty.
Then once whatever "clear winner" emerges (may take a while) we will see a huge spike UP, perhaps even one of those long-overdue 10X runs that HoneyBadger's been famous for in the past (a penny to a dime, dime to a dollar, dollar to $10, $10 to $100...)
We've just barely left that long-time, extended "$100 to $1000" era here now at "only" $2500 which is "only" approximately a measly doubling... once the long-overdue "Scaling Debate" ANSWER is *finally* decided, one way or the other, SegWit or LargeBlocks or what-the-fuck-EVER... maybe THEN we can *finally* see the next era of $1000 to $10,000 *finally* kick in!!!
Or maybe the forkings will just destroy bitcoin entirely.
So $10,000+ MOON or $0 FAIL binary outcome? Same as it ever was...
Anyone think we'll see an XMR/BTC all time high soon? Or are we way off?
Where were you the day the piss off Anonymint Monero bull run began?
http://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-16-monero-chart-looks-good-right-now
If Stellar airdrop is successful, you gentlemen might wanna consider airdropping on the hardest hodlers in the business..
Back on business: Monero seems to have an undecided direction. The short time speculators have a great day, I guess.
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Polo has a sizable sell wall at that amount. I noticed it around six weeks ago...anyone know how long it's been there?
I think we'll hit 0.025BTC after multisig is fully released AND Coinomi includes Monero, both of which should happen "soon."
Putting it all in ETH doesn't make sense and holding a ton of BTC on August 1 could potentially be a bad idea (depending on who you ask).
Unfortunately I feel like a drop in Bitcoin's price would hurt all cryptocurrencies, so I'm just HODLing my BTC and hoping it skyrockets instead of dropping... 
Back on business: Monero seems to have an undecided direction. The short time speculators have a great day, I guess.
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
Polo has a sizable sell wall at that amount. I noticed it around six weeks ago...anyone know how long it's been there?
I think we'll hit 0.025BTC after multisig is fully released AND Coinomi includes Monero, both of which should happen "soon."
Anyone think we'll see an XMR/BTC all time high soon? Or are we way off?
Supply consists of dishoarding, transaction churn, and mining. Mining means almost nothing, relative to daily volume. Dishoarding seems to have come to its end, at this price, leaving market makers and transactional flips to dominate the exchanges. The flip rate appears to be, therefore, about 3mm USD per diem. Using pq=mv and assuming the pessimal velocity of 365 / escrow time (21d) = 17.4, we can estimate the transactional float as 3mm*365 / 17.4 = m = 63mm USD = 1.3mm XMR. (The global velocity is then about 1.6, which is rather low for a healthy economy but pretty good compared to major global currencies ATM).
Assuming reserve demand to be stable (again, a pessimistic assumption), doubling the transaction rate while holding velocity steady should double the clearing price. Pessimistically, then, the clearing price should be directly proportional to transaction flow rate.
There are thus three ways to increase the clearing price: Add reserve demand (reducing the effective float), add transaction demand (increasing the size of the economy) or decrease the velocity (reducing transactional supply).
In fact, I would expect velocity of the effective float to rise rather than fall, so hope of future appreciation is either speculation (on the madness of crowds), or else it is dependent on the fundamental assumption of rising reserve and/or transactional demand. In practice these two demand factors are highly correlated: observing a rising transactional demand motivates an increased reserve demand, while a rising price motivates dishoarding, which is subject to re-hoarding in a process of saver churn, known as "stronger hands".
Notionally, the reserve market is discounting the future transactional market as well as its own dishoarding rate. R_now = R_eq + r * Dt * (dM/dt + dR/dP) , where Dt is the equilibrium horizon, P is the clearing price, dR/dP is a negative value, - dR/dP << dM/dt, and r is a discounting ratio per unit of t (time). For fixed velocity, then, knowing the growth rate of the transactional market, dM/dt, would allow one to estimate the mean discounting rate and the dishoarding rate by observing a sequence of equilibrium prices, and hence provide a prediction of the price over time as a functor parameterized by the equilibrium horizon. (I made one particularly egregious simplification, of the kind that motivates the moniker "dismal science", in order to keep this post short).
I am slowly buying below 45$ these days, and my daily return on market making capital is now less than 50bp. I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.
Assuming reserve demand to be stable (again, a pessimistic assumption), doubling the transaction rate while holding velocity steady should double the clearing price. Pessimistically, then, the clearing price should be directly proportional to transaction flow rate.
There are thus three ways to increase the clearing price: Add reserve demand (reducing the effective float), add transaction demand (increasing the size of the economy) or decrease the velocity (reducing transactional supply).
In fact, I would expect velocity of the effective float to rise rather than fall, so hope of future appreciation is either speculation (on the madness of crowds), or else it is dependent on the fundamental assumption of rising reserve and/or transactional demand. In practice these two demand factors are highly correlated: observing a rising transactional demand motivates an increased reserve demand, while a rising price motivates dishoarding, which is subject to re-hoarding in a process of saver churn, known as "stronger hands".
Notionally, the reserve market is discounting the future transactional market as well as its own dishoarding rate. R_now = R_eq + r * Dt * (dM/dt + dR/dP) , where Dt is the equilibrium horizon, P is the clearing price, dR/dP is a negative value, - dR/dP << dM/dt, and r is a discounting ratio per unit of t (time). For fixed velocity, then, knowing the growth rate of the transactional market, dM/dt, would allow one to estimate the mean discounting rate and the dishoarding rate by observing a sequence of equilibrium prices, and hence provide a prediction of the price over time as a functor parameterized by the equilibrium horizon. (I made one particularly egregious simplification, of the kind that motivates the moniker "dismal science", in order to keep this post short).
I am slowly buying below 45$ these days, and my daily return on market making capital is now less than 50bp. I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.
Is aminorex off his meds again?
The best shady market is a government.
If you're in Russia or Ukraine or other former USSSR clones I full agree...oh yeah and 99% of the middle east and Asia
You forgot Eastern Europe, the Balkans (not necessary USSR clones) and Africa.
Poor countries are usually this poor because of the shady governments.
Shit yes...I also forgot about australia the UK and the US
From what I know they are not so poor and corrupted, but I won't argue with you Back on business: Monero seems to have an undecided direction. The short time speculators have a great day, I guess.
Any idea what's next? 0.025BTC? Or I wish too much?
The best shady market is a government.
If you're in Russia or Ukraine or other former USSSR clones I full agree...oh yeah and 99% of the middle east and Asia
You forgot Eastern Europe, the Balkans (not necessary USSR clones) and Africa.
Poor countries are usually this poor because of the shady governments.
Shit yes...I also forgot about australia the UK and the US
UK is not so bad , really
The best shady market is a government.
If you're in Russia or Ukraine or other former USSSR clones I full agree...oh yeah and 99% of the middle east and Asia
You forgot Eastern Europe, the Balkans (not necessary USSR clones) and Africa.
Poor countries are usually this poor because of the shady governments.
Shit yes...I also forgot about australia the UK and the US
The best shady market is a government.
If you're in Russia or Ukraine or other former USSSR clones I full agree...oh yeah and 99% of the middle east and Asia
You forgot Eastern Europe, the Balkans (not necessary USSR clones) and Africa.
Poor countries are usually this poor because of the shady governments.
Ukraine.....must be hotspot for shady markets as well.
The best shady market is a government.
If you're in Russia or Ukraine or other former USSSR clones I full agree...oh yeah and 99% of the middle east and Asia
Ukraine.....must be hotspot for shady markets as well.
The best shady market is a government.
Done , hope this helps! 
Thanks!
Few words about this voting.
This is a biggest ukrainian exchange, also is a comfortable for deposit/withdraw local currency.
So thanks to all Montero's and your "likes"
Ukraine.....must be hotspot for shady markets as well.
Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!
One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.
https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229
One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.
https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229
done
Done , hope this helps!
Thanks!
Few words about this voting.
This is a biggest ukrainian exchange, also is a comfortable for deposit/withdraw local currency.
So thanks to all Montero's and your "likes"
AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?
If they really exit scammed, I'm pretty sure XMR is one of the cryptocurrencies they'd wanna park and hide some of their value. Putting it all in ETH doesn't make sense and holding a ton of BTC on August 1 could potentially be a bad idea (depending on who you ask).
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