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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 78. (Read 3314316 times)

hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
October 14, 2020, 01:00:02 AM
what is ngu
legendary
Activity: 3766
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Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 09:19:28 PM


   I really expected to revisit 0.0105 range.  Nope.  Off we go!  

Wheres the volume though?  Although if we break this...  wooooo hooooooo.

And you know what I relish more than just seeing NGU?

XMR putting some of those ridonkulous shitcoins in the top 10 back in their place.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
October 13, 2020, 09:16:01 PM


   I really expected to revisit 0.0105 range.  Nope.  Off we go! 
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 09:10:18 PM
I wonder when everyone else will join this guy from 2 days ago that fat finger bought 35k XMR up to $147 on Binance. I am bored of this $12x&$13x prices. Time to move on.



I always wonder about those.  Like you say was it a slip?  Or a drunken "eff it?". Or does the guy know/think something?

Seems much more than trival to throw 2.5-3 million bucks at something on a whim... but I suppose some can.

But my oijia board lines and graphs... we have a lot of room to strech out over the next hump.  I think i saw it as 145?  But 137 might be the top of it?  I still think 145 will offer resistence... in someones our friend on Binance fulfilled my prophesy. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
October 13, 2020, 07:47:35 PM
I wonder when everyone else will join this guy from 2 days ago that fat finger bought 35k XMR up to $147 on Binance. I am bored of this $12x&$13x prices. Time to move on.

legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
October 13, 2020, 06:26:10 PM
Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?



Nicely done!

Thanks
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
October 13, 2020, 06:12:10 PM
Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?

legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
October 13, 2020, 04:59:51 PM


The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.



Seems like last week it was about half of that...  Per hour  Cheesy  My first try at mining.  Ya I guess it was a while ago, but the stark contrast backs up my earlier point on emission rate.

Damnit, I can't make this embed.

https://gfycat.com/coordinatedmeekgenet
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
October 13, 2020, 04:31:21 PM


Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

From Monero.how:

Code:
MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
Monero     Bitcoin           Ratio
Oct 2020 (est) 559,057 9,612,227 5.82%
Sep 2020 396,854 9,495,331 4.18%
Aug 2020 381,555 9,793,583 3.90%
Jul 2020 331,181 10,158,131 3.26%
Jun 2020 340,895 9,192,440 3.71%
May 2020 400,871 9,092,682 4.41%
Apr 2020 365,875 8,702,021 4.20%
Mar 2020 303,291 8,904,203 3.41%
Feb 2020 231,953 9,439,548 2.46%
Jan 2020 257,942 9,612,337 2.68%
Dec 2019 216,720 9,430,057 2.30%
Nov 2019 212,716 9,243,776 2.30%

Looking to eclipse May  Shocked


Code:
TRANSACTIONS PER HOUR
974 tph
 
Last hour 974
24hr high 1056
24hr low 365
24hr avg. 673
7 day avg. 707
30 day avg. 636


Code:
TRANSACTION FEES PAID (LAST 100 TRANSACTIONS)

Txn fee (XMR/BTC) Txn fee USD

Monero (lowest) 0.000016 $ 0.0021
Bitcoin (lowest)0.000144 $ 1.6521

Monero (median) 0.000031 $ 0.0039
Bitcoin (median)0.000302 $ 3.4586

If I'm reading it correctly, XMR has similar circulation to BTC, ~1%  ~2% of the trading volume, ~1% of the price, and ~5% of the transaction count. Not to mention  ~0.1% of the transaction cost.
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
October 13, 2020, 09:57:54 AM
I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.
97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.
Will this start to make an impact?

The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.


I wonder what the Koreans are doing with their XMR. They were a big part of the run up last time right? Where will they sell?
Also, perhaps it's now a blessing that XMR wasn't on Coinbase all this time. To acquire XMR you had to look outside of the biggest exchanges.

Most of those volume was fake. Most of those exchanges are now charged for fraud making fake volume. Just check the news.





Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

Yup, when people trade also transact. Combining that will increased use that is going on continually for more then a year, we got a great day and a week for Monero transactions.


Monero Atomic Swaps implementation funding

https://ccs.getmonero.org/proposals/h4sh3d-atomic-swap-implementation.html

Monero Atomic Swaps will hep Monero short term but also help Bitcoin drastically long term.


legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 09:06:30 AM
Healthy pullback = Healthy pullback

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 08:44:27 AM


Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.
newbie
Activity: 8
Merit: 2
October 13, 2020, 07:52:36 AM
I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.

I guess it depends on the impact of day to day usage. It's probably very small compared to the daily volume on exchanges but what if some people remember the stories about people spending BTC on markets that later turned out to be worth thousands? They might decide to keep a little on the side.

Are there any other coins that are actually used for something today?

Right now it's BTC, ETH and XMR.

Everything else is just used for trading and speculation based on predictions of future products and usage right?

Are Chainlink, Cordano, Polkadot and EOS actually being used for their intended purpose?
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 07:36:53 AM
Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?

I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 07:31:24 AM
Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

Oh, and by the way...  This is really becoming my favorite mental rabbit hole... the idea that Monero could effectively become a privacy side chain of Bitcoin.

Monero is the strong front runner for privacy.  Even better than the lightning network.  If we can get that ball rolling it stands the chance to be a bit of a black swan event in my opinion.  It would be a solid use case for a separate but cryptographically joined block chain to Bitcoin.  It's the next killer app.  Maybe?
newbie
Activity: 8
Merit: 2
October 13, 2020, 07:31:19 AM
Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 07:27:06 AM
Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

But no matter how we slice it we start to see those early bags move around it's gonna spook the market.  That reality will never go away.

I honestly think one of  CSW's angles was to  lay out the legal precedent to be able to demand access (via a fork) to those early blocks in all three major Bitcoin forks.  Luckily not only is that plan stupid, but the legal world seems to be having none of his BS.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 07:24:16 AM
Who knows about Wycoff stuff?  I know nothing about it... but all the shapes look like things I have seen in wycoff example charts...





Have you got a link?  My eyes seem to be failing.

Heh.  I suppose those are teeny pictures.  But my thought is the monero chart looks a lot like the first part of the Wyckoff examples I always see...

If you are still interested look for the header "Accumulation: Wyckoff Events" In this article and you will see what looks a lot like the current XMR chart with all the Wyckoff anatomy.

hero member
Activity: 1874
Merit: 840
Keep what's important, and know who's your friend
October 13, 2020, 07:24:13 AM
Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
October 13, 2020, 07:20:08 AM
In USD the next trading ranges are:

Between 95-115
Between 115-140
Open skies!

The timeframe is the harder question, and I think depends on the broader crypto markets.

I expect those two areas to put up fights.

The reason I am talking USD is because I think a lot of the new money coming in will be thinking in USD, and bitcoin's rise also brings us into those areas.

Looking at it in the more important XMR/BTC shows a similar potential progression, though.

This happened much faster than I thought it would... and it looks like the top end was closer to 135.  I guess the question now is do we spend some time in the 115-135 range or bust through that in a week or two?
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