Thank you for that. It is usefully informative. It would be even (and much) better with scale alignment.
To me it seems folly to analyze XMR denominated in BTC, although I was myself subject to this folly until recently. The fundamentals are much more easily recognized using gold or any major fiat currency - I tend to use USD - as numeraire.
XMRUSD is pretty stable at $20, so in my (1% of XMR holdings) trading position, at present, I buy below 19 and sell above 21.
You might recall that I anticipated recent levels on this approximate time scale last summer, by using Fisher's quantity theory, as calibrated by Alphabay volume estimators. I have not done any further analysis yet, so I can't presently make any principled quantitative predictions. As time permits and data allows I may do so soon. My intuition is that $25 will become strong support by June. The upside asymmetry is growing rapidly due to exogenous risk factors, but support levels should continue to be determined by economic use in dark net markets during the near future. As they grow, so will XMR's utility value.
Meanwhile, some qualitative logic guides me, none of it new, and all of it supported by the evidence of the past few months, since my previous prediction:
1. Masternode (dash, pivx, crown) anonymity is (1) honeypot technology, and (2) a scheme for bleeding the economy to death by rents. No such system can form a stable economy. Any price runs are bubbles. While shorting is supremely risky, and requires a strong and steady hand, I find it emotionally gratifying and financially lucrative. I actually had a masternode for a while, but soon repented and sold it because I could not stomach making gains by deceit and oppression. (I have made charitable donations in excess of those gains as a sop to my bruised conscience.)
2. Transparent blockchains expose their users to extortion and robbery. Consequently they involve unwarranted risk, and can not persist in their moneyness.
3. App coins are generally a deceitful way to fund an Enterprise. "Turing completeness" is ludicrous snake oil and there is still no compelling use for "gas", after years of waiting. It is all dot-com hopium smoke.
4. I have long predicted the beginnings of the demise of the debt-based fiat currency system to become perceptible in 2017q4. I will soon be proven either correct or incorrect, in the sense of being early, but even if my point-estimate proves over-eager, the underlying demographic deflationary implosion, resource exhaustion, systematic energy bleed, and exponential inflationary debt- (and inevitable supply-) explosion will reach a climax when the Boomer retirement peak arrives around 2024. USD lost most of its value since 1971 (when Nixon broke the tie to gold). It will lose an even larger proportion, and likely in fact ALL of it's value in excess of hard reserves times some yet-unmeasurable confidence*utility multiplier, on the 2024 time scale. Crypto and hard assets are the place to be, and money is only beginning to realize this. Those ahead of this curve will enjoy the fruits of their foresight during the next 7-10 years - if they can stay alive that long.
By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money.
The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough. Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale. I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close. It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm. Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.
?? Never touched that shit in my life.
