If you've followed Crypto Economy for a while you'll come to agree that traditional "Analysis" has not been a fit for what has happened in the Space. It does not reconcile to the current paradigm of the currently adopted Analytical Metrics. So with that said, I believe one has to FLY HIGH and take an aerial view of things; gain a new perspective and allow yourself to accept the "Paradigm Shift". I've put this perspective into to practice and now amazing sceneries are the order of the day.
Crypto World might crash soon but it'll only be to rise again. I believe $XVG Developers need to keep developing as they are (BTW they're kicking it) and HODLrs need to HODL, Adopt and Share the news. SEE IN A WAY WE CAN CREATE THE FUTURE. Bill Gate's dream: A PC in every home when almost no one had one, in other words he set the precedence, he created the "Analytical Metrics" he made a future. I say $XVG will be $1.00.
I have to agree with you, that technical analysis does not apply to what has been recently happening with altcoins. With a lot of noobs and all the new money that came into it, all sub 100sat coins have soared in hope of great profits and $XVG has been a part of this trend. The question is how long that trend is going to continue.
I see a lot of enthusiasm in this thread and sometimes I'm not sure about where does it come from. Are there any solid fundaments behind it? You can see people claiming that the development team is great and hard working and whitepaper (actually black) is solid and that is promising bright future for this coin.
Anybody is encouraged do his own research. I'm a developer, so I took a quick look on Github repos (located under
https://github.com/vergecurrency) to see for myself, how development has been coming recently. What I saw did not spread my suspicions and bolster my optimism. Activity graphs on almost all repos are flat. There has not been much activity since October last year and recent activity in May is mostly about rebranding to Verge and about publishing a blackpaper and some minor changes like build configuration, release versioning, etc.. Overall Github repo doesn't show any intensive development activity.
Regarding black paper, it looks like the team did not put much effort into it. The coin has been here for some time and it looks like the black paper has been created only to support recent increased interest in the coin.
All that raises my suspicions that recent enthusiasm is only hype and has weak fundaments. Hype is everywhere, especially Telegram group is full of Lambo pictures
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Please prove me that I am wrong
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With introduction on Poloniex and continuing influx of new money we might see prices above 1000 sat and we might have great profits. But beware the whales are waiting for cashing out too
. I've been holding some decent amount from 60 sat and I'm already excited about current value. But based on reasons above and without any serious development and adoption I'm pesimistic about price reaching 1$ even in the long term.
1. As a whole $XVG is in a Space Vertical with much interest behind it: Private Transactions. Right there partaking in the same focus of Giants (relatively speaking) in the likes of $ZCash (who just married JP Morgan), $Dash and $Monero. Private txs were the catalyst for the adoption thus far of BTC, and indicators are showing this to be the continuing trend. See Point # 2 in this article:
http://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-releases-state-of-blockchain-q1-2017-research-report/2. Yes White Paper needs expansion but for now it provides clear and consice objectivity.
3. Recent development in line with Objectives:
A. Tor Network, Tor Clients up and running - check
B. Delivery on i2P network - check
C. Electrum Clients and Servers - check
D. Multi Algorithm Support allowing for a broader mining base
Though I don't agree with your pessimism I understand your view. Whales will Dump Holders will Hold at the end one class will prevail.
As to all the recent Enthusiasm; it's the spice of life. Enthusiasm is the fuel behind innovation and value is the incentive for Developers to rise up and create like there's no tomorrow. Yes, Value imparts new hope making dreams seem possible and this makes people work, it makes them sweat and persevere, it also provides funds for growth.
Hope to see you on the moon