Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 137. (Read 269580 times)

Another proof of d/sma20 majority.

Daily SMA20 represents a middle line of Daily Bollinger Band with common parameters (20,2). When this middle line crossed to opposite side of BB - trend changes and middle BB turns into next trend support/resistance. So it is hard to break it, but since it broken - we see a trend reversal until next heavy attack against d/sma20.

Also in this figure you can see that cross appears when BB is coiling. And it is coiling now. Will the middle BB fail or stay? Watch it.

Middle BB fail will happen when candle close below it. For 99% sure it must stay on next retest.

Perhaps "Market", but you don't hear that from me. It's been fascinating reading your analysis and I've learned a lot from following this

I hear the voice of Market. It says "Lucif, fuck you. I'm tired. Need to rest".

A short overview what do we get for today. No changes in short/middle/long term trends and targets.

We get a doji yesterday like first doji in this drop with heavy volume. Volumed doji shows heavy fight between bulls and bears. Also it shows this price level strenght. Whether it fall or stay - it would be hard to break it again.

d/SMA20 did stay at this level for yesterday. Note that d/SMA10 was broken with also heavy fight and now provides strong resistance. For a while price stuck between the upper and nether millstone. Will it stay or drop? Lets wait some days.



Look from hourly basis. Expirence shows that such drops/spikes retraces at least to 38.2% fibbo level from low/top. Mostly to 50%. And more rarely (60/40) to 61.8% level.



From one hand, decreasing volume may say that retracement is complete and we may continue wave down.

From other hand, such big volume spikes are rare (one within 1-2 weeks). And market may be tired for this time and needs consolidation - form some sort of small triangle.

From third hand, we have strong d/sma10 pressure from upside and strong d/sma20 support from downside. Price need to escape from this nervous zone to rest some time in consolidation.

Will keep updates.

With best regards from hell, Lucif.

Palce a bet on betsofbitco.in !

I'll bet on it

Stay on topic.

Aww Cypher, I must have struck a nerve for you to mention me so much. lol

I'm not a day trader. I'm a cycles trader like yourself. I've been trading in and out weeks and months between trades.

Once again you fail. LOL!!!  

But then again YOU KNOW EVERYTHING don't you? ROFL!

P.S. I certainly could prove I am up over 1000% but what would that net me? Perhaps you might be so kind as to make a wager on the matter worth my time and effort to expose my trading history on both BTC-e.com and MTGOX.com? 

You certainly implied we were trying to control the price with your mention of the price in regards to our "postings" on this forum.

Your emotions? Flack?

If it was nothing why post? Sounds like you were addressing "something" that you claim was "nothing" but yet if that were true why reply at all?

I'm sorry sir but your logic fails. LOL! 

perhaps.  remember when i was the only one i know of except for tvbcof to have been bullish after the crash to $2?:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/warning-how-many-of-you-bears-have-ever-been-a-victim-of-a-short-squeeze-48850

loooooool, Guys, easier! None at all, no one can know what will happen tomorrow (when no news). If the analyst is wrong - it is normal. Everyone understands that, why so offended? I also do not think that we will go under 10. But I write this now, how do I know what will happen next week? If the price is easy to fall below 20% - I change my mind. This is normal. There is no telepaths.

cypherdoc, people judge you by what you say publicly not privately. So by that you are certainly one of the most if not the largest bullish participant in the speculation board.

i said long ago that most of you around here will get shaken out of this bull market by overtrading.  i see plenty of evidence that this is happening.  


Blitz, and just what exactly is wrong with having been bullish all along?  i would submit that the majority of traders who've had the discipline to hang on over the last year and a half are UP with their accounts.  afterall, there has been only approx. one month in the entire 4yr hx of Bitcoin trading where the price has been higher, so statistically my claim should be valid.  of course i'm sure Smoothie will jump in here and say he's up a thousand %.  maybe, maybe not.  i can tell he's a day trader though so i have my doubts.  

i've made it public that my average cost in is around 6.50 so i've more than doubled my money w/o any trading headaches by being a "permabull" as you call it.

the obvious question some of you might ask is then why should we subscribe to you cypher if we all know you're just a bull?  the answer is that most of my subs are inexperienced traders that don't have the discipline to hold tight.  they need to be talked through big selloffs and have it explained to them why i remain bullish.  there will come a time when i say sell though.

and i'm not always bullish; i alerted my subs during the August selloff minutes before it happened.  from that move it was obvious what would happen so you can't call me a permabull.

i don't get this.  i never said you were controlling the price.  what i was referring to was trying to control my emotions given all the flack that happened overnight (much from you) that turned out to be a bunch about nothing.  

of course you do.  but once you started criticizing my analytical methods you opened yourself up to the same criticism, no?  but with your criticism, don't you think you sound a little hypocritical refusing a refund from me?


and what's this about changing your target now?  you posted this target just yesterday.  you criticize me for not posting targets and i told you why:  the trend is your friend and stick with it.  trend following is a highly regarded form of TA just like wave theory, cycle theory, etc.  so why do you criticize me for using it?  i would argue by changing your targets within only one day is actually counterproductive.  it shows you have no conviction in your analysis.  what is the new target btw?  and what good is a moving target? 

by trying to trade every wave i submit that you are encouraging overtrading.  this will wipe your account very quickly in fees.  the more sophisticated investors on this forum understand the value of not doing that.  they are patient and understand it is futile to try and trade every wave.

i would also argue that by drawing so many lines, squiggles, fibs and pointing to "strong" or "weak" this or that support/resistance lines, you are hedging.  this allows you to point to whichever scenario that fits a subsequent market movement and say "see, i predicted that".  i see this all the time in different newsletters and it bugs me.

my newsletter otoh is a black and white analysis of where i think the market is going in the intermediate to long term timeframes.  i do not hedge my recommendations so of course i will look wrong in the short term as the waves go up and down but generally trend in the way i think.  i also try to keep it simple for readers although i do perform more extensive analyses underneath.  yes, its either BUY or SELL.  i've shown you in screenshots how i will hold positions for 7 mo at a time.  it works for me.

@ Cypher,

No one said we were controlling the price. The fact that you HAVE TO acknowledge that the price is up "1.xx%" shows how much of a bull you are.

When we go sub $10 what will you say then? "Look price is up 100% since last May"

All I can say is LOL!! 

Less talking about the past and more talking about the future eh?

Less "look at when I am right" and more "look at when i was wrong".

 

Yes "LOL" is in order. Don't speak too soon though.....LOL!

If TA can judge the ratios of different minded traders and their combined influence from the figures alone, it is truly interesting. I will look into it, might even take a class course on it if it works.

Thanks for explaining lucif. (I won't sacrifice a chicken, even if it helps)

Market is complex system consists of many-many persons and forms super-person. Some people puts emotions there, some people gets them out.

Single person can not be a market. Single person's impact can accelerate or slowdown the waves depending of persons internal power. But overall wave direction is decided by whole market.

I dont beleive in Manipulator.

TA predicting whole system status and internal dynamics.

Right lucif thats true, but you can't judge the size of the market to know when the move is big. Serious traders don't have their orders laying all over the book. So a decent sized move down, compared to the visible orders, might be nothing compared to what a big buyer is hiding on the bid side.