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Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 42. (Read 269579 times)

legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 07:51:15 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"?

"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!"

EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P

Both sound like bullshit the way you just described them.

Its now how i described it... its about learning the method... stop wasting your time posting in this thread with ignorant comments... just go study TA for yourself and then come to this thread and share your views with lucif. Stop fucking criticizing without even taking your time to learn...

EDIT: if you only had the slightest crave to learn, at least you could have read in the triangle description that the descending triangle can break up too... Wink

I never stated TA was bullshit, in fact I enjoy perusing through much of it. And it is about how you described it because that is what my comment was directed at. "hmm I think this will definitely go down.... wait.... no it's going to go up!" What's stopping you from reaching another "confirmation point", "wait.... no it's going to go down!" Sounds like a load of bullshit to me. Just because it's open to change doesn't prove anything if your analysis only accounts for what happens after the fact. And what you're saying is that the descending triangle can break up too? So it can go either up or down right? No way.... Also, arepo is not your typical bull, he is also a technical analyst so your comment there was off the mark as well. Perhaps you're the ignorant one.



If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

The "i know TA, you are the ignorant one" comment is a recursive one... learn to play it well...
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Sometimes - history needs a push.
April 28, 2013, 07:38:52 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"?

"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!"

EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P

Both sound like bullshit the way you just described them.

Its now how i described it... its about learning the method... stop wasting your time posting in this thread with ignorant comments... just go study TA for yourself and then come to this thread and share your views with lucif. Stop fucking criticizing without even taking your time to learn...

EDIT: if you only had the slightest crave to learn, at least you could have read in the triangle description that the descending triangle can break up too... Wink

I never stated TA was bullshit, in fact I enjoy perusing through much of it. And it is about how you described it because that is what my comment was directed at. "hmm I think this will definitely go down.... wait.... no it's going to go up!" What's stopping you from reaching another "confirmation point", "wait.... no it's going to go down!" Sounds like a load of bullshit to me. Just because it's open to change doesn't prove anything if your analysis only accounts for what happens after the fact. And what you're saying is that the descending triangle can break up too? So it can go either up or down right? No way.... Also, arepo is not your typical bull, he is also a technical analyst so your comment there was off the mark as well. Perhaps you're the ignorant one.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 07:06:34 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"?

"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!"

EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P

Both sound like bullshit the way you just described them.

Its now how i described it... its about learning the method... stop wasting your time posting in this thread with ignorant comments... just go study TA for yourself and then come to this thread and share your views with lucif. Stop fucking criticizing without even taking your time to learn...

EDIT: if you only had the slightest crave to learn, at least you could have read in the triangle description that the descending triangle can break up too... Wink
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 07:04:45 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo
Hallelujah, at last someone with some rationality left in this thread!

this thread is not for your rational pleasure... fuck off... make your own thread. The same goes for smoothie... at leas arepo made his own thread.
donator
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
April 28, 2013, 06:51:15 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo
Hallelujah, at last someone with some rationality left in this thread!
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
April 28, 2013, 06:49:15 PM
"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

did i say this? Huh

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Sometimes - history needs a push.
April 28, 2013, 06:46:43 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"?

"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!"

EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P

Both sound like bullshit the way you just described them.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 06:43:34 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"?

"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!"

EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
April 28, 2013, 06:26:34 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 03:23:18 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
April 28, 2013, 03:21:09 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 03:12:12 PM
We had a false breakout... triangle still in form. Now better formed though.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 02:18:40 PM
Redrawing the lines of the triangle doesn't make it a triangle lol...unless it is a moving triangle.

TA lots of time is skewed towards the bias of the observer.

"it looks like its doing a bearish triangle....yep triangle is still in tact"

"okay here is the new triangle...still in tact"

"triangle?"


http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html



legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
April 28, 2013, 10:29:54 AM
Redrawing the lines of the triangle doesn't make it a triangle lol...unless it is a moving triangle.

TA lots of time is skewed towards the bias of the observer.

"it looks like its doing a bearish triangle....yep triangle is still in tact"

"okay here is the new triangle...still in tact"

"triangle?"
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 10:19:37 AM
Triangle seems to be braking up
 

EDIT: maybe retesting Weekly BB
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
April 28, 2013, 07:13:01 AM

tl;dr -- following a trend has a better profit/risk ratio than manipulating a trend, on average.


In the fully general case, this is likely correct.

That is: Any fixed strategy to "control" or "manipulate" any market indefinitely will lose, on average, in the long term.

However: If this is the case, why is price manipulation prohibited in mature markets?

I think we can find very good reasons to assume that manipulation events*,
(painting the tape, playing up volume, painting candles near hourly/daily close, decisively breaking resistances, and so on... )
can be very profitable, relative to risk, especially in an immature, unregulated market,
especially one with no underlying asset, especially when trending sideways.


*(Tactical, time-bounded, in pursuit of some definite objective, with a pre-determined failure/stop-loss criterion.)

+1

i thought this was an excellent post as well and started a new thread split from this one to expand on this topic, for anyone who wants to follow the conversation.

-arepo
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 07:10:09 AM

tl;dr -- following a trend has a better profit/risk ratio than manipulating a trend, on average.


In the fully general case, this is likely correct.

That is: Any fixed strategy to "control" or "manipulate" any market indefinitely will lose, on average, in the long term.

However: If this is the case, why is price manipulation prohibited in mature markets?

I think we can find very good reasons to assume that manipulation events*,
(painting the tape, playing up volume, painting candles near hourly/daily close, decisively breaking resistances, and so on... )
can be very profitable, relative to risk, especially in an immature, unregulated market,
especially one with no underlying asset, especially when trending sideways.


*(Tactical, time-bounded, in pursuit of some definite objective, with a pre-determined failure/stop-loss criterion.)

+1
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
April 28, 2013, 06:44:56 AM
Time to short :p
legendary
Activity: 1458
Merit: 1006
April 28, 2013, 06:37:24 AM

tl;dr -- following a trend has a better profit/risk ratio than manipulating a trend, on average.


In the fully general case, this is likely correct.

That is: Any fixed strategy to "control" or "manipulate" any market indefinitely will lose, on average, in the long term.

However: If this is the case, why does price manipulation need to be prohibited in mature markets?

I think we can find very good reasons to assume that manipulation events*,
(painting the tape, playing up volume, painting candles near hourly/daily close, decisively breaking resistances, and so on... )
can be very profitable, relative to risk, especially in an immature, unregulated market,
especially one with no intrinsic value, especially when trending sideways.


*(Tactical, time-bounded, in pursuit of some definite objective, with a pre-determined failure/stop-loss criterion.)
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
April 28, 2013, 05:58:26 AM
Triangle still here. Almost completed.

How about putting A where you have C?  Then the down move now would be B and C would be 200 or something?
"A" requires impulse 5-3-5-3-5 subcount. 5-3-5 there.
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