Yet another analyst :) - page 43. | Bitcointalksearch.org

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: arepo on April 28, 2013, 05:33:26 AM

Quote from: Bitsaurus on April 28, 2013, 04:39:38 AM

Quote from: farfiman on April 28, 2013, 04:35:33 AM

Quote from: smoothie on April 28, 2013, 04:18:08 AM

All this TA reminds me of voo doo and hocus pocus BS.

If you are here on the forum you ultimately are bullish on bitcoins unless you are working for the FED or other central bank.

I agree- true- the sentiments and psychology of people is the same as in any investment area BUT in this very small and not very wide spread market we can have a swing of 50% in one day due to a whim of a big investor ( or an early adopter ). So all the sophisticated TA is out the window.

No one person can predict crazy. And I know some of those early coin holders are probably not all right in the head.

this is a common misconception that has a game theory explanation.

take one assumption: barring 'crazy' actors, TA can accurately account for underlying trends in price data.

hypothesis: while some traders can be considered 'eccentric', direct manipulation is risky and can often incur loss, and a rational actor with a large sum will make 'TA-appropriate' moves (following from our assumption) to maximize gain.

tl;dr -- following a trend has a better profit/risk ratio than manipulating a trend, on average.

--arepo

You don't have to be "crazy" to make the giant swing in price happen. The market is so small that with a "not so big" investment one can do major things. Especially now when big money is starting to move towards bitcoin it is unpredictable what will happen. And the people that have ten's of thousands and up of coins ( early adopters) can do the same at a low cost. Maybe when we have millions trading world wide one will be able to use the TA more effectively.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: Bitsaurus on April 28, 2013, 04:39:38 AM

Quote from: farfiman on April 28, 2013, 04:35:33 AM

Quote from: smoothie on April 28, 2013, 04:18:08 AM

All this TA reminds me of voo doo and hocus pocus BS.

If you are here on the forum you ultimately are bullish on bitcoins unless you are working for the FED or other central bank.

I agree- true- the sentiments and psychology of people is the same as in any investment area BUT in this very small and not very wide spread market we can have a swing of 50% in one day due to a whim of a big investor ( or an early adopter ). So all the sophisticated TA is out the window.

No one person can predict crazy. And I know some of those early coin holders are probably not all right in the head.

this is a common misconception that has a game theory explanation.

take one assumption: barring 'crazy' actors, TA can accurately account for underlying trends in price data.

hypothesis: while some traders can be considered 'eccentric', direct manipulation is risky and can often incur loss, and a rational actor with a large sum will make 'TA-appropriate' moves (following from our assumption) to maximize gain.

tl;dr -- following a trend has a better profit/risk ratio than manipulating a trend, on average.

--arepo

Bitsaurus

hero member

Activity: 873

Merit: 1007

Quote from: farfiman on April 28, 2013, 04:35:33 AM

Quote from: smoothie on April 28, 2013, 04:18:08 AM

All this TA reminds me of voo doo and hocus pocus BS.

If you are here on the forum you ultimately are bullish on bitcoins unless you are working for the FED or other central bank.

I agree- true- the sentiments and psychology of people is the same as in any investment area BUT in this very small and not very wide spread market we can have a swing of 50% in one day due to a whim of a big investor ( or an early adopter ). So all the sophisticated TA is out the window.

No one person can predict crazy. And I know some of those early coin holders are probably not all right in the head.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: smoothie on April 28, 2013, 04:18:08 AM

All this TA reminds me of voo doo and hocus pocus BS.

If you are here on the forum you ultimately are bullish on bitcoins unless you are working for the FED or other central bank.

I agree- true- the sentiments and psychology of people is the same as in any investment area BUT in this very small and not very wide spread market. We can have a swing of 50% in one day due to a whim of a big investor ( or an early adopter ). So all the sophisticated TA is out the window.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

All this TA reminds me of voo doo and hocus pocus BS.

If you are here on the forum you ultimately are bullish on bitcoins unless you are working for the FED or other central bank.

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: Miz4r on April 28, 2013, 03:36:21 AM

Has Lucif even once predicted the price to go up? All I see is down down down from him, even when it went up later. How serious can we take this analysis if the support holds at $120 and we start moving up again soon?

When we passed 100 or so I think he finally gave up and bought. You can check out the posts a few dozen pages back. That lasted for at least, oh 2 days Roll Eyes

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Has Lucif even once predicted the price to go up? All I see is down down down from him, even when it went up later. How serious can we take this analysis if the support holds at $120 and we start moving up again soon?

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: lucif on April 28, 2013, 01:36:59 AM

Triangle still here. Almost completed.

How about putting A where you have C? Then the down move now would be B and C would be 200 or something?

lucif

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Clown prophet

Triangle still here. Almost completed.

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 02:19:45 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 27, 2013, 02:05:18 PM

Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.

i stand by the determination that this pattern isn't just a bubble. we were riding an incredibly strong rally, if everyone can just put their despair aside for a second. look at the timescales involved in the June '11 pattern -- we're way off track. this is something completely different.

not saying that it immediately follows that we should go up, but all this bubble talk is getting old as we've long broken that pattern. and it's not just "it's different this time", it's more "it doesn't even look like a bubble anymore".

we retraced 80% in about three days -- wtf was that? more like a massive market correction. i think the market is becoming more efficient. from what i gather, most of the weak hands were shook out already or else we wouldn't have made it to $160 in the first place.

--arepo

Indeed.

Greed is a hell of a drug though.

starsoccer9

legendary

Activity: 1630

Merit: 1000

just saying, yay 100 pages almost lol

siulynot

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 02:19:45 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 27, 2013, 02:05:18 PM

Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.

i stand by the determination that this pattern isn't just a bubble. we were riding an incredibly strong rally, if everyone can just put their despair aside for a second. look at the timescales involved in the June '11 pattern -- we're way off track. this is something completely different.

not saying that it immediately follows that we should go up, but all this bubble talk is getting old as we've long broken that pattern. and it's not just "it's different this time", it's more "it doesn't even look like a bubble anymore".

we retraced 80% in about three days -- wtf was that? more like a massive market correction. i think the market is becoming more efficient. from what i gather, most of the weak hands were shook out already or else we wouldn't have made it to $160 in the first place.

--arepo

I feel ya brothe... keep it up... you are strong. ;p

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 27, 2013, 02:05:18 PM

Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.

i stand by the determination that this pattern isn't just a bubble. we were riding an incredibly strong rally, if everyone can just put their despair aside for a second. look at the timescales involved in the June '11 pattern -- we're way off track. this is something completely different.

not saying that it immediately follows that we should go up, but all this bubble talk is getting old as we've long broken that pattern. and it's not just "it's different this time", it's more "it doesn't even look like a bubble anymore".

we retraced 80% in about three days -- wtf was that? more like a massive market correction. i think the market is becoming more efficient. from what i gather, most of the weak hands were shook out already or else we wouldn't have made it to $160 in the first place.

--arepo

ElectricMucus

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Activity: 1666

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: SAQ on April 27, 2013, 02:10:43 PM

All this is long term. What about short term, like today, this week, this month.

There are only 3 days left this month Cheesy

But the long term picture should be decided in the next 20 days or so I think.

SAQ

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

All this is long term. What about short term, like today, this week, this month.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 01:59:59 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 27, 2013, 01:50:34 PM

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 01:49:08 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 27, 2013, 01:37:32 PM

Anybody who realized just now this is really a bubble and 50 wasn't the bottom.

again, how can the bubble model account for the minibull to $160? nothing like this happened in June '11.

--arepo

The infamous anatomy of a bubble chart calls this Return to "normal"

i don't buy it.

looks more like 'final capitulation' to me, and a really bullish one at that. the market bottom is right now, and everyone's terrified on the sidelines. remember "bitcoin never crashes below its previous high?" that support at $120 is stronger than what's on the order book.

Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.

But I don't really care not that anybody accuses me of trying to talk the price down, for all I care we can go up past 266 and reach quadruple digits this year. But if that actually happens we are in for a even harder smackdown afterwards.

lucif

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Clown prophet