Yet another analyst :) - page 38. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Rampion

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Quote from: samson on May 05, 2013, 06:45:56 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on May 05, 2013, 06:41:40 PM

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

The current price is propped up by the 16,700 BTC bid 'wall' on $100, without that I'm pretty sure things would be very different right now.

ATM wall is at $110 and it's 22.67K coins - anyhow only aprox. 17K can be surely assumed to be from a single entity.

samson

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Quote from: Miz4r on May 05, 2013, 06:41:40 PM

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

The current price is propped up by the 16,700 BTC bid 'wall' on $100, without that I'm pretty sure things would be very different right now.

Frozenlock

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I think that these "news" really had less impact than what most think.

Miz4r

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Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

Rampion

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Quote from: smoothie on May 05, 2013, 04:55:15 PM

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

Man, if Smoothie is turning bearish is really time to get greedy and buy buy buy Wink

Seriously, I'd expect a decline to at least $70ish - I don't think we will break $50, and if we do it will be only for a few moments. Anyhow, I prepared myself for this situation, meaning that I'm prepared and eager to buy all the way down.

There is a huge difference compared to 2011, and its that now everybody knows that Bitcoin is here to stay, and the point is when we will have the next "bubble cycle". Thus, I expect the bottom to be much higher compared to 2011 standards, when a lot of people really turned their back on BTC.

Come on guys, we are all just speculating about how cheap we can get our coins - everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

Odalv

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Quote from: arepo on May 05, 2013, 04:59:52 PM

Quote from: smoothie on May 05, 2013, 04:55:15 PM

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.

$125 is next bottom

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: smoothie on May 05, 2013, 04:55:15 PM

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

lucif

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Clown prophet

IMHO, too little time has passed for last wave 5 off $0 low to begin. I think we entered multi-month correction/consolidation.

Sub-wave 3 ($15.40 -> $9.7) of super-wave 3 ($1.99 -> $260) was consolidated for 4 months.

And you expect that $260 high will consolidate in such quick way?

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: lucif on May 05, 2013, 07:14:47 AM

Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

i see the massive triangle consolidation pattern, but if you 'zoom out' it looks more like a bullish wedge. would you say an upwards breakout is possible?

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: lucif on May 05, 2013, 07:14:47 AM

Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

And because it shows correction from 50 low, the break will probably go down. 50 will be likely broken I think after few months.

with all these new chinese people getting into bitcoin...i disagree.

$50 was the bottom.

xorglub

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Ok, thanks for the explanation !

lucif

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Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

And because it shows correction from 50 low, the break will probably go down. 50 will be likely broken I think after few months.

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Quote from: elux on May 05, 2013, 06:41:42 AM

Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

Lucif "always" bets on red. Wink

Think it's in the name? Grin

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

Because it was created out of the plunge down. If it was on the way up, then reverse it. But I'm not sure these things are written in stone. Lots of manipulation going on for sure.

elux

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Quote from: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 06:38:39 AM

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

Lucif "always" bets on red. Wink

xorglub

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Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Lucif,

So, the symmetrical triangle breaks down in 1.5 or so weeks? Well, the problem with this type of forecasting, is that we are living in a world where currencies are collapsing, wars are in the wings, gold is being suppressed (paper naked shorts, "leasing" of reserves by Bullion banks,etc. ), and just a lot of uncertainty in general.

Now, I'm not saying you are wrong. But, the reason BTC is even where it is at is because of the global uncertainty. And yes, I use TA as well, but if we put too much reliance on it, then when news hits, BOOM - one way or the other. If another Cypress like event happens (and it will, just a matter of time, weeks, maybe months) then the price of BTC will break through past highs (which was probably driven by Cypress in large part).

Again, I'm not knocking the chart analysis, but just want to point out that anything longer than extremely short term predictions in this market is risky.

I almost feel like we need to have a strong hold of BTC that we just don't touch and then another "flexible hold" that we can try to trade with, with the intention of increasing.

But, I will keep an eye on that triangle! Thx,
IAS

lucif

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Clown prophet