Bets on direction?
I am for continuing EW count, since 4 of 5 off 9.77 low didn't technicially (it did stay 10 cents above) overlap 3 of 5, we still missing big leg up.
Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 84. (Read 269580 times)
Typical coiling picture before huge move.
Bets on direction? I am for continuing EW count, since 4 of 5 off 9.77 low didn't technicially (it did stay 10 cents above) overlap 3 of 5, we still missing big leg up.
Bets on direction?
I am for continuing EW count, since 4 of 5 off 9.77 low didn't technicially (it did stay 10 cents above) overlap 3 of 5, we still missing big leg up. 
Yeah, what are these huge 4 figure BTC bubbles?
I preserve the big bubbles are blocks?
wow. this deserves a donation.
I don't know that - I'll leave the price calls to Lucif and his charts . All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.
. All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.Bitcointalk is a very small minority of bitcoin holders. It's a big world out there.
Quote from: lebing link=topic=131065.msg1710139#msg1710139
I invested 80% of my savings almost a year ago ... Was that top behavior?
No. It takes a lot of people doing that together in a short span of time to make a bubble.
Also, the context is totally different. This is during a parabolic move, not in a lull following a previous crash.
in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.
Right because when everyone bought the google IPO because they knew it was an amazing company, it failed instead.
Did people sell their houses and put all the proceeds into google shares? I think you're misunderstanding the degree of conviction I'm conveying here that occurs in people's minds at major tops... i.e. contrarianism only works at the very extremes of psychology
I dont think anyone is selling a house they need to live in to buy bitcoins and then rent. I saw someone put up a house in canada that was a relatives, most likely as a marketing ploy and it sure as hell worked.
People are using it as a store of value, which is what it was designed for. This isnt "top behavior", its knowledge and corresponding logical action.
I invested 80% of my savings almost a year ago because I knew this rise would happen (just as I know for fundamental reasons it will continue). Was that top behavior?
in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.
Right because when everyone bought the google IPO because they knew it was an amazing company, it failed instead.
Did people sell their houses and put all the proceeds into google shares? I think you're misunderstanding the degree of conviction I'm conveying here that occurs in people's minds at major tops... i.e. contrarianism only works at the very extremes of psychology
The guy wants Bitcoins for the house he's selling. He isn't selling it for $ to exchange into BTC, he wants BTC. I don't see how it's any different than buying pizza with BTC.
in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.
Right because when everyone bought the google IPO because they knew it was an amazing company, it failed instead.
Did people sell their houses and put all the proceeds into google shares? I think you're misunderstanding the degree of conviction I'm conveying here that occurs in people's minds at major tops... i.e. contrarianism only works at the very extremes of psychology
in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.
Right because when everyone bought the google IPO because they knew it was an amazing company, it failed instead.
Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.
What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?
What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?
I don't know that - I'll leave the price calls to Lucif and his charts
. All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.Ah, I see. Alright then. At the moment everyone seems pretty confident we'll hit $100 in the next few days, and I hope they are right. I think I'll start phasing myself out at $102.
Almost salivating at buying back in at what I did in early february - $19.70
Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.
What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?
What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?
I don't know that - I'll leave the price calls to Lucif and his charts
. All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur. 1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
100% agreed. People are calling this "the singularity" even though bitcoin is having trouble with the volume at Satoshi Dice (and that's just one website). Now, Bitcoin still has value of course, but saying it's going to be the new world currency anytime soon is just ridiculous.
Other bubble signs include:
- people are selling their houses to buy bitcoin
- it's all over the news
- it's an "investment" now, not a currency like it has been for the past two years. The same change in attitude towards bitcoin occurred in the 2011 bubble
- People are cashing out their retirement accounts and going "all in"
- all this is happening coincident with another financial bubble in stocks and junk bonds. The mania psychology between multiple sets of markets is no coincidence - it's all part of human herding behavior. The last time bitcoin peaked was in july 2011, coincident with the last major selloff in stocks and also the high of the small caps/large caps ratio (a measure of speculative fever). This time, again, it followed the lead of the stock market and will likely peak around the same time.
Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.
Agreed here as well. According to Lucif's count, we have one more new high to come before the collapse.
Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.
What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?
1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
100% agreed. People are calling this "the singularity" even though bitcoin is having trouble with the volume at Satoshi Dice (and that's just one website). Now, Bitcoin still has value of course, but saying it's going to be the new world currency anytime soon is just ridiculous.
Other bubble signs include:
- people are selling their houses to buy bitcoin
- it's all over the news
- it's an "investment" now, not a currency like it has been for the past two years. The same change in attitude towards bitcoin occurred in the 2011 bubble
- People are cashing out their retirement accounts and going "all in"
- all this is happening coincident with another financial bubble in stocks and junk bonds. The mania psychology between multiple sets of markets is no coincidence - it's all part of human herding behavior. The last time bitcoin peaked was in july 2011, coincident with the last major selloff in stocks and also the high of the small caps/large caps ratio (a measure of speculative fever). This time, again, it followed the lead of the stock market and will likely peak around the same time.
Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.
Agreed here as well. According to Lucif's count, we have one more new high to come before the collapse.
I'm surprised it never actually made it to $100, with people as excited and irrationally bullish as they have been of late. Now I'm not sure if it will ever see $100 this year at all (it may, but it's questionable). It's just been kinda flat/dead lately with unusually low volume, which was not quite what I expected this week but does make sense.
It's Easter now, which is a massive (western) worldwide holiday. A lot of people travel or spend a lot of time with their families during Easter, and banks are on holiday as well.
If you look at bitcoincharts ( http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5ztgOzm1g10zm2g25zv ) you'll see that the action starts to quiet down on Good Friday, when people get do their last moves before going for a holiday, and then basically dies for the weekend with lower volumes than during normal weekends. There is no cash flowing in due to banks being closed and people are 'offline' due to being on vacation. As the exhanges are online, I am a bit surprised the price hasn't gone down, since people do have the chance of selling while new money is not available.
On monday the action will likely pick up a little bit, but it's still a western holiday so it'll probably be much quieter than a normal monday. Come tuesday, the game is back on. Even as us geeks spend loads of time online 24/7 and here in bitcointalk it's fun to look at how the coin is doing, it doesn't mean the rest of the world has got nothing better to do during holidays.
The lower volumes can be explained by the holidays, not by us being close to $100.
I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.
Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.
Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.
Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.
Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.
Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.
Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.
Yep, I made money, you made money, nearly all of us made money. That's a good thing. But knowing when to ring the register and take a profit is an extremely important aspect of being a successful trader... You know that old saying: "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is probably a duck"? ... even if we put technical analysis to the side and just use some simple, "old school" reasoning:
1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
If I walked away from Bitcoin at this point and never used it again I would be better for the experience. I'm not going to stop using Bitcoin, but the point is I have nothing to lose here. I can afford to miss out on a few %, and those few % are not worth the risk of losing many %... Risk is to the downside, not the upside.
Disagree as we may, I applaud you for expressing your opinion in an intelligent, civilized fashion (not joking). So +1 for smoothie.
--ATC--
If we all were able to call bubbles then we would all be rich now huh? Usually bubbles occur when you least expect it. Perhaps this could be the percieved value growth of bitcoins based on the many positive developments for bitcoin?
Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.
Moreso it seems that you making bearish calls shows you were hoping to buy in cheaper than you sold. Don't deny it that you wanted to make a % profit by selling and hoping to buy back cheaper. Same principle.
I somehow believe you will at some point buy back in higher.
As Cypher says "Sell High, Buy Higher"
I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.
Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.
Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.
Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.
Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.
Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.
Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.
Yep, I made money, you made money, nearly all of us made money. That's a good thing. But knowing when to ring the register and take a profit is an extremely important aspect of being a successful trader... You know that old saying: "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is probably a duck"? ... even if we put technical analysis to the side and just use some simple, "old school" reasoning:
1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...
If I walked away from Bitcoin at this point and never used it again I would be better for the experience. I'm not going to stop using Bitcoin, but the point is I have nothing to lose here. I can afford to miss out on a few %, and those few % are not worth the risk of losing many %... Risk is to the downside, not the upside.
Disagree as we may, I applaud you for expressing your opinion in an intelligent, civilized fashion (not joking). So +1 for smoothie.
--ATC--
It would be pretty arbitrary to censor them like that. If you want rules, fine. But at least make them public and transparent before you take their money.
When a company is guilty of material misrepresentation (no prototypes, missing deadline after deadline, etc), I'm pretty sure that's not really arbitrary. I'm sure there is a clause in the advertising agreement that BitcoinTalk.org can suspend or cancel a campaign at any time at their discretion. If not, they should. I think it would be wise to amend the agreement for future campaigns so as to curb potential scammers getting a nice run of orders from a major forum.Cool. We're way off topic now. If you really care, go make a topic in the meta sub forum.
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