Topic: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 256 blocks solved! - page 175. (Read 88143 times)

LOL, not even sure if this a serious "accusation" or just a "joke" I surely don't have the greatest sense of humor., however, if you carefully read my post and the one which I replied to, you will see that I dropped a bomb of possitvity and optimism and explained "in some detail" how solo mining chances are not all that bad compared to the lotto as opposed to what has been mentioned in the post I quoted.

With that being said, I am sure you are not a newbie just as sure as I am of that fact that I am nowhere near experienced, we all are here to learn (maybe except for the other person you compared me to ).

hey mikey,

i dunno what crawled up your ego and died to make you such a technical negative "karen",  but youve been a big ass debbie downer on simple solo mining questions asked here. you're starting to sound like another previous member who started their own mining site and only comes here to criticize the "not so experienced coder" members.   please take your negative criticism to more advanced areas of this forum.   we want simple stats, that say my puny 450Th will give me a
Chance per block: 1 in 376,480
Chance per day: 1 in 2,614
Time estimate: 7 years

 thats enough info for us noobies.
thank you kind sir
please take it down a notch on your expertise
 

Great  ! Powerball Tickets (PBTs) - one of the best comparisons I saw so far . So today roughly at 120 TH would make 120TH * 23 PBTs * 365days ~ 1Mio PBTs / year  

Thank you for that hint!

Well, you just did, I explained to you, the other members explained the matter in a different way but you still think that you are correct, it's sad that someone who registered here back in 2014 lacks a basic understanding of mining actually works, but if you feel good about yourself - it all that matters, numbers and law of physics are irrelevant.


Other than the obvious like your miner catching fire and all the stuff that you probably already know, there only risk is the power bill and the cost of the mining gear.


There are solid gears and some low-quality gears, you want to get the ones that can survive, not S9k, S9se, avoid the 17 series of bitmain altogether, just search the forum you'll find a lot of topics that discuss mining gears quality and robustness.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then!!

I did my own claculation for mining here:
It is hopeless with my amount of hashrate, lets try it anyway, because: who did not try, will never win. 

I did some rough calculations. it's a gambling, yes. taking into account risks and rewards, it is roughly 23 Powerball tickets a day per 1 TH/s.

You could win a block causing tax problems or people wanting money from you.

I toss some gear here just because I can. https://solo.ckpool.org/users/146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3

every once in a while I rent some hash but it is really hard to hit a block now due to high cost of coin.

Ie if you rent at a good fair price 1 coin would give you about a 1 in 6.25 chance

Asking to spend 35,000 USD for a 1 in 6 chance is hard.

First of all, thank you for the valuable information in that thread and of course, thank you for keeping the pool running !

I am new to crypto currencies and read into the topic for a couple weeks now. For some reasons, I decided to join the game, buy some mining hardware and gamble solo for a block. And yes, I clearly understand this as gambling.

However, it seems hard to find actual (recent) information on solo mining, particularly risks involved.

So my question is:

Assuming I join solo.ckpool.org for solo mining, what risks are still present *except*

- the money I spend in hardware (including breakage)
- the money I spend in power

?

Are there any?

Any tips are greatly appreciated. Thank you

True ...

Whatever the thoughts that come across, there is no sense in squabbling. I KNOW what works for me with the understanding I have, and so does everyone else.

To each their own and hopefully we can all pull through this together (hence the reason for a Pool in the first place). The system is based on what we can do to help one another, and I have had more than my share of help from everyone here, including some schooling

So for that I am thankful, and whether I explain myself clearly or not, it is not about squabbling, more that it is about sharing mindsets, trains of thought and hard evidence of what works for you - no matter what 'your setup' may be.

Now to get that damn theSolarFarm running in the next 12 months, and start slamming the hell out of the hashrate

#crysx

hey, don't argue here that much in this nice thread . it was only to explain to newbies that counting on hitting a block makes no sense nowadays

And this is why ...

This is why the system is misunderstood - because you think I am wrong on statistical probabilities that are fact, as well as ratios and mathematical facts that you think are incorrect.

All good though, the more you believe you are right, the more those like me seem to be benefittting from the manipulation of these statistical facts. Probability has feeling, so what you believe or feel is right or wrong is irrelevant. It's maths. The probability is based on EVERY block, on EVERY game, on EVERY hash. Whether we like it or not.

It makes no difference anyway guys, as the probabilities are not what we are all dealing with here. A block WILL be hit when the hashrate is there, that is coded into the system, whether 10minutes or so is also (almost) irrelevant, it WILL be hit - it actually HAS to be unless the chain is stopped with no hash driving it.

I don't need to argue these facts with you, look at the probabilities of Lotto for every games played, and the same goes for every block,

All good though. The misconception there is in the world, the better for those that can deal with the way it works.

#crysx
[/quote]



This will be my last post on that topic, because I already believe argueing is kind of senseless here. I didnt put any feeling or emotional expression into my reply. Please provide me the lines of code where the Certainty of solving a block is implemented (and I dont mean the Diff Adjustment based on the average blocktime).
Maybe the following analogy might help:
The probability for a standard dice to roll a 1 is 1/6. But that doesnt mean, that you get a 1 every 6 rolls. It is highly improbable but possible, that you roll a 1 six times in a row but the same is to say for not a single 1 in 30 tries.
Even if you roll 100 or 1000 times you're not guarenteed to get a 1 but the chances for that are ridiculously small, but it is still NOT CERTAIN!
The same goes for BTC Mining and the underlying SHA256 hashing. Although the "dice" here has 2 to the power of 256 sides which is for human beings an incredible huge solution space. Because it is that large there is no specific hash value demanded but every value that fulfills the defined criteria. Sticking to BTC being below a certain threshold that is adjusted every 2016 blocks and corresponds to enough leading zeros in the hashvalue of a solution.
But the principal stays the same, there's no guarentee of finding such solution in a finite timespan.

And this is why ...

This is why the system is misunderstood - because you think I am wrong on statistical probabilities that are fact, as well as ratios and mathematical facts that you think are incorrect.

All good though, the more you believe you are right, the more those like me seem to be benefittting from the manipulation of these statistical facts. Probability has feeling, so what you believe or feel is right or wrong is irrelevant. It's maths. The probability is based on EVERY block, on EVERY game, on EVERY hash. Whether we like it or not.

It makes no difference anyway guys, as the probabilities are not what we are all dealing with here. A block WILL be hit when the hashrate is there, that is coded into the system, whether 10minutes or so is also (almost) irrelevant, it WILL be hit - it actually HAS to be unless the chain is stopped with no hash driving it.

I don't need to argue these facts with you, look at the probabilities of Lotto for every games played, and the same goes for every block,

All good though. The misconception there is in the world, the better for those that can deal with the way it works.

#crysx

I do not agree on the "Absolute Certainty" Part. It is just an on-average-solution-timespan derived from the Poisson Distribution Probability. There were periods when the time between two blocks found were 3 hours for example.
If you want to calculate the true probability you need to consider every hash value and its chance of beeing below the current difficulty level. Lets go for the 70GH/s. Say the current Diff is 20T and for BTC the Diff Value when 1 corresponds to 8 leading hex numbers which means 2 to the power of 32 in binary. So roughly 4,3 billion hashs in decimal system necessary to find such a value on average. Multiplay this with 20.000 billion (20T) and you get the chance for each single hash calculated of beeing below that threshold. For such small possibilities you can simply sum them up, the deviation is negletable. But please consider this isnt possible anymore for "probable" events. If you would control the complete BTC Hashrate your Chance of finding a Block in 10 mins is around 63% and not 100% when you sum all hashs up (your machines would have calculated the above mentioned amount of hashs in that time) but as stated at the beginning the probabilty is a distribution. To achieve 100% your integral would need to be 1 and that means to integrate to infinity. Which is hard to achieve if we believe our state of the art science that the universe is finite in regard of its lifespan   

A 0.0055 play at nicehash could hit 1,2,3 even 4 blocks when played quickly at high hash rates

For instance I play 0.0055 btc at 50ph of hash for about 24 or 30 minutes.

so my shot at a single block is around

0.0055/6.25 or 1 in 1136 for that play

but with outstanding luck my shot at 2 blocks is 1136 x 1136 = 1,290,496 to 1.


and with god like luck my shot at 3 blocks is 1136 x 1136 x 1136= 1,466,003,456 to one.

Those numbers are at the start of the play.

As the rental dies out and no blocks are hit the odds worsen.

Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day.


No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth.



This is also wrong, first of all, it's not guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck.

Think about it this way, imagine that nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same.

It's a general misconception that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope.

https://solo.ckpool.org/users/146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3

Maybe I get lucky.

A Small play  0.0055 coins

Probability ...

1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.

1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.

Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it. However, with BTC, the chances are (like Lotto) that the more hashrate you have (the more Games in Lotto), the larger the chance of winning simply due to the amount of different plays. It is still the same probability with each hash/games played, but the chances (ie - risk of loss) are different.

This is why any form of gambling (especially trading - which is a complex form of gambling) have their risk. The difference is, that with Lotto, a games may NOT win, whereas with BTC (or almost any other Crypto) a block WILL be hit at certain interval.

So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty - EVER.

#crysx

I wish I could agree to that  , but unfortunately winning profitability isn't that simple, in his example, he showed how a 70GH gear has 1 in 14,000,000 chance a day, that chance of that very same miner per block would be 14,000,000*144 = 1 in 15,000,000,000, the chance per week would be 14,000,000 / 7= 1 in 2,000,000, the number of trails is irrelevant in this comparison IMO, it's a little bit more complicated than this, probability and statistics are as complicated as women are.

I would go a different calculation:
1 chance per ~10 min. or ~144 per day * 7 days = 1008 chances to win "~162500 €" at the moment
or in total 163800000 € and that has to be compared