z - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

niko

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 501

There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.

I made a quick-and-dirty plot showing the fraction of unspent coins (from Znort's data), Gox price (from bitcoincharts.com), and difficulty (roughly estimated from plots on bitcoin.sipa.be):

Several interpretations (some contradictory, some compatible with others) come to mind:

Early miners didn't care much about then-worthless coins, and many of early coins are lost
Early miners hoarded their coins as they didn't have to sell them to make up for the production cost; mining was dirt cheap (but so were the coins)
Miners generally hoard about 30% of their coins, however with the advent of pooled mining block rewards had to be spent first (even if earned fraction is then hoarded by individual miners) - and this shows as drop in hoarding
The nature of mining changed with the advent of SR: many newcomers set up mining operations specifically for SR purchases (freshly minted coins are significantly more anonymous then exchanged)

Any other thoughts?

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

Quote from: rjk on August 05, 2012, 02:46:44 PM

Quote from: bg002h on August 05, 2012, 02:41:17 PM

Quote from: rjk on August 05, 2012, 02:38:42 PM

Quote from: Etlase2 on August 05, 2012, 10:05:04 AM

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

Try again. The last reward reduction from 0.00000001 down to 0.00000000 is slated to be in about 100 years from now.

Ok, whose production effectively runs out in the creators lifetime...but let's not argue the trivial. Etlase2 is right.

Are you attempting to assume that the future value of 0.00000001 will be equal to or less than its current value? For all we know, in years 2108-2112 such a denomination could be worth quite a lot.

But then of course by then they could have invented lifespan-extending drugs or something. So what do I know.

1 Satoshi probably won't matter to someone who has 10^5 Bitcoins...but I doubt I'll live to see the day where a Satoshi actually could buy something common. I'd love to be wrong, but I think the math is on my side.

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: bg002h on August 05, 2012, 02:41:17 PM

Quote from: rjk on August 05, 2012, 02:38:42 PM

Quote from: Etlase2 on August 05, 2012, 10:05:04 AM

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

Try again. The last reward reduction from 0.00000001 down to 0.00000000 is slated to be in about 100 years from now.

Ok, whose production effectively runs out in the creators lifetime...but let's not argue the trivial. Etlase2 is right.

Are you attempting to assume that the future value of 0.00000001 will be equal to or less than its current value? For all we know, in years 2108-2112 such a denomination could be worth quite a lot.

But then of course by then they could have invented lifespan-extending drugs or something. So what do I know.

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

Quote from: rjk on August 05, 2012, 02:38:42 PM

Quote from: Etlase2 on August 05, 2012, 10:05:04 AM

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

Try again. The last reward reduction from 0.00000001 down to 0.00000000 is slated to be in about 100 years from now.

Ok, whose production effectively runs out in the creators lifetime...but let's not argue the trivial. Etlase2 is right.

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 02:37:49 PM

Quote from: bg002h on August 05, 2012, 02:30:51 PM

Quote from: doobadoo on August 05, 2012, 01:16:10 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 05, 2012, 12:44:07 PM

Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead. There is no other explanation. Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community. It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack. If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
?? - 2011

Interesting theory...did no one really know _anything_ about him? Surely someone knew something...if no one really knew anything, then I doubt he's dead...he was always planning to disappear.

Naw, he got Gavin to agree to take the lead before he left. I mean it is possible that he knew he was dying or something, but it's clear that he didn't just get hit by a bus one day.

Did he say why he was leaving? Glad the dude didn't (presumably) die suddenly.

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: Etlase2 on August 05, 2012, 10:05:04 AM

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

Try again. The last reward reduction from 0.00000001 down to 0.00000000 is slated to be in about 100 years from now.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

Quote from: bg002h on August 05, 2012, 02:30:51 PM

Quote from: doobadoo on August 05, 2012, 01:16:10 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 05, 2012, 12:44:07 PM

Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead. There is no other explanation. Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community. It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack. If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
?? - 2011

Interesting theory...did no one really know _anything_ about him? Surely someone knew something...if no one really knew anything, then I doubt he's dead...he was always planning to disappear.

Naw, he got Gavin to agree to take the lead before he left. I mean it is possible that he knew he was dying or something, but it's clear that he didn't just get hit by a bus one day.

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

Quote from: doobadoo on August 05, 2012, 01:16:10 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 05, 2012, 12:44:07 PM

Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead. There is no other explanation. Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community. It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack. If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
?? - 2011

Interesting theory...did no one really know _anything_ about him? Surely someone knew something...if no one really knew anything, then I doubt he's dead...he was always planning to disappear.

Drifter

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 252

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: doobadoo on August 05, 2012, 01:16:10 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 05, 2012, 12:44:07 PM

Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead. There is no other explanation. Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community. It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack. If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
?? - 2011

There is no way Satoshi was ever just one guy.

The scope, complexity and depth of the bitcoin design and
implementation goes way beyond anything a single person
could have pulled off.

According to Gavin, the primitive code was not neat or professionally put together, it just work, and it was obvious that Satoshi was no coder. Past him inventing the initial code, it was taken over by the current developers and I don't see why it's hard to believe one guy had the initial idea and implementation.

Satoshi likely left in fear of someone finding his identity. People seem to be able to locate his likely origin country by his vocabulary and how he types, though I can't remember which country it is believed to be. To my knowledge he didn't just vanish, he was in private conversations with Gavin. Once he was confident in Gavin taking over the development side of the project, and considering Gavin and/or others were likely better with the code anyway, there wasn't much left for Satoshi to do besides disappear into the background and watch his baby grow.

doobadoo

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: proudhon on August 05, 2012, 12:44:07 PM

Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead. There is no other explanation. Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community. It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack. If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
?? - 2011

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: weex on August 05, 2012, 03:07:30 AM

I would be curious to see the same age of unspent blocks data but from a 6 months ago perspective. A year as well. These might show us how recently the older coins first moved and how the recently unspent block percentage is changing.

I made a "coins not moved" graph last year (for a thread regarding the mystery miner: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.459385):

ThomasV (I guess) has made an interactive graph showing roughly the same (I guess) data (move mouse on chart):

http://ecdsa.org/stats.html

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

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Satoshi's a patient guy.

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

According to bitcoincharts...yes, 2 million coins could be sold:

Sell 2000000 BTC for 1987718.05 USD...or about a buck a piece.

bg002h

donator

Activity: 1466

Merit: 1048

I outlived my lifetime membership:)

Quote from: Etlase2 on August 05, 2012, 10:05:04 AM

Quote from: ThePok on August 05, 2012, 07:17:29 AM

The first Bitcoinusers did think of Bitcoin as an Prototyp. It was a Toy, they didnt save the coins, and i think Satoshi didnt save his first coins too.

In my opinion, at least 1 million coins from those 2 Million are lost.

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

I concur. I think people are waiting for the market to mature. I see it as a bullish sign. Why sell now if you can get more later? Could 2 MBTC be sold?

Etlase2

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ThePok on August 05, 2012, 07:17:29 AM

The first Bitcoinusers did think of Bitcoin as an Prototyp. It was a Toy, they didnt save the coins, and i think Satoshi didnt save his first coins too.

In my opinion, at least 1 million coins from those 2 Million are lost.

Smart enough to invent a new currency whose production runs out within the creator's lifetime, but too naive to think that they could ever be worth something? Unlikely.

n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Quote from: ThePok on August 05, 2012, 07:17:29 AM

The first Bitcoinusers did think of Bitcoin as an Prototyp. It was a Toy, they didnt save the coins, and i think Satoshi didnt save his first coins too.

In my opinion, at least 1 million coins from those 2 Million are lost.

50% is what I'd estimate as well.

But either way, even if you assume all 2 million are usable, the fact that they weren't sold on the run up to $30 or on the current 4-fold move from the last bottom, probably tells you that they are in strong (wise?) hands that are thinking very long-term, and which see Bitcoin as a store of value. If anything, a high number of slow-moving or non-moving coins is a very positive statistic, in that it validates that Bitcoin is behaving similarly to gold, with a stocks-to-flow ratio higher than just about anything else.

ThePok

full member

Activity: 131

Merit: 100

The first Bitcoinusers did think of Bitcoin as an Prototyp. It was a Toy, they didnt save the coins, and i think Satoshi didnt save his first coins too.

In my opinion, at least 1 million coins from those 2 Million are lost.

hazek

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1003

These never been spent coins are often on my mind and I wonder when if ever will they get spent. The potential to cause serious damages is huge if someone decided to foolishly dump all of them but I can't see someone doing that. I sometimes also speculate what the chance might be that the owners of these coins, mainly Satoshi, have deleted their private keys and actually on purpose lost the coins.

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

There is a thread where some folks enumerate their lost coins due to data loss or hdd formatting etc - maybe that would have insight into some of the blocks in this list.

wabber

member

Activity: 85

Merit: 10

Quote from: bracek on August 05, 2012, 03:48:08 AM

can you give some estimation for how many wallets or different keys these coins belong to

I mean,
can it be seen if those are in hands of a few owners or many ?

They are fresh coins. If they were all mined on fresh adresses (which is likely) it's impossible to link them together.

Topic: z - page 4. (Read 10179 times)