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Topic: : - page 9. (Read 70881 times)

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 23, 2011, 03:38:17 PM
What's the dependent axis represent?
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
October 23, 2011, 03:05:02 PM
How did you make this graph?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
October 22, 2011, 11:44:32 AM
I think that also depends on the health of the mining network. If continues to drop at this rate prices could be somewhat stable at these levels because the remaining miners would still be making profit. But that happening is also kind of unlikely since the rate of miner outflow has already begun to decline.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 21, 2011, 05:26:57 AM
You are essentially proposing a deletion experiment which should provide a pretty strong test of the predictions' impacts on price behavior: just keep track of prediction accuracy when publishing/not publishing.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)
October 21, 2011, 12:52:24 AM
It's not possible to have a model that accounts for it's own existence?
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
October 20, 2011, 11:44:39 PM
Haven't you noticed that at midnight, dozens if not hundreds of thread readers, after viewing your charts make your predictions come true? If you stop publishing snapshots, I predict your models will no longer hold. Smiley I suggest you publish more often. You'll be certain to profit from greater predictive power.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
October 20, 2011, 09:33:32 PM
OK, let me rephrase the question. What inputs resulted in a chart with higher price probabilities?
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
October 20, 2011, 08:55:27 PM
what changed in the trend?
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 19, 2011, 10:49:34 PM
Thanks, Chodpaba.   Modeling the retracement regions in a Bayesian framework would be interesting.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 19, 2011, 05:02:32 PM
Thanks for the graph and the explanations.  "Retracement" is a new concept for me, and I think it will take a little time for me to wrap my head around it.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
October 18, 2011, 11:12:11 PM
I believe this only highlights the age old debate regarding arithmetic vs geometric price axis. If you scale the prices logarithmically, the resistance and support will be more balanced. I believe that has always been true, but much less noticeable when your range was for example $4-$7. Now that it's $0-$6 it's quite obvious.

The midpoint is $3. Half ($1.5) and double ($6) have the same S/R levels.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
October 18, 2011, 09:38:07 PM
Expanding the independent axis to show where the real resistance starts would be interesting.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1076
October 18, 2011, 09:33:37 PM
Wednesday.

*image*
Testing the chart capabilities again, eh? The relative resistance looks like a flat line - though the time-series model says something different. This just shows what kind of market we're in.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1076
October 17, 2011, 08:27:10 PM
Tuesday.

*image*
This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). I don't think, however, that there is a 2% chance of the low being below $2.7 - this should be more like 50%.

If you want to judge a chart, you would need to know how to read it first, wouldn't you?
*facepalm*.
I know how to read these charts, I was just posting that really unconsiously. I changed my post to more useful information now.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
October 17, 2011, 08:25:19 PM
Tuesday.

*image*
This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). I don't think, however, that there is a 2% chance of the low being below $2.7 - this should be more like 50%.

If you want to judge a chart, you would need to know how to read it first, wouldn't you?

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1076
October 17, 2011, 08:20:19 PM
Tuesday.

*image*
This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). Is the time series matching these two times up by any chance?


The conditions seem just right for a recovery now, before a even more violent swing down to ~$1.5.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
October 17, 2011, 12:20:39 PM
Still liquid, balanced, and right-side-up. That was fun, but exhausting.

Did you manage that by following your indicators?  Or did you have to cut loose and just wing it sometimes?

I mostly fly by the seat of my pants.  But last night I was able to gain back some of my previous losses.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 16, 2011, 09:52:38 PM
What it means: if there actually *IS* someone preying on the weakness of BTC, tomorrow would be a good day to do some dumping.  I suspect there is no such entity, there's just *an* early adopter trying to cash out a few tens of thousand BTC.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)
October 16, 2011, 09:18:56 PM
Horizontal spans in the orange and blue lines means it is easier to slide the price in that range, and the more vertical the line is the less likely it is price will go in that direction?
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1076
October 16, 2011, 08:38:21 PM
Here is a peek at a broader view of the support/resistance chart. Things drop off a bit below $3.30 to find a stronger resistance level at around $2.00.

*image*
Does this mean that if the price continues dropping, it will drop nearly linearly until 0.2?
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