Do pay attention to those tails...
Yes, that happened.
Yes, that happened.
What do you mean? Bears turned back?
Topic: : - page 13. (Read 70881 times)
You can use the principles we have discussed in the thread to build your own system, and I encourage you to do so. But even so, I think the snapshot of the output I publish is still valuable, which is not a bad deal since it it free. But the live output is even more valuable...
I am currently trying to hone my skills with charts but have found your information very valuable. I try to guess at the 37.5% and 12.5% and have applied (1-prob)(spread) successfully, though I tend to hit only on the buy side or the sell side. None the less, I think I'm up a few coins since Friday. Are you taking donations?
according to http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ the volume of speculating is relatively small in the overall economy, smaller then the impression I had anyway
Can't always rely on thataccording to http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ the volume of speculating is relatively small in the overall economy, smaller then the impression I had anyway
Can't always rely on that according to http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ the volume of speculating is relatively small in the overall economy, smaller then the impression I had anyway
Yeah, the rest is depositing and withdrawl into exchanges, pool withdrawls, and gambling.
according to http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ the volume of speculating is relatively small in the overall economy, smaller then the impression I had anyway
>>Size, and volume, have everything to do with price stability. Volatility is also affected by market correlations.
That is true. The problem is the relative (high) volume of speculation vs the (small) bitcoin economy.
While I speculate that a total collapse is the most likely option, I could also see bitcoin end up as a small (and very stable) niche economy somewhere in the 0-$1 range - perhaps for people who use Silk Road or to meet some libertarian/techie niche.
That is true. The problem is the relative (high) volume of speculation vs the (small) bitcoin economy.
While I speculate that a total collapse is the most likely option, I could also see bitcoin end up as a small (and very stable) niche economy somewhere in the 0-$1 range - perhaps for people who use Silk Road or to meet some libertarian/techie niche.
Hi Chodpaba, you may not be able to nail specific prices at specific times, but you seem to have a very accurate picture of daily volatility. In another thread we are discussing how a merchant may set prices with such volatility. Merchants can peg prices to recent VWAP, add daily inflation rate (1.7% since June), but this offers no protection from wild swings (roughly one 40% + drop each month). Is there a hard and fast way to calculate the expected volatility today based on past performance? And how would that risk translate into price?
I have back burnered longer range projections for the time being after realizing the amount of calculation that is really needed increases exponentially with each day forward, and my shortcuts were not getting the results I wanted. It was simply a matter of diminishing returns. However, I ran a little projection going forward and for the short term all I can say is I see more of the same... Single digit prices with some peaks and dips, no big rally, no big crash, and plenty of volatility.
The best case scenario in my opinion is simply slow natural growth as trade is incrementally attracted to Bitcoin. As much as I would like to see a big rally it is probably not the best thing for this market. Holders can expect to hold for a long time, traders will be able to make a little, but this market is really made for the bots and I expect to see more bot action, including occasional strangeness resulting from them interacting with each other.
I am well aware of actually well reasoned arguments why Bitcoin would go to zero, but there is one basic flaw in that reasoning. It presumes that Bitcoin exchange should be modeled like exchanging shares of a stock, but it is not a stock and there is no rationale to expect it to behave as such.
But then there is always the wild card. Somebody that comes along and wants to do something big with Bitcoin. But then Bitcoin is not a very big market, if they want to do something big it will mean buying a lot of coins, because tens of millions doesn't participate very well in an economy that has billions sloshing around in it.
If you want that to happen then play nice with each other... But watch out for those that would burn it all down.
+1The best case scenario in my opinion is simply slow natural growth as trade is incrementally attracted to Bitcoin. As much as I would like to see a big rally it is probably not the best thing for this market. Holders can expect to hold for a long time, traders will be able to make a little, but this market is really made for the bots and I expect to see more bot action, including occasional strangeness resulting from them interacting with each other.
I am well aware of actually well reasoned arguments why Bitcoin would go to zero, but there is one basic flaw in that reasoning. It presumes that Bitcoin exchange should be modeled like exchanging shares of a stock, but it is not a stock and there is no rationale to expect it to behave as such.
But then there is always the wild card. Somebody that comes along and wants to do something big with Bitcoin. But then Bitcoin is not a very big market, if they want to do something big it will mean buying a lot of coins, because tens of millions doesn't participate very well in an economy that has billions sloshing around in it.
If you want that to happen then play nice with each other... But watch out for those that would burn it all down.
This is exactly what I was talking about when I speculated on the possibility of a drop-stabilize-stable scenario. Meaning that we trade within a certain range for a long time, at least long in the Bitcoin-world. There will be high volatility within that range but still, it'll be very stable compared to what we've had in the recent months.
The slow natural growth scenario is possible but I think that when the time comes for big news and increased interest, we will see another bubble. That spark will attract speculators and investors to buy again, which multiplies the effect. But until a spark large enough happens we will probably be stuck in a relatively stable scenario which is hopefully fueled by slow natural growth.
Even if a big rally isn't the best thing for the market, that is very likely as long as the size of the market is so small. But it does require a significant spark to happen first, not enough people will commit otherwise.
I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.
Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.
Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.
See that's why Bitcoin will be $0 very soon. October 6th, by my predictions:
If you hold out until Oct 28th, I estimate you'll actually be paid $4 for every bitcoin you buy.
that was my point. 
...at least what I meant to distinguish. (Jixtreme I thought you were trolling and didn't see until Xjosx that the laugh was on me. Good show!)
...at least what I meant to distinguish. (Jixtreme I thought you were trolling and didn't see until Xjosx that the laugh was on me. Good show!)I knew you got it, I was trollin' the trolls
I thought the "paid to buy Bitcoins" part would give me away!
I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.
Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.
Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.
Same absolute change, different relative change. One represents a 25% drop in value, the other a 2.5% drop in value.
I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.
Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.
Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.
See that's why Bitcoin will be $0 very soon. October 6th, by my predictions:
If you hold out until Oct 28th, I estimate you'll actually be paid $4 for every bitcoin you buy.
klaus, can you explain to me how Bitcoin can have a stable exchange rate with a market capitalization measured in the tens of millions? There can be no hope for stability at these price levels as I see it. If you want a stable Bitcoin it will need some critical mass—a billion dollar market... So, any way you slice it usability comes first, stability comes later. A bit of a chicken-and-egg problem right there.
Any attempt at artificially stabilizing the Bitcoin exchange rate at these levels is bound to be unsustainable, because it will ultimately result in a lower exchange rate, keeping the market small, and making it prone to manipulation as those controls inevitably fail.
every word you say is true !
when market capitalization is x 20 or x 50 from now its stable enough to absorb a 100.000 US$ trade (whatever direction) without big move.
the only answer is a lot of time and meanwhile slow growth to get there. chicken-and-egg problem. only rally brings new investors with new money. but if that rally is to strong it will end like the june rally.
Jump to: