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tvbcof
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
Re: :
November 14, 2011, 06:47:41 PM
#414
Quote from: tvbcof on November 08, 2011, 09:32:12 PM
Quote from: netrin on November 08, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.
...

I've seen it happen but it was some time ago IIRC.  And it was not really enough to cover the 1% exchange fees plus whatever fees are associated with transferring a lot of money (if one needed to do that.)  But I think that the best way to arbitrage would probably include some amount of picking off spikes and dips anyway.

...


Just a heads-up/reminder for anyone interested in arbitrage.

Good (and unusual) opportunities to move funds the easy way with Tradehill holding notably above Mt. Gox for reasonable periods of time of late.  Probably only a handful of relatively smaller players could do it though such is the depth at Tradehill.

StewartJ
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Re: :
November 14, 2011, 05:16:08 PM
#413
Based on the hourly movements today, we should be trading in the $2 range within 2-4 hours.

Perhaps?

SJ
StewartJ
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Re: :
November 14, 2011, 04:50:12 PM
#412
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: dree12 on November 14, 2011, 03:45:59 PM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Update.

*update*
Looks like these charts are changing again. Is today one of the most active days in your record?

It is, and it is behaving just as I would expect for a record volume day.

Where is the support and resistance today?  I see a stair-step drop-down on value on Gox Trading. 

Are we heading for the proverbial $1 btc ?

Thanks for your insights,
SJ
dree12
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Re: :
November 14, 2011, 03:45:59 PM
#411
Quote from: ?? on ??
Update.

*update*
Looks like these charts are changing again. Is today one of the most active days in your record?
dree12
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 08:32:22 PM
#410
Quote from: ?? on ??
How about this?

*image*
Is this after the november 13 instant crash?
ElectricMucus
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 06:47:02 PM
#409
Quote from: BTCurious on November 13, 2011, 06:44:25 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on November 13, 2011, 06:32:40 PM
Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink
You sure you don't just want one from 2 to 4 or something?
That also Wink
BTCurious
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 06:44:25 PM
#408
Quote from: ElectricMucus on November 13, 2011, 06:32:40 PM
Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink
You sure you don't just want one from 2 to 4 or something?
ElectricMucus
legendary
Activity: 1666
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Marketing manager - GO MP
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 06:32:40 PM
#407
Nice, oh btw:

Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink
dree12
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 10:19:42 AM
#406
Quote from: TiagoTiago on November 13, 2011, 03:53:26 AM
Quote from: ?? on ??
Ok, to satisfy your curiosity here is the support/resistance chart with price on a log scale.

*image*
Would it look less or more distorted if the vertical axis was log too?
More distorted because the units are relative S/R. That is to say, the difficulty of change between 10 and 9 is equal to 1 and 0. The graph itself is actually a cumalative display if I'm not mistaken.
RyNinDaCleM
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 09:45:34 AM
#405
Quote from: ?? on ??
Whadayaknow... TH is pulling 20% of Gox volume. If they keep this up I might have to give them another look.

They need to accept Dwolla again. Then I would have no problem using them.
TiagoTiago
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)
Re: :
November 13, 2011, 03:53:26 AM
#404
Quote from: ?? on ??
Ok, to satisfy your curiosity here is the support/resistance chart with price on a log scale.


Would it look less or more distorted if the vertical axis was log too?
btc_artist
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 102
Bitcoin!
Re: :
November 09, 2011, 11:43:43 AM
#403
Tradehill and MtGox are not the only exchanges out there.
ElectricMucus
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Re: :
November 09, 2011, 11:30:42 AM
#402
You don't have to max out your leverage, and imo something between 1.5 and 2.5 compensates for the faster ROI of scalping enough. (Unless you are really really good at it I guess...  Wink )
gewure
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
[#][#][#]
Re: :
November 09, 2011, 11:23:01 AM
#401
Quote from: ?? on ??
Quote from: ElectricMucus on November 09, 2011, 10:53:56 AM
Well there is always bitcoinica  Roll Eyes

I don't have all that much confidence in Gox. Much less something that is leveraged off of them.

There is such a thing as systemic risk. Until the exchanges can demonstrate a grown-up level of stability I won't be willing to risk much.

i don't know in what amounts you guys want to trade - but all the time it sounds to me, as if you need several thousands in volume, hourly.

at the moment i trade with 30 BTC and leverage them on bitcoinica. so the systemic risk is pretty meaningless to me. although if you want to trade with 1000+ BTC then i would probably also be sceptical.

starting small can't be a damage, can it?
ElectricMucus
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Re: :
November 09, 2011, 10:53:56 AM
#400
Well there is always bitcoinica  Roll Eyes
netrin
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
Re: :
November 08, 2011, 09:39:44 PM
#399
I've just suggested again that TradeHill accept Mt. Gox redeemable codes. Perhaps all y'all arbitragers could do the same.

I've found that codes very useful trading between Bitcoinica and Mt. Gox (usd codes are much faster than btc p2p). Mt. Gox in the morning, Bitcoinica while I sleep, in theory anyway.

@2112 perhaps you are failing to make yourself understood. If I can see a 10% price difference between exchanges, then I'll buy cheap, transfer coins and sell high. Should the cicumstances reverse, I'll do the same. I have no need to re-balance if not profitable. Is it the re-balancing to which you object?
2112
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1073
Re: :
November 08, 2011, 09:36:15 PM
#398
Quote from: netrin on November 08, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.

@2112: I don't understand your critique. I just made a small profit via TH buy-->Mtgox sell (thanks Chod). I wish I could repeat, as I'm now illiquid on TH, but happy none the less.
But do you understand why a perpetuum mobile cannot keep moving forever?

I'm kinda stumped. This joke here is too much for me to comprehend.
tvbcof
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
Re: :
November 08, 2011, 09:32:12 PM
#397
Quote from: netrin on November 08, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.
...

I've seen it happen but it was some time ago IIRC.  And it was not really enough to cover the 1% exchange fees plus whatever fees are associated with transferring a lot of money (if one needed to do that.)  But I think that the best way to arbitrage would probably include some amount of picking off spikes and dips anyway.

From time to time I think that outlier picking off could be effective even in one exchange (specifically Tradehill where the volumes are lower and the outliers are higher), but these opportunities seem to come and go (as people learn from their fat-finger mistakes or whatever.)  I was writing something to play that game, but got interested in other things and keep thinking that others are going to be writing the same thing (but better.)
netrin
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
Re: :
November 08, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
#396
Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.

@2112: I don't understand your critique. I just made a small profit via TH buy-->Mtgox sell (thanks Chod). I wish I could repeat, as I'm now illiquid on TH, but happy none the less.
2112
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1073
Re: :
November 08, 2011, 09:04:48 PM
#395
Quote from: ?? on ??
No. Because there will be times when Gox is above TH, and times when Gox is below TH. You do the transfers when it is profitable for you to do so. If your balances go too far the wrong way then you might have to eat a fee on a Dollar transfer in order not to let one account go illiquid.

If you can not do this it reveals that something is lacking in your money management strategy and you are better off not attempting arbitrage between the exchanges. If it were easy, everyone would do it...
It seems to me like you are describing a sure way to lose.

Arbitraging in general is taking advantage of too-much inter-exchange friction in one asset class (BTC) by exploiting less friction in another asset class (USD). Arbitraging doesn't assume that one can guess in advance the profitable distribution of the portfolio between the exchanges.

I've found your proposal of arbitraging BTC/USD price differentials by doing BTC transfers between the exchanges hilarious joke. But you seem to write in all seriousness. I really don't know what to think about it anymore. Was this supposed to be a multi-level satire?

I made a full quote above in the attempt to discourage ex-post-facto editing.
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