: - page 12. | Bitcointalksearch.org

NamelessOne

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Quote from: proudhon on September 24, 2011, 12:21:31 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 24, 2011, 04:02:56 AM

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

My hunch is that the next rally phase is going to leave as many bodies in its wake as the decline from the $32 high has - many people who are out BTC and into cash aren't going to be able to jump back on quick enough and will end up taking a big hit to their BTC position.

A rally of that power would be enjoyable. The change in the trend and general T.A. makes this a possibility. I hope your hunch becomes reality.

proudhon

legendary

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Quote from: S3052 on September 24, 2011, 04:02:56 AM

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

My hunch is that the next rally phase is going to leave as many bodies in its wake as the decline from the $32 high has - many people who are out BTC and into cash aren't going to be able to jump back on quick enough and will end up taking a big hit to their BTC position.

Bigpiggy01

hero member

Activity: 1138

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Quote

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

+1 Agreed, I'm fully expecting this "slow rally" to pick up again Sunday-Monday possibly during Saturday US time as well Grin

S3052

legendary

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Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

Flappy

member

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This is one of those "sometimes a day is not a day" - long days.
Friday's box plot remains valid until the price moves eh?
Although the longer the price stays in one place, the more it will gravitate back to that price after a move. Or the opposite could happen. The price starts to move, and lots of people jump on board.

Today's activity seems odd to me - with so much volume and so little price movement. A large trade nested in otherwise low volume.

Ideally we would see more vendors accepting Bitcoin, and the price would respond in small incremental steps as demand increases. I still doubt Bitcoin will ever appeal to the mainstream. But even if it gains moderate success as a currency and is used in isolated web communities, or even physical locales around the globe, that could be enough to drive the price up significantly.

fivebells

sr. member

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Fair enough, it bears explaining...

Thank you.

Minsc

full member

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Well it sure as heck bounced off $5.30, the question is if there is enough volume to push (back) through that little bump at $5.60.

I couldn't tell if 5.30 was the bottom or not at the time. It just sort of stagnated and only went up about 5 cents and the 10 cent was only sporadic stuff hard to get except with a sellwall and one can't make more than a tiny sellwall there or risk pushing it down. The 5.50 bump is some manipulator and they aren't pushing it higher so far.

Minsc

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It is only a good buy in point if it is a good price point for you. That is a very individualized decision based on your market positions and it does not make sense to generalize the market in that way.

To me it's when it drops a lot and finally hits bottom and will go back up.

Minsc

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Minsc on September 22, 2011, 01:20:50 PM

So how much will it fall this end of the week? I'm hoping The Manipulator is nice enough to drop it to $3.

I think that general uncertainty in the markets (as a whole, not just Bitcoin) is keeping volume down. It won't move much unless this changes. Perhaps "The Manipulator" will decide for us. [/snark]

But I think we could test $5.11 again without too much trouble.

Considering, the low end was 5.30 yesterday and 5.10 was the best buy in point yesterday, I'm just pondering if 4.90 would be a good time to buy in point based on the same logic or if it's better to wait to 4.60 for a possible drop on Friday.

Everyone who went all in above $6 two days ago has been dumping their overpriced coins yesterday and today.

Minsc

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So how much will it fall this end of the week? I'm hoping The Manipulator is nice enough to drop it to $3.

ineededausername

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bitcoin hundred-aire

Yay, pretty low resistance all the way to $6... time for a rebound. Stupid manipulator.

TiagoTiago

hero member

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Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

So the lower the step the more likely it is the price will reach that value?

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

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Probably explained somewhere in this long thread, but I don't have time to search: what do the staircases to the left and right mean?

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

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FirstBits: 168Bc

Quote from: ?? on ??

-Space orders out through the entire probability range:...
-Weight orders by both the spread, and the probability they will be filled:...
-Place orders far enough apart to be profitable:...

-Use no more than half your reserve for any set of orders:
This helps to ensure you remain liquid. And helps to prevent having to place unprofitable orders in order to rebalance. If you have less tolerance for risk you may want to keep a higher percentage in reserve.

I've thought much about this last point, particularly now after I'd gone 'all in' above $6 and the price action is now bouncing between $5.6 and $6. At the end of any trading day, I understand it's good practice to close all positions and remain in the 'safe' currency. Before June, that currency was BTC. Long afterwards (I'm a slow learner) that safety was USD (and JPY).

Let's assume I've got 90% reserves (not true, but we're also assuming I'm a responsible trader). Of that, if I'm trying to close with 50% USD and 50% BTC, then my bids will not in most cases match my asks, even if perfectly predicted, so it seems that I can't profit off the spreads. This would be fine only if we could erroneously assume the price will just bounce around a fixed midpoint forever. Perhaps one has to project the long term trend and bounce around that. Suppose you have a big order at the 2%, how do you then recover from break outs?

netrin

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FirstBits: 168Bc

Quote from: Jixtreme on September 21, 2011, 09:06:47 AM

physics persuasion.. chart.. ball .. valley .. support/resistance .. "topography" .. Trade volume .. kinetic energy .. back and forth .. box-plots.. probability. afterall, I endorse Log-scale charts, which, apparently, makes me a lunatic around here. Wink

I think everyone here is a lunatic. We're in good company.

The grey box is also nice. Perhaps if we beggars can be choosers, we'd have a (busy) curve above symbolising the previous day's volume weighted movement, the local maximas and minimas, or just the rotated graph mtgoxlive.com style.

BadBear

legendary

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Quote from: Jixtreme on September 21, 2011, 09:36:09 AM

Quote from: gibson042 on September 21, 2011, 09:30:51 AM

Same here, on both counts. What would you think of something like this?

I was thinking just a little marker on the axis at the high and low point would suffice. Wink

The gray, to me, still implies that it's related to today's movement.

Well it is related. I like the grey outline much better, it should be a foreground thought instead of a big green line drawing your attention. However, it is still nice to see the ranges, in a relative way, especially with the huge ups and downs it can see in a day. Little marks would suffice as well I suppose, be easier to decide if you would make one up real quick. Maybe use little bitcoins? Cheesy

Jixtreme

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Quote from: gibson042 on September 21, 2011, 09:30:51 AM

Same here, on both counts. What would you think of something like this?

I was thinking just a little marker on the axis at the high and low point would suffice. Wink

The gray, to me, still implies that it's related to today's movement.

gibson042

newbie

Activity: 23

Merit: 0

Quote from: Jixtreme on September 21, 2011, 09:06:47 AM

Mr. Chodpaba, I gotta say, I continue to love your work.

If I could very humbly give you some feedback on the appearance of the chart: I frequently get thrown off by the THICK green bars representing yesterday's price.

Same here, on both counts. What would you think of something like this?

http://i.imgur.com/3H5Lf.png

Jixtreme

full member

Activity: 121

Merit: 100

Mr. Chodpaba, I gotta say, I continue to love your work.

If I could very humbly give you some feedback on the appearance of the chart: I frequently get thrown off by the THICK green bars representing yesterday's price.

Being from the physics persuasion, I see this chart as a ball stuck in a valley. Using past support/resistance, you estimate the "topography" of the valley. Trade volume, then, is kinetic energy, pushing the ball back and forth. The box-plots are, unsuprisingly, the probability that the "ball" will arrive at a given price... but then... there are those heavy green bars, which look to me as potential energy walls - barriers - when, really, they are just markers. Others might not have as much trouble as I do... afterall, I endorse Log-scale charts, which, apparently, makes me a lunatic around here. Wink

Again, I love the charts! Keep it up!

-Jix

zapeta

full member

Activity: 180

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: maxll on September 20, 2011, 12:16:37 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Do pay attention to those tails...

Yes, that happened.

What do you mean? Bears turned back?

I am referring to the current chart, we hit the high tail. The case I am trying to make is that a good way to balance risk/return is to place orders throughout the probability distribution.

Yeah, I've got buy orders through the low part of the distribution...doesn't look like we're going to get there today.

Topic: : - page 12. (Read 70881 times)