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Not all long-term investors use this strategy. What you have described is essentially long-term trading, speculation on very long timeframes. If all investors followed this tactic, then we would see millions of bitcoins move during ATH in order to sell them, but this does not happen, because many long-term investors do not hold bitcoins in order to speculate with them at each new ATH. Sometimes they hold them in order to preserve the value of their assets in the long run, which Bitcoin does better than other assets.

You should not expect any properties of a safe haven from bitcoin, because it is, firstly, a risky and speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency, including bitcoin, will always be the asset that will be disposed of in the first place in case of some economic and geopolitical upheavals. Therefore, Bitcoin should be considered as a store of value only on long-term timeframes. In the short or medium term, bitcoin is rather unprofitable for its investors, because it can easily lose 30-50% of its value in just one day, or 75% of its value in a year.

Technical analysis is just a prediction, not a law, which is why I call people like Plan B charlatans. It is impossible to determine and force the price to move as it is shown on some chart. It doesn't work like that. As a long-term indicator, we can only consider the fundamental properties of bitcoin and historical data, but not technical analysis or any indicators on the chart. An S2F model is just someone's prediction that try to pass off as a working pattern. S2F has repeatedly shown that it does not work.

This is obvious because price growth slows down over time. Bitcoin cannot grow at the same rate because the price of the asset requires more and more funds to be raised. Therefore, the difference between the past ATH and the next one will shrink. It's unavoidable. In 2017, ATH was $20,000; in 2021, ATH was $69,000. The difference is x3.5. The next ATH is unlikely to be around $200,000.

Some people are surprised that in 2022, Bitcoin broke the previous ATH, because before that it had never done so. In fact, this was also expected, because bitcoin is slowing in growth, but everything can also lose 75-85% of its value in bearish cycles. I assume that in the future we may be witnesses. how bitcoin will fall below the past 2 ath.

every bitcoin expert had said it has died a thousand times before and already, so another death won't do anything to it anymore, furthermore I would agree, bitcoin has its cycles primarily caused by market trends and the fact that it halves its circulating supply every couple of years. This has been the case for a long time with bitcoin and will remain to be the case until a paradigm shift occurs within its systems and status quo. Critics will continue and will repeat it every time, saying bitcoin is dead every time the bear market ensues but at the end of the day, when the skies of the market clear up and assets pick their paces up once more, bitcoin will exponentially rise in relevance and value once again.

It is right that long term investors don't sell their Bitcoins even  during the bull run when it makes ATH and we see double & triple tops on technical charts but they don't get tempted and continue holding their Bitcoins because they believe that due to rising inflation every class of asset will depreciate in the long term but Bitcoin is deflationary by its nature so it is the best hedge against all assets.

I think long term investors who strongly believe in Bitcoin, will not sell their Bitcoin even at what they guess is the peak of Bull cycle, (because there is no way to correctly predict top & bottom of Bitcoin), rather they will find some way to stake them & generate passive income on their Bitcoin holding.

Taking buy & sell decisions based on technical signals is not a bad strategy but its accuracy is always doubtful. Though technical charts give some hints to identify top & bottom of Bitcoin but it is like forecasting weather, you may not be absolutely right.

People frequently say that, and it is usually not true... Why don't you look at bitcoin's history?

And, yeah sure what you are saying could happen.

And yeah history is not exactly something that we can rely upon.. .. but what you are suggesting does not seem to be a very likely scenario, even though you are describing it as if it were a "given" or a likely scenario.. .. you even used the words "more likely"... yeah right.. 


You can treat your crossings of the previous ATH however you like.

A lot of folks have been burned pretty badly when they had played those kinds of games, and some of those folks who sell too much too early end up becoming bitter no coiners who haunt the forum threads for years with their whining how the BTC price is going to go down, and the price does not end up going down in the timeline that they would either be able to recover or it never ends up going below the price that they had sold more than they should have.


There are a lot of ways to deal with anticipated cycles and to hedge in regards to anticipated (and likely inevitable BTC volatility - without knowing volatility direction) without playing around and gambling that the BTC price will go down and then it does not end up going down.



I would not fuck around with that kind of gambling.

Sure maybe if you had 1 BTC, then maybe you could have sold 0.5 BTC or 0.33 BTC.. or take some kindc of a reasonable hedge.. but you are likely going to end up screwing yourself if you believe that you can come even close to being able to time tops and bottoms... a lot of reckt folks who had previously tried those strategies and got their asses handed to them.

But, hey.. you do you.

You can do whatever you like... it's your money... your strategy and your psychology.. but don't be trying to tell us that you know what the BTC price is going to do, when you likely are mostly guessing and playing probabilities, just like a lot of other guys here, and sure maybe you might be more right than others, but I would be careful in terms of betting too much on those kinds of strategies.. especially when there are likely better strategies that do not involve so much playing around, gambling etc etc..   Are you interested in the better strategies, or do you think you got it all figured out in terms of your abilities to time future tops and bottoms?  By the way.. it is easy-peasy to time past tops and bottoms.. a bit more challenging to even come close in terms of timing future tops and bottoms.. while at the same time, there are prudent and reasonable strategies that guys/gals/institutions/governments can employ to better manage their BTC portfolios rather than fucking around with trying to trade this asset, aka king daddy.

Long-term investors are more likely to dump their bitcoin when a new ATH is reached and will re-enter the market for another cycle after a dip. I see it as something more doable than having to hold the same amount of bitcoin for years and ignoring them from conversion while at ATH.

If indeed they believe these bitcoins are cyclical then they should be able to sell on a profitable cycle and reinvest on the next cycle allowing them to make more bitcoin than the previous conversion. I mean someone who sold their 1 bitcoin for $60K last year will probably be able to buy 3 more bitcoin this year after the 75% drop in price.

You are right that technical analysis is just a prediction and it doesn't necessarily go right all the time. Many analysts on social media are predicting that Bitcoin will be above $200K after next halving, I fail to understand, how it is possible when Bitcoin adoption is very slow, Salvador tried to adapt it as currency of payment to buy goods and services  but it didn't work out. I am also disappointed with performance of Bitcoin during economic crisis, it correlated with stock market in stead of Gold while both (Bitcoin & gold )are considered stores of value.

Bitcoin price Cycle in different years

2009-2010


2011


2012


2013


2014-2016


2017


2018-2019


2020


2021-2022 present


Totally bitcoin market a complicated cycle...

I don't care 🐻 Bearish market... many experts pridicted bitcoin would hit more than $200000 ... Only hold ! Hold!! Hold!!!

I was also one of  those who were surprised to see Bitcoin falling below its previous ATH because I used to believe that history always repeats itself, what happened in the past, same thing will happen now as typically human psychology never changes and this is what theory of technical analysis is based upon. What I learned from unpleasant events of 2022 that technical analysis only indicate probability to some extent but not certainty of what may happen next and it is more important to keep an eye on fundamentals.

One thing which changes with this cyclic bitcoin movement is that the bitcoin prices movement in the bull market will not give 5x-8x returns in the coming years. This means that in the next bull run we might see only a 2x price increase from the previous bull market high of 68,000$. I would see bitcoin anywhere near 120,000$ to 140,000$ in the next cycle.

However, if we see the current price of bitcoin near 16500$, this would be another 5x to 7x return and this is not bad in my opinion.

Many new people who entered the market in 2021, may not believe that bitcoin may reach to all-time high again but people who saw the 2017 bull run are well aware that this is the best time to take their positions for the next bull market.

Bitcoin is not like that we can still expect something to recover as long as it doesn't sell it in a bearish time and lasts for a long time I only believe in bitcoin and not with other coins.
Yes, the potential for bitcoin can still be expected with long-term trends because we believe in a 4-year cycle where bitcoin will return to its highest price, so there's no need to worry, basically we will be at the peak of the price again.

We always imagine a tendency for big profits, for example, if we invest 10k in this shadow, it will definitely be big, although we cannot determine how big the profits will be in the future, for sure if you hold on longer it will be even more valuable at a very high value .

Problem is with their impression. Many people were heard to become rich because of this technology as investments or assets but many non-crypto users are not aware of how hard it is to generate profit. Years of studying graphs if you're planning of trading. Years of research if you're into project investments. It took years for those individuals who became successful in this industry. There will never be an easy profit. Risks will always be involved and if you are an investor who cannot endure losing your 'one last shot' of money to invest then you're not ready yet. An individual must have a ready to lose money if you want to earn profit from investing not only in this technology, but in general field of investment ofcourse.

Investing in Bitcoin is not supposed to be a compulsory thing that is why people make mistakes and use borrowed funds to invest and the later time they will start complaining about not making profits. To invest in Bitcoin, there must be a vast understanding on how the market works which is the reason why newbies that do not understand the market will keep making mistakes of taking the wrong steps or movement in the crypto market. The market is volatile with vast movement which could lead to loses or profits depending on how we make decisions about the marketm

I greatly agree, a dump followed by pump can be a bull trap that where a pump is followed by another dump. We have seen this kind of strategy a lot, just like what happen recently where the price of Bitcoin slightly recovers but got dump when the FTX fiasco happen, then the price even go lower than its previous bottom.


True, but it doesn't hurt to DCA every time a new bottom is recorded as long as the money used is something that they can afford to lose.


Make sense, every little effort if collected is way better than a single huge effort.

everyone that bought into bitcoin or acquired bitcoin in every single year apart from 2021-22 is in profit right now

everyone in 2021 is hoarding lower than their buy.
70% of miners in 2021 are hoarding lower than acquisition

~50% of everyone in 2022 is hoarding lower than their buy.

but in short. only those holding less than 18month is in fear
everyone else just wish hopes for more gains than their current gains

You must know that a trader or an investor must have the ability to control his emotion. If someone can't control emotion or he often feels panic, it means he still isn't ready to be a crypto trader/investor. Never think to be a trader or investor if you can't control emotion, it only leads to a big opportunity for big losses. About loan money to use for trading or investment, it is not recommended to do. Everyone must avoid using loan money since not guarantee of success in crypto trading/investment.

That's why everyone is only advised to invest what they can afford to lose, because basically we never know what will happen in the future. A good potential to hope for, but something like a long-term trend reversal might still be reasonable to worry about.

If they can only afford to lose $1K, then don't ever try to multiply it to $10K or more out of a penchant for imagining big profit. So this should be an extra consideration especially if they don't invest in bitcoin.