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There is no bear market without a bull market. The bear market that we are experiencing is not something new or strange , it has always been like this . The bear market is just an opportunity for investors to hodl their bitcoin for the next bull market. The bull market will surely take place.  If the world economy is down it doesn't mean their wont be a bull market coming , bitcoin was designed for dip and bull to occur.

You need to understand that while we are in a bear market, there will be constant attempts to lower the price even lower. But the 19k level proved to be very reliable and there are still hopes that this level will become insurmountable for the bears. In fact, after trying to grow, yesterday bitcoin began to roll back a little, that is, we can say that there was a reaction to the news, but it was very insignificant.

If you're referring to the same market that I am familiar with, then I believe that Bitcoin is underperforming fairly compared to other markets because, despite all the negative press, it has been trading in the $19k to $20k zone for a while. Just take a look at how certain stocks slumped yesterday when they reported earnings that fell short of expectations. Stocks like Meta and AMZN sank yesterday, yet bitcoin is still rising despite news that one of the major bitcoin miners suspended mining yesterday. In conclusion, even if other markets are struggling, bitcoin will still move when an opportunity arises.

I take a bit of an issue with your above statement that I have bolded, salad daging.

Since we do not have guarantees about bitcoin's price, but we likely will still realize that bitcoin is going to continue to remain amongst the most prestine of assets to hold.  I have no problem with either selling off some bitcoin as the price goes up which may also mean diversifying into some other assets along the way, too.

Of course, there are devil in the details, yet it seems that part of my point is that it will likely become more clear how to manage and/or maintain our bitcoin stash as our stash grows - and in that regard, I doubt that it is healthy to ever think about completely diversifying out of BTC, so in that sense, even if there might be expectations that bitcoin might have a cycle (that includes a very long correction) it may well be the case that many of us will still choose to continue to hold on to a decent amount of our BTC stash.

So for example, if our goal is to get to $2million in value of bitcoin in a kind of sustainable fuck you status, and maybe so far we have accumulated 2.5 BTC, and we anticipate that in the next 10 years, we will be able to accumulate another 2.5 BTC, so that will give us a total of 5 BTC, so if bitcoin prices get to $400k in the next 10 years, then we will have reached our $2million fuck you status.   What you going to do?  Sell your 5 BTC (since it is worth $2 million - which happens to be your goal)? and put it in what?

From this example, you might see why I have issues with the idea of thinking about selling BTC merely because it goes up and reaches your goal.. but I do not have problems in regard to selling some off along the way..or even valuing your BTC in such ways to consider something like the 200-week moving average to help to better inform you how to attempt to manage your BTC holdings... which might authorize you to sell some of your BTC as the price goes up and goes on peaks, but it would not necessarily authorize you to be selling larger portions of your stash but instead continuing to build your stash. and to perhaps continue to diversify in a variety of ways.. so that you can enjoy your life based on bitcoins anticipated appreciation.

Even though I likely need to revise some of my 200-week moving average projections, you can see from my thread and my post last revised on December 28, 2021, I had gone through a process of attempting to valuate BTC base on 200-week moving average projections - and even if that chart might be a bit too ambitious, it does project out that the 200-week moving average might be able to justify 5 BTC reaching $2million by 2026. or maybe within years thereafter.. if I might need to make the slope of the anticipated 200-week moving average to represent a curve rather than a straight line.

There are too many speculations about the price of Bitcoin in the future, of course, with them predicting that the next few years Bitcoin will increase rapidly, they are also experts on predictions There are certain reasons why Bitcoin can reach the highest price of all time because it has an annual cycle with its history.

What we have to do is hold Bitcoin for maybe much better for a decade maybe we can feel how to sell at a high price, if that happens it will be an experience for you to hold Bitcoin for a long time, we should also be able to do this without having to be around pressure from others in the sense that we can still hold Bitcoin without selling along the way.

What I want is to stabilize our finances for a long time, for example I am still working for a long time in a company or have a business that can be our income while we can invest without being bothered by other needs because we have enough of the work hard work or other endeavors.

ARK Investment Management Star Fund Manager Cathie Wood predicated bitcoin would be exceeded more than $1 million by 2030

Mike McGlone senior commodity strategy at Bloomberg intelligence predict that bitcoin would hit $100000 at the end of 2025

Greg Beard is one of wall Street's most successful natural resources investors at 21 century believes that bitcoin would hit $200000 at the spring of 2027


Reference

Bitcoin derives its value primarily by NOT being part of the exclusive financial system we currently have. Any financial technology that is able to operate outside the existing global financial system means a loss in transaction cost revenue to the powerful banking cartel. The major risk for banks is that their rent-seeking operative behavior, which was mostly based on stalling innovation, is now at risk. It is even way more complex than that of course, but for someone who might not be as familiar with Bitcoin as some people on this forum are, this is one of the reasons Bitcoin is novel: it operates outside the global monopolistic web of banking structures. That alone is a gigantic innovative aspect of Bitcoin as everyone thought banks are the only institutions that are able to keep double spending at a minimum. Bitcoin solved double spending entirely. No administration needed in the banking system sense. Just truth seeking coordination and truth spreading through incentivized problem solving.

What exactly do you mean by novel here? The price is derived from the demand and it's derived from utility which btc provide to the holders in many ways like used as payment processor or as an asset to increase your profit share in the future or making transactions across the globe without any third party so you see lot of actual usage.

If we say about selling then what happens with people is they have invested at high amounts and when they see prices dumping they get panic ignoring the volatility factor believing it will not rise so they incur loss in these situations or some invest more then they afford to loose so they are ignoring the rules of investment and can't control their emotions but they need to realise bitcoin will rise in the future for sure.

If you believe that Bitcoin is NOT offering anything novel, then you likely do not understand or appreciate what bitcoin is.

Maybe you can start out by stating what you believe bitcoin is, and then describe why that the thing that bitcoin is offering does not happen to be novel.  Once you describe what you believe bitcoin is offering, then we can identify how you seem to be either misunderstanding it, under-appreciating it or just failing/refusing to describe it for what it is.


You mean anything that endures is cyclical? because some things live and die and therefore not everything would be cyclical from at least a superficial viewpoint.


Well, if someone (or people) do not understand what bitcoin is or they don't realize that bitcoin is likely to be enduring rather than a passing fad, then they might not panic so easily.  Also, there is a tendency for people to really dislike losing value, so the phenomena is that they have tendencies to feel losses much more strongly than they might feel gains.. It is a phenomena known as "loss aversion," and it seems likely that loss aversion would be more present in cases that people don't really understand either what they are investing in or they have not developed their own investment thesis regarding the asset (such as bitcoin in this case).


Well that makes sense, yet it likely is not easy to keep emotions out of it, unless a person develops a plan for how s/he is going to invest into the asset (in this case bitcoin). 

So if the decision to invest has been made, then there might be a decision regarding how to do it and over what kind of a time horizon, and if the person does not really think through how they are going to invest in a way that account for possible considerable price volatility, then such person might lump sum invest into BTC, but not really be ready if the price moves down instead of sideways or up, so their plan should include accounting for that the BTC price might go down from the point of their investment. 

Something similar could be true if a person decides to invest into BTC and considered that the BTC price is going to go down or sideways before it goes up, and then if the BTC price ends up going UP rather than down or sideways, then they end up acting out of emotions because they failed/refused to adequately account for the possibility that the BTC price could go up rather than down or sideways.


What does that mean?  Are you talking about bitcoin or dollars or something else?  If you are talking about dollars, then are you talking about keeping it secure by trying to decide where to store it and then perhaps being ready to employ the dollars to be able to buy bitcoin at points in BTC's price moves in which you believe are within the terms of your plan?  or are you referring to some other way of securing your "money"?


I agree with you that the odds are pretty high that bitcoin's price is going to rise from here, but it might take a while to play out or it could happen right away, or it could go sideways or down before up, or it might go up before down, and I suppose there are variations regarding where it might go prior to going up in the event that the seemingly more likely odds of it going up plays out... So in the meantime, what are people supposed to do? Buy currently, or just wait or what?  Time plays a factor too in terms of days, months, years or even 4-10 years?  How long are they going to be waiting? Do you know?  Will they still be alive by the time it sufficiently and adequately starts to go up?

That's quite difficult to generalize the way you do this. I believe we have all been running into a crisis that wasn't anticipated and hence priced into our own risk calculations and appetite. For example, if you take the pandemic or the war, such events can create significant downturn momentum that is totally exogenous. The issue about it is that even those who did price in massive exogenous effects when setting up their portfolio, are also well advised to sell because it is unlikely they can stop or rely on others to stop downward momentum. These exogenous shocks are to a certain degree self-fulfilling prophecies because both dumb and smart investors do the right thing when they sell and rather buy back later.

Nonetheless, cyclicality does play a role, but it is hard to discern what portion of the overall effect (bearish/bullish momentum) reflects cyclicality and what portion derives from exogenous shocks.

The fact that bitcoin doesn't offer anything novel is really incredibly reassuring. There must always be equilibrium because everything is cyclical. Many people panic when the price drops, and selling is all they can think about. Every market trend makes an impact on individuals, so after you've made the decision to invest, you must keep your emotions out of it, especially if you're anxious. Instead, practice keeping your money secure. People continue to wonder if the price will increase at the current level, even though it actually will.

Maybe I communicated my idea badly?  I am largely suggesting that we have been confirmed to have been in a bear market since mid May.. even though of course, the top of the price was in November 2021 and there could be arguments that the bear trend started in April 2021 after the first peak.. but I am suggesting that such bear market was really ONLY made clear in around mid-May 2022 when the BTC price dropped below the 100-week moving average (which was then around $35.2k), and failed to immediately bounce back above that price within a day or two.


Sure.. but who knew? until later?  Of course you can assert that you knew earlier than me, but it's a little difficult and perhaps even meaningless to proclaim any kind of superior knowledge or insight.. so sure, maybe I am framing the matter in terms of when it became clear to me that we were in a bear market.. which is mid -may.. even though assertions as to when the bear market started can be matters of interpretation too...but those are historical framings and sometimes those historical framings (and the different ways of making them) can be useful to figure out where we are at currently or where we might be going.


Sure... no problem with that as a possibility.. and at the same time, how we frame where we are going and where we have been can have quite a bit of variance, even if a chart may be interpreted in different ways in terms of highlighting which portions we might believe to be more or less important or even more or less relevant.. different interpretations can surely come from looking at charts - and also depending on which chart and perhaps which indicators you might determine to be important including questions that might lay outside of the chart in terms of factors that might not be shown on the chart that can also have quite a bit of variability in terms of how much weight to give some of these outside factors, such as adoption and network effects... for example, or macro and news events, too.. 


Could be.  Depending on where someone is at in their bitcoin journey, some people might not want to accumulate when the BTC price is potentially on the way up.. so if there might be flat price behavior or even lower price behavior or staying stuck in in some perceived lower price arena such as lower than the 200 week moving average (which is currently at around $23,723) even if looking at sub 100-week moving average as relatively low prices (which is currently nearly at $38k)

I tend to be pretty hesitant to proclaim with very much certainty where I believe the BTC price to be going in the short term, but I would imagine that we would likely need to get well above the 200-week moving average and maybe even stay above $32k-ish for a while (getting close to the 100-week moving average) before I will start to feel comfortable to assert that either the bottom is in or the bear market is over.. even though by the time we figure out that it is over, we would likely still be able to assert that the mid-June bottom of $17,593(so far) was the bottom, if that is what ends up happening.


You are not getting me too excited aboutthe price going up.. until at least we start to get close to $30k, and like I said I probably am not going to be satisfied to start getting cocky about UPpity potential until we get above $32k..and surely how fast we go there (assuming that we will go there some day), will likely also affect how confident that I might be about the bottom (of $17,593) being in or the bear market being over.

I am a delayed indicator.. and I don't play around with the price anyhow.  I have a system in which I buy on the way down and sell on the way up and it does not require me to predict much of anything except maybe on the margins and maybe in the longer term, such as 5-10 years or longer that the BTC is going to end up averaging going up from whatever price point that we happen to be.. and I am kind of hoping too that BTC is going to appreciate in value greater than the dollar is depreciating.... but of course, we do not have guarantees and we ONLY have probabilities that have been playing out pretty damned well so far, even though I don't bank on having any kind of guarantees, but instead having sufficiently enough skin in the game that I am going to do way better by the BTC price going up rather than down.. but no need to really worry about already being in sufficient profits, so I don't feel any urgency to reallocate out of BTC or to take meaningful profits.. instead I just skim from time to time as the BTC price goes up and also just spend if I need to (while perhaps holding back on as much spending of BTC during times like this.. if possible)


I hope you are correct, yet I am not ready to even be close to being that bold in any assertions that I make, as I already outlined my general mental framework on the bitcoin price dynamics topic.


I am not clear what you are saying here?

We might consider our dropping below the 100-week moving average in May 2022 as our $6k to $3k move.. so now we are stuck at $3k.. but yeah, of course, we are not going to necessarily know unless we were to drop more.. or maybe we end up having a recovery that is similar to April 2019 - in which we spent nearly 5 months bouncing around in the $3.5k to $4.2k price range, and then finally broke from $4.2k to $13,888 that was a three months price move, and thereafter returned back to the $4ks to $6ks at least a couple of times (once in late 2019 and again in March 2020 - which some folks consider to be a bit of an aberration).

I doubt that you have explained the idea of downtrend any better than BinarySumo.

There was an implication from BinarySumo that we were in a downtrend and such downtrend was continuing because we were in the middle of it.

You seem to be agreeing with BinarySumo but saying something a bit different.

Yeah, of course we see that there was a downtrend from November until mid-June.. but then since mid-June we have largely been stuck in the low, and sure perhaps the bottom is not in, yet can we imply that we are in the middle of a continued downtrend?

I also have no problem with the idea that we are in a bear market that had largely been confirmed since around mid-May - so even though the idea of a bear market presumes that the odds for going down are greater than the odds for going up, we still should not be implying that the bottom for sure is not in because maybe we have ONLY slightly greater than 50/50 odds of going below the already hit bottom of $17,593 from mid-June.. which is already nearly 4.5 months ago.

Why do you have to "hope" mate? It is clearly there in the charts which you obviously have not seen before commenting. Every bear market is a part of a cycle and comes back to the bull market - this is inevitable.

The duration of a bear market is something that cannot be predicted, while sustaining through it is tough for a average trader. Still news media ends up making these bitcoin burst and chatbox trolls come up with the "the end of bitcoin" type quotes and are never to be heard of again.

Point remains same, while the entire world seems upside-down you have to keep your feet on the ground - meaning that you need your own research and analysis to keep your footing on bitcoin's price instead of  listening to netizens about their predictions and comments.

The whole concept depends on the demand and supply factor and at this time there are more people selling their coins on comparison with investment which is why we are seeing price downtrend not any pattern which btc follow so we need to realise this fact.In the future when there is more cash flow in the economy more people will invest in bitcoin and we will see price rising and soon we can enter bull run mode say by the end of Q4 of this year so hope for best.

Regret always comes too late, when opportunities come to us but we always ignore those opportunities, after we see other people enjoying the investment returns they have gotten then we regret it, why don't we want to invest, that's our human principle because we trust the media too much who said negative things about bitcoin, so we missed the opportunity that came our way, luckily I never believed in the media and billionaires who cornered bitcoin and I always had my own predictions I finally got what I wanted.

I as a person who invests in bitcoin, I hope that the bitcoin cycle is as you say. and hopefully in the future there will be a better bull run market. but I think for now bitcoin will be in the bear market for a very long time. and it will be difficult to step into a bull market. because the world economy is down.

The media has a role in playing the issue as desired, but it seems they fail to dispel bitcoin to grow and develop, although not all media try to voice negative or positive things towards Bitcoin.
Freming is made according to needs, commands and follow the developing trends, while the impact can not connection with the news they issue, which is why many media make narration that is not in accordance with the factors on the ground.

The phenomenon of bubble burst is an economic growth or market value, especially the price of assets followed by a rapid decline in value or contraction. Bubbles are generally caused by a surge in prices by high market behavior, so that a narrative appears tailored to the needs. But Bitcoin has found a way to continue to grow and achieve values ​​outside of predictions at that time.

This is the reason the cycle works in accordance with the process that is running, growth and recovery will repeatedly, to reach the explosion of prices such as when achieving ATH.
Similar titles, the same narrative and the effects that will be caused will experience contractions, more than 11 years we watch this.
Don't worry and don't need to panic.
Hold and buy more, then we will go to the moon

That means the loop of time and the iterative sequence is bitcoin's journey through a true cycle, like a wheel spinning and centered on the same axis.
Bitcoin has shown a long process since its introduction, the growth of bitcoin has increased quite rapidly from time to time. The theory from the picture you show, is the basis for introducing bitcoin for beginners and should be a reference for the bitcoin cycle, so that beginners don't panic when bitcoin finds its correction again.

Almost not much different from the journey of one's life in this world, meaning that the process of turning the wheel will continue in our lives, even though distance and time may not match and have differences.
I mean, the process of a dump or pump is a cycle process that rotates, sooner or later it will return to the recovery stage and the next bitcoin growth will continue to rotate according to the increase.
Where from 2014 to 2018 is a long process that will make references as reinforcement of the facts.

Once again.
The price of bitcoin can not be predicted clearly, this is the other side that makes bitcoin easier to accept, because certainty is another form beyond human thought. The approach or adoption of bitcoin is much more scalable, once one begins to understand it, but that doesn't mean the low bitcoin price is an excuse for panic.

What's interesting about bitcoin is here, buying at a time of correction or at a low price is a promising investment preparation step. The moment of correction must be fully exploited, otherwise we will lose the opportunity to start.
Worry is something not to be afraid of, make friends with worry so that we can know the other side of the advantages of bitcoin.

Wait and buy more

The phrase "bitcoin is dead!" has been said and heard by critics and supporters since time immemorial. At this point to say that this will be the final bear market until bitcoin completely dies off is nothing short of a joke and a meme amongst the people in this forum, more so the ones who are actively supporting bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Bitcoin is once again showing signs of a bull run which could happen sooner or later. Posts like these are important especially for beginners who are easily swayed by FUD and FOMO.