Topic: ㅤ - page 3. (Read 2785 times)

I am sure about that but for me there is no guarantee about it but we will soon get out of the current cycle and reach a new cycle by achieving ATH.
I see history, what I understand, behind it, there are always those who say that the 4-year bitcoin cycle will become a routine, even if it happens again in the future, I will still be happy that bitcoin will recover and be bullish again.

For me now is a downtrend cycle that has just started we have to prepare for it from now on, to get bitcoin and DCA and Dips is a common practice now, for those who buy above have to stay patient and forget about your investment money, and come back after a year 2024.
As for my DCA practice I have to keep it running all week and it can't get boring for me, even though it's a bit annoying to see the prices.
But I can do that without reducing me to bitcoins.

The annual cycle of bitcoin in my opinion is something like this:

2012 and 2013 were bull markets (uptrends)
2014 and 2015 were bear market (downtrend)
2016 and 2017 were bull markets (uptrends)
2018 and 2019 are bear markets (downtrend)
2020 and 2021 will be bullish (uptrend)
2022 and 2023 will be bearish (downtrend)
2024 and 2025 will be bullish (uptrend)

and that's just my opinion, so I've never been afraid of a bitcoin drop and I consider this drop a big discount that shouldn't be wasted, and DCA is the best choice to increase buying during a downtrend.

here is a revelation to you about "flood of fiat"

you will be surprised to learn about fiat market of bitcoin

imagine in 2012 an average "minnow trader" had $400 a month to spend to buy bitcoin
with bitcoin at $6 a coin. meant they got 66btc

this does not mean that now that 1btc is 2500x more in price($16k).. that people are average spending 2500x more per month
(that minnow is not forced to deposit more money just to trade/get in)

what you are actually seeing is minnow investors are still paying $400 a month

however bitcoin sellers no longer want to give them 66 coins for $400.. instead they will give them 0.025btc for the offered $400

yep. bitcoin market is not simply more money needs to be put in, to raise bitcoin prices..

its not like fiat shares where only whole shares have to be bought which means investors have to pay more to get invested.

bitcoin is divisible

in 2012 the minnow and whales were noticeably in 2 'order' amounts you would see flowing orders of 1btc and "wall orders"(hard to break through) of 1000btc on markets..

now we see 0.001 and "wall orders" of 1btc

its not where people who deposited $6 in 2012 to buy 1btc now have to pay $16k+ just to get 'in'

they can still pay in just $6. its just the seller gives them decimals..
which then translate to being $16k for a whole coin (due to math, not money). even without people actually handing over $16k for whole coins on the market orders, bitcoin prices can and do go up

yep the market price is not actually buyers swapping whole $16k for a whole 1btc

its little orders of like $160 to buy 0.01 which translates to (math: away from real trade hand changing of real funds).. as  a statistic of $16k for 1 btc
..
so lets say instead of $15k being min mine cost. it went to $20k a coin mining cost
lets say instead of $400 a buyer only had $300 spare

a bitcoin seller..
now 0.025btc for $400 (translates to $16k a coin)
becomes 0.015btc for $300  (translates to $20k a coin)

so even with les "buyer money" deposited into a market. the price can still rise. because the sellers give less coin to those buyers

.. a system unlike fiat stock/shares where people have to buy whole shares. which means more fiat is needed to be deposited to buy shares

That is absolutely right, still the fiat market has a huge impact on bitcoin. Since the last 10+ years there was a flood of fiat money, we could see bitcoin increase. What will happen hoverer if the next 10+ years we will see high interest rates and not much new money being printed.

Keep holding!

It's hard to predict what the future holds and whether history will repeat itself. We are still in a bear market period and it is a great opportunity for me to invest and accumulate more bitcoins. The Bitcoin cycle never seems to disappoint and is expected to deliver huge gains during the next bull run.

forget everything you have ever learned in your life about the markets of fiat.. those illogicals do not apply to bitcoin because bitcoin is not inflationary like fiat markets.. bitcoin is deflationary..

lesson one is this. do not look at or care about ATH. do not think of ATH as a important number. think of them as just a temporary blip event of premium prices no one wants to buy

flip the mindset.. look at the historic periodic lows to find value. note that the periodic cyclical lows rise in value.

always buy low .. and sell high. low=important.. high is pfft not so
do not use words like "when bull market return"

assume you are only watching the periodic lows that are in constant bull
assume the market price above the lows is just the whimsy of speculation, the clouds in the sky, the vapour. and not a value

yes take advantage of the whimsy movements of the market. but dont have the mindset of bull and bear where you are thinking that the CORRECTION from a 1 day ATH event is a bear and that bears are bad as they are killing your value..
instead realise you are slaves to gravity. you stand at ground level looking up.. lows are the best times to buy. the happy days.

once you forget the ATH notions as being important. and instead live in gravity of a grass field of cows(bulls you can milk) you feed as you take them up a hill. you stop thinking of bears.
milk the cows for profit as thats what they are there for
.
then learn about the ground you stand on that supports you which is above sea level (non zero) and while looking at the ground instead of the vapour clouds that dont last long notice how over time you are going uphill.

this non zero ground is not based on whimsy of the market. its based on the actual bitcoin cost. the underlying cost of mining. yep its a real thing.. its tangeable.. the mining hardware and energy to create the blockchain is the real infrastructure. unlike the market.
costing out the lowest price on the planet to mine gives you the underlying value you stand ON
this supports you and rises over time.
if no one on the planet can farm for less than X no one can sell for less and no one would want to . thus supporting a certain level

the lowest costs.. thats the important numbers to keep in mind. not the market whimsy ATH temporary events of social speculation and manipulation in the clouds of vapour.

then you will start to understand the cycles more.. the halving event is based on the blockchain units, not markets.. has effects on the mining costs of those units.. understand them and then you will see the big picture of true value

the market stuff is just the speculation above ground above value. which is volatile and stormy and unpredictable. take advantage when you can of the speculation but stay grounded to the underlying value
then things will make more sense and give you more of a sense of security and stable growth over time of deflation

..
you will then over time start to have this mindset.
i years ago got a nice hoard of coin. i do not think about "omg i missed a ATH to sell" instead i think "well 2020 value was $3k 2021 value was $10k 2022 value is $15k". i know each year the value of my coin goes up. because i stay grounded. looking at the grass that feeds my cows that i can milk when i want

There is no doubt that Bitcoin is cyclical, but it is hard to predict its next move based on its cyclical nature because it always plays out what market doesn't expect. During the current bear cycle it broke its previous ATH (17K) which was unprecedented & even now it is trading around 16K.

The best strategy what I learned by experience is to accumulate it when there is reasonable dip in its price and wait for the next dip to make further buying if you have got enough funds. You will definitely book good profit when bull market returns.

You are overly projecting if you try to lock what I said into something that you are wanting it to be in order that you can create a kind of strawman.

I was giving a general overview of the situation in which the BTC price dropped from $50k (the proclaimed BTC buying starting point of newbie member 721Lamont) to the current BTC price.  No way was I suggesting some kind of a rigid laddering practice that would ONLY be buying in equal increments on the way down, unless the person was wanting to construct such an artificial approach (limitation) for himself/herself.

Sure in the end new BTC accumulators can do whatever the fuck they want, yet becoming too rigid is likely NOT any kind of approach that I would be recommending absent a real specific reason to approach it that way (and I cannot really think of any reason to do that unless a person was already fully allocated in bitcoin and just treating his/her additional accumulation as a kind of detached game.. which hardly makes any sense for the vast majority of people to be treating their bitcoin accumulation in that kind of a way, even though I realize that people come up with all kinds of quasi-retarded approaches to the way that they do things, including something like accumulating bitcoin).


That's true.  A pure DCA method would be buying regularly at whatever price, so for example $10 per week or $100 per week or $2,000 per month or whatever other set schedule that a person might choose.

For sure, if someone is brand new to bitcoin, then I may well recommend starting with something very close to a pure DCA method; however, usually I will also recommend that newbies attempt to be somewhat introspective regarding why they are buying BTC and to at least consider if they want to attempt to employ some kind of a hybrid version of DCA that might also include buying on dips, lump sum investing as ways to potentially front load their investment or to consider ways that they might tailor their approach to the totality of their own situation that would include considering factors related to their cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Of course, there is a need to walk before running, so in that regard, I consider DCA to be a kind of superficial way to get started and I also consider it to be amongst the best of BTC accumulation strategies for those who are just getting started and do not know what to do, and also can be a fall back approach, even when attempting to apply some other BTC accumulation methods or even a fallback approach if someone might consider that they may have graduated away from BTC accumulation, but then for some reason consider that BTC's price moves or some other factors (or even changes in their own considerations) may have caused them to fall back into some kind of BTC accumulation approach to their BTC investment portfolio.


I like to tell people to do what the fuck they want, and they are responsible for their own investment.. but a good starting approach is DCA... and in the end they are responsible for what they choose to do... but get the fuck started.


That might work, but I usually don't recommend waiting as a way to get started.. but hey.. you do you.  If you think waiting is a good idea, then perhaps you already have some BTC.. if you do not have any, you better at least start by buying a little.. and at least at that point you have gotten started... and then once you have already started, you are then able to supplement with whatever other approach.

Of course, there may well be circumstances in which waiting might be prudent.. but if they do not have any BTC, then I hardly imagine waiting to be a good starting plan.



Yes.. I don't have any real problem with that kind of an approach.  For example, when I got started I had created a 6 month budget for myself, and then I created a weekly allowance for myself (which would have been the total budget divided by 26 in order to get my weekly amount).  You could create those approaches on a monthly basis too.. and sure mix and match.  My personal approach was to get a stake in the game over 26 weeks and then to spend within the week.. but sure, you could spend within the month... and you can reconsider your approach too, and ultimately, it is likely a good idea to have a plan in which you are comfortable with what your allowance is and your various time periods in which you want to carry out your budget (spending) based on your various personal circumstances.



I do not recommend those automatic systems.. and I agree with you that each of us should be careful in terms of buying around dates that a lot of other buys might be taking place...

And, by the way, fuck crypto.. we are not talking about crypto here.. we are talking about bitcoin.  I would not recommend any of these strategies in regards to "crypto."  Bitcoin has strong fundamentals and is an asymmetric bet (to the upside) that is why DCA and various other long term investment strategies apply to bitcoin but do not necessarily apply to crypto overall unless you happen to find some shitcoin project that you believe has a long term investment thesis and I doubt that would be true. unless you are just fooling yourself in regards to those various smoke and mirror house of cards affinity scams.


Fuck crypto currencies and shitcoins.  We are not talking about that here.  Try rewording your post and focus on talking about bitcoin in order that you are at least talking about the subject matter of this thread.


I agree with everything that you say serjent05 - except you seem to imply that there is some kind of guarantee that we will be out of this cycle and reach another ATH. 

Sure the odds are pretty decent that we will both be going up and that we will reach new ATHs in the coming years, there is no guarantees that ATH will be reached or that BTC will continue to follow a cycle, even if historically (so far) Bitcoin has largely followed a cycle.

If you have extra fund you can accumulate more during this price crash.  DCA at least in order to lower down your buy price.  And if you don't want to spend more then just hodl and wait for the market to surge on the next bitcoin halving.  As stated by OP, Bitcoin market is cyclical so you just need to wait for the current cycle to end and be on the look for the ATH in the next cycle.

Many people in crypto world is afraid of cryptocurrency because of the bearish market that we experiencing now but I know that the value of bitcoin today which is not constant it was not the first time it happens like this the value to go up and come down so it might be changed to a higher price any time so that is why I am not afraid of the price cycle of cryptocurrency

Jay Juan..
your last post started by describing one investment method called "averaging down" which is a way if using the same amount of fiat when buying the high you spend again to buy the low. that average becomes $33k

however.. DCA is a different investment method. where people just buy in regular amounts often no matter the price because you trust one day in the future the price will grow to beat whatever prices you buy at now

i personally dont like to just tell people or see other people tell others to straight out DCA
instead yes put your spare fiat into an exchange regular ready to buy. but look at the monthly market. and see are they buying that specific hour at the weekly/monthy high where by it might be good to wait a bit to see some movements and pick a time to 'buy a dip'

for instance
a google search reveals that retirees in america social security check are released on wednesdays.. meaning many retirees using their government pension as a inflation hedge by throwing it straight into crypto would all deposit on the same day and end up DCA on same day if all just straight up DCAing.. which ends up causing a wednesday to blip up in a temporary high point each mon on that day per month if everyone done it..

so if too many did. its best to deposit. but wait for the dip after that day

I doubt that the best way to get into bitcoin is to lump sum at $50k in late 2021 (or perhaps early 2022), and then just sit on that investment, especially if the BTC price has gone down so much.

In other words, if you did your homework and you decided that you had conviction that bitcoin was a good investment at $50k, then you should be able to determine that it is good to continue to buy all the way down from $50k to our current $16k-ish prices.

Of course, you have to figure out what is your budget and what is your strategy, but seems to be too much of a gambling technique to merely sit on your hands and fail refuse to buy more on the way down from $50k to our current $16k-ish prices.

So what is going to be your technique for accumulating BTC?  What is your budget?  Do you continue to make various lump sum purchases of BTC at lower prices, or do you figure out some kind of a DCA strategy, or do you engage in a variety of strategies to DCA, buy on dips and to lump sum invest?

The ultimate particulars regarding how you plan to execute your strategies and how you actually execute your strategies will have to do with a variety of your own personal particulars - and again, to me, it seems that in many cases, just sitting on your hands and waiting is not a very well planned strategy - even though in some cases, sitting on your hands might be amongst the better of plays.... so ultimately, each of us needs to figure out those kinds of particulars for ourselves and hope that we are not too regretful about our way forward, even if we currently feel that we might have made mistakes in the past.

By the way, I would not consider buying at $50k to have had been a mistake - unless you over did it, and unless you were ONLY prepared financially and/or psychologically for the BTC price to go up, at that time.  But even if you have made some mistakes in the past with your finances and/or your psychology, there may still be ways in which you can go forward in a way that you attempt to prepare yourself for whichever direction the BTC price might go from here, even if you might to decide to just start buying something as low as $10 per week worth of bitcoin.

A four-year cycle is hard for me. Because I bought a little bit of bitcoin at $50,000. I think the best way to invest is to buy it and then forget about it. Follow its price a few years later.

Nothing is smooth sailing. Only the ups and downs are true.
Now that this economic downturn is global, it cannot be ruled out that some people store their assets in cryptocurrencies and wait for the arrival of the bull market.

It is a matter of patience here, trading is something that needs a lot of patience and faith in the asset you are putting money in. Of course developments are happening in Bitcoin Core, but the common people and even the regular traders are not much interested in that but the prices, apart from a handful of traders who actually keep track of developments.

If your idea of "development" is a price rise, then you are mistaking market movement with technical development. These are two different things.

But that is three years from now, I expect the prices to rise after the year end right away back to 20k at least. This would be a long time to predict for because the highs and lows in bitcoin actually come in at much smaller intervals - probably six months or so.

basically everyone predicts good developments in bitcoin going forward, I don't think there is anything to worry about holding it, but by looking at the length of time we wait actually no one knows for sure when it will happen, I think learning to trade is also more profitable considering we will get profit every day when you become a pro trader, while waiting for our investment to give maximum results on its development

Though crypto initially opposed itself to traditional fiat money, one thing is common and this is cyclicity. If we take a look at the main BTC supercycles when it reached the highest values, we would see important patterns and taking this I’d assume that we’ll see that the next high will be appx in Nov-Dec`25.

It's interesting, hopefully it becomes real. We have to be patient to wait for that year, besides I hope I am given health until the year comes. The problem is the mentality of holding back, because I'm not sure I can hold back until such a big price.
I hope it's not just an opinion that aims to get people to buy and they take advantage quickly. But logically if calculated by minning rewards and needs I hope it continues to bring in new users which leads to increased demand and causes price increases.

The bear market runs only in a year and even reaches a year and a half of the cycle, maybe this is only to my knowledge in the last few years I have studied it, at least from 2019 we have felt it, at least we can learn from before, even though many people are stuck in the market bears don't mean they don't make a profit even though it's small, at least they have benefited from the short-term buying and selling they did, because it's very risky to play long-term when the bear market is running, if you hold Bitcoin for the long term, we don't seem to need to care because every year bitcoin has a surprise for its holders, in contrast to altcoins if you use it for the long term, the risk of loss will definitely exist.

The problem this time is that people are stuck in the bear market from a very long time although these conditions are prevalent here from long but there also needs to be incoming profit streams to make yourself positive about market sentiments which is lacking at the moment.But those who have invested in bitcoin and understand how it works holding long term will always be fun for them and profitable so be optimistic about the growth without worrying lot of current trends.