Your statement would've made sense in 2010 or early 2011. But the "risk" of bitcoin going to zero is very low now. Bitcoin has an actual economy that is proven and growing.
The chance to make FORTY THOUSAND times your money ($10,000,000/250) is now gone. Bitcoin would need to take over all international trade. How much international trade did bitcoin take over in 2014? How much will it take over in 2015? Near zero. Do you think that one day everyone in the world will decide that it's time to start using bitcoin? No, we're going to see the trend growing over time.
This market is more mature now. If you want a potentially lifechanging number of bitcoin, you need to accumulate enough bitcoin so that $1,000 to $2,000 per bitcoin in 2021 can change your life. Is 100 bitcoin a lot of money? To most people, yes it is. But that's the kind of money you are going to have to put down to change your life.
167 bitcoins sounds more like it. That's what can take you from living a normal life to having a full-time cook preparing your meals and a part-time captain to drive your yacht. That's a life change.
I agree that the market is more mature, and that bitcoin going to zero is a lot less likely than it was in 2010 or 2011. I also agree that the upside is much smaller than it was in 2010 or 2011. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that the risk is small now. Even if bitcoin doesn't go to zero, there's no guarantee it won't drop by 90% again, like it has in the past year. Even a 30% drop would be big, compared to "normal" investments. That's why for bitcoin to be attractive, it needs to have a HUGE upside. And I believe it does.
The problem with what you're saying is, people who can potentially make a life-changing amount from a $1000 dollar bitcoin does not exist. What do I mean? Well, you said hire a full-time cook, part-time captain and your own yacht. That would probably require a few deca-million. But let's go for a more modest $5,000,000. With a $1k bitcoin, that's 5,000 bitcoins now, or $1,250,000 USD. If you can invest over 1 million USD today, then 5 million dollars WILL NOT be a life-changing amount for you. You probably already have a networth at least close to that, and while it will be a nice windfall, it won't be life changing.
5 mil will only be life changing for people who are not already decently wealthy right now. These people cannot afford thousands of bitcoins. So for someone to be able to make a life-changing amount from bitcoin, bitcoin MUST increase by 100x or even more.
Well 100 x $1000 = $100,000 that's enough to change people's lives in a small way. Retire 5 year earlier. Something like that.
100 x $10,000 = $1,000,000. That's lifechanging in a bigger way. Maybe move to a new neighborhood. Retire in Thailand if you want.
100 x $30k to $100k = $3,000,000 to $10,000,000. That's where you can buy the yacht, and hire the captain for a few weekends, and have a full-time cook. If it's 3 million, maybe you need to move to the Philippines to afford your staff and boat maintenance but it's still doable.
If demand in USD just goes sideways, we'll be at ~$1000 after two more halvings. I think that scenario is almost like a floor. Not much needs to actually happen in terms of development to get there.
100 BTC will change your life. It's just a matter of patience.
MAYBE 1 BTC can change your life. Maybe.
