Notice a pattern? My measly 6.9TH/s (6xS5) is now a small miner. Top is shares, and bottom is pool hashrate, over a 14 hour period. I'm sure people can pick this apart, debate luck and statistics, etc... I just thought a good screenshot, somewhat makes a point.
http://s25.postimg.org/iikptg4i7/SNAG_1426.pngI guess I'm confused by what point you're trying to make. If you're trying to compare shares found to hash rate, the only noticeable spike in your hash rate graph happens for a couple hour period. There is plenty of other time where the hash rate is relatively constant that you're not finding shares.
We all recognize that as the pool's hash rate goes up, so to does the difficulty of getting a share onto the chain, which statistically means you find fewer. However, it also statistically means the pool itself finds blocks more often. Let's say you've got your 6.9TH/s and the share difficulty is 6.5M. Statistically you expect to find a share about every 1.1 hours or so. Assuming each red spike represents one share, you found 9 shares in 12 hours, so you're a bit lower than expectations. Also, you can clearly see the distribution of found shares is nowhere near the "one an hour" expectations, but rather is clumped together.
This is
exactly what I've been saying for months now - p2pool just can't scale properly with the increased hash rate, the more the hash rate - the worse the problem. I only point a few old S3's at p2pool now, & then only when the hash is below 2PH - any more than that & it's wasted.
It's such a shame, really
Remember last year (August) when share difficulty topped 10M for the first time? Remember when it topped 20M a few times shortly thereafter? That's what squeezes the smaller miners out. Seeing a statistic that says it'll take you a day or more to find a share... and then hoping your share actually gets accepted and not orphaned. Basically, as long as your expected time to share is less than the pool's expected time to block you're OK. When it starts taking you longer to find a share than it does for the pool to find a block you perceive your mining to be "wasted" because blocks will be found for which you receive no payment.