1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 2.

Cryptoprincess101

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on September 14, 2024, 08:36:33 AM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on September 14, 2024, 05:23:51 AM

In fact, with odds of 1.9, the probability of winning is not 50% in sports betting, but 52.63%. This is the exact probability of winning with this odds. The probability of winning is calculated using the formula 100/odds. That is, if we divide 100 by 1.9, we get the figure 52.6315…%
At first glance, it may seem that this figure is close to the probability of 50%. But the difference is 2%. This is a fairly large difference in probabilities, which can be summed up in your strategy or subtracted from it in the long term, which can lead to very large wins or losses over the long term.
This difference must be taken into account in any case.

I do not believe this. If a club is given 1.9 odd to win, the club it is playing with can be given up to 2.5 or more odds but the club is not also a small club at all. There is a chance that the higher odd club can win, that is around 50% chance. Also the club may draw. That draws the chance to win lower to around 30 to 35%. If the chance for the low odds club to win is more than 35%, it can not be more than 40%.

The most problems gamblers face is following the favourite odds of the bookmakers and if it involves the stronger teams they just conclude that it will be the possible outcome. Gambling on a particular odds cannot guarantee winning even when you win from using such strategies in the past, gambling between two teams has a 50:50 chance of which among them will win even though the sides with the least odds are mostly considered the favourite.

Victorybit1

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Having a long term success rate with this has a little possibility but it's very difficult, I'm on different sites that post daily rollovers of less than 1.50 odds for days and it doesn't always turn out well. The lower the odds the higher the chances of winning but overtime I have figured out the odds doesn't really matter. A played a single game of 13 odds and I had a successful outcome and another time a single of 7 odds which also went well, these odds arrangements are ways the bookmakers confuse or trick the gamblers, sometimes These odds don't matter

Rampagoe004

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on September 17, 2024, 07:48:03 PM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

No Iif people could consistently give up odds to the casino and win regularly they would be pit of business quickly. Not saying that someone can't go on a good run but in the long run the more you bet the more chance you are giving the casino a chance to win. The best way to bet if you are looking for wins is big bets and not that often. And definately don't Chace losses.

Yes, it's true that there are not many opportunities for those who are consistent in betting to win, in fact the more small opportunities that we give to the casino in the near future will result in big losses. Everyone has played well in the short term or long term, there is still a chance for the casino to win our money.
One of the best ways is to play with large capital in the long term and you have to be prepared to lose, dare to take your own way without resetting, other people keep trying and analyzing The good ones who are too hasty in placing bets, let's take it slowly, the important thing is to be sure, losing when betting is normal, you have to keep your spirits up.

bitterguy28

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Quote from: Maslate on August 10, 2024, 02:29:43 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 10, 2024, 02:12:55 AM

This is not accurate. The 1.90 is given to you by the house when it calculates that there is a 50% probability that you will win. Those calculations are not exact. It is not like in roulette that if you play red or black you have a 47.37% chance of winning (in American roulette). That's exact.

Probability in sports betting is not like in roulette, where the odds are based on fixed probabilities. In sports betting, the odds are merely predictions set by bookmakers, which means they can sometimes be over- or undervalued. Sticking with 1.90 odds gives you a disadvantage of 10% every time you bet, so your winning chance should be 60% or more to make a profit, assuming you manage your bankroll effectively.

that is what I completely believe , luck based games are far different from Sports betting games where we are dealing with our knowledge of the team, game and timing comparing to luck based that we are only having chances away from our capacity to believe .

though I have not dealing with what is OPs asking because I randomly bet in luck games and I have my permanent teams in sports games .

wheelz1200

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

No Iif people could consistently give up odds to the casino and win regularly they would be pit of business quickly. Not saying that someone can't go on a good run but in the long run the more you bet the more chance you are giving the casino a chance to win. The best way to bet if you are looking for wins is big bets and not that often. And definately don't Chace losses.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on September 17, 2024, 01:16:42 PM

Actually, these days, in the age of crypto bookies, 1.9 is a fairly good number for a 50/50 bet. At many sites I often see odds as low as 1.75-1.8 for 50/50 bets like this. Most common odds are 1.83 or 1.85 actually. If sites I play at had 1.9 I would be more than happy actually.

The only place you get these odds atm are places like pinnacle or betting exchanges like betfair for example. Bet365 also if you are lucky but anywhere else it's definitely below.
Sure sports books have to make money, no question about that, but a vig of like 15% and more is way too much if you ask me and definitely not good in the long run for every bettor.

Totally depends on you when it comes to your preference about on the odds.Of course bookies are running up a business on which its understandable that they would be setting out those deductions
according into their liking. I do even able to test out on betting with 1.5x odds but going lesser is never been that something that i could be able to handle out. 1.90+ is indeed that a good odds
on which you could really be able to have that good profits in 50% chance on winning up but of course just like been said that it will really be that a matter of choice on how you would be able to
accept out those odds. If you do find yourself not that contented or convinced on the potential win then you could always skip out.

On the moment that i do see some other betting lines which i could be able to bet on or having that knowledge at least then this is the time i do consider out on making up some parlays
to make more the winnings to be more that appealing or something which is really that worth.

AHOYBRAUSE

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Actually, these days, in the age of crypto bookies, 1.9 is a fairly good number for a 50/50 bet. At many sites I often see odds as low as 1.75-1.8 for 50/50 bets like this. Most common odds are 1.83 or 1.85 actually. If sites I play at had 1.9 I would be more than happy actually.

The only place you get these odds atm are places like pinnacle or betting exchanges like betfair for example. Bet365 also if you are lucky but anywhere else it's definitely below.
Sure sports books have to make money, no question about that, but a vig of like 15% and more is way too much if you ask me and definitely not good in the long run for every bettor.

OgNasty

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This is how sports betting works. Obviously the house has to have an edge. There’s always a built in fee for using a service otherwise how would service providers stay in business. This is what makes gambling a pay for entertainment service. If the casino was operated not for profit, maybe gambling could be considered a job.

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Quote from: un_rank on August 10, 2024, 03:28:18 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run?

If you are playing a single game you have a good chance to be fairly even over the long run in wins and losses, could swing on the side of wins if you are lucky. If you are playing a multi ticket the chances of winning is much lower over the long run.

- Jay -

This is actually a good idea but a lot of people would disagree with it because they feel like a single game is very risky whereas multiple games are more riskier compared to single games, instead combining more than two games and having one game to ruin your bet slip just carefully analyze and pick out a single game, this actually has more chances of playing out well than multiple selections. But in sports betting everyone has their preference and strategies that works for them, the game also has some percentage of luck involved

Charles-Tim

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on September 14, 2024, 05:23:51 AM

In fact, with odds of 1.9, the probability of winning is not 50% in sports betting, but 52.63%. This is the exact probability of winning with this odds. The probability of winning is calculated using the formula 100/odds. That is, if we divide 100 by 1.9, we get the figure 52.6315…%
At first glance, it may seem that this figure is close to the probability of 50%. But the difference is 2%. This is a fairly large difference in probabilities, which can be summed up in your strategy or subtracted from it in the long term, which can lead to very large wins or losses over the long term.
This difference must be taken into account in any case.

I do not believe this. If a club is given 1.9 odd to win, the club it is playing with can be given up to 2.5 or more odds but the club is not also a small club at all. There is a chance that the higher odd club can win, that is around 50% chance. Also the club may draw. That draws the chance to win lower to around 30 to 35%. If the chance for the low odds club to win is more than 35%, it can not be more than 40%.

DubemIfedigbo001

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Quote from: un_rank on August 10, 2024, 03:28:18 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run?

If you are playing a single game you have a good chance to be fairly even over the long run in wins and losses, could swing on the side of wins if you are lucky. If you are playing a multi ticket the chances of winning is much lower over the long run.

- Jay -

If you're playing single odds, the probability of winning is slightly higher quite alright, but don't you for once think you're being overly optimistic? Thereby neglecting that the chances of losing big money is enormous compared to the scenario when games are combined. Most times the surest games disappoint, and the kind of funds used to straighten these single games takes away the fun when they are lost.

It's easier to handle with amounts you can afford to loose when you combine few games, the accumulated odds makes more sense and you're more comfortable staking with lower funds since the multipliers have made the potential winnings feasible and you can have your fun without pressure.

Solosanz

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on September 14, 2024, 05:23:51 AM

In fact, with odds of 1.9, the probability of winning is not 50% in sports betting, but 52.63%. This is the exact probability of winning with this odds. The probability of winning is calculated using the formula 100/odds. That is, if we divide 100 by 1.9, we get the figure 52.6315…%
At first glance, it may seem that this figure is close to the probability of 50%. But the difference is 2%. This is a fairly large difference in probabilities, which can be summed up in your strategy or subtracted from it in the long term, which can lead to very large wins or losses over the long term.
This difference must be taken into account in any case.

I don't think it's accurate.

You can try to calculate with the moneyline odds, there's a match I calculate both of the teams, when I sum both of the winning percentage, it doesn't reach 100% and sometime it bigger than 100%.

It should be odds 1/(odds 1+odds 2) or vice versa.

I think people shouldn't bet based on probability like team one has 52% win chance, another one is 48%, both of them are pretty much same, but their history, popularity and recent performance are different, so bettors can use this analysis to make a bet.

Julien_Olynpic

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In fact, with odds of 1.9, the probability of winning is not 50% in sports betting, but 52.63%. This is the exact probability of winning with this odds. The probability of winning is calculated using the formula 100/odds. That is, if we divide 100 by 1.9, we get the figure 52.6315…%
At first glance, it may seem that this figure is close to the probability of 50%. But the difference is 2%. This is a fairly large difference in probabilities, which can be summed up in your strategy or subtracted from it in the long term, which can lead to very large wins or losses over the long term.
This difference must be taken into account in any case.

rachael9385

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Quote from: Nwada001 on September 13, 2024, 04:07:19 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 13, 2024, 02:00:54 PM

I don't know how you did the math and concluded that 1.90 odd means 50% of winning but in sports betting probability is not even a thing it's just for measuring the odds nothing else.

There has always been a saying and argument about this, not just on 1.9 odds, but odds that are below 2 always have a higher chance of winning compared to when someone goes for higher odds.

It works most times, but not all the time; it's just a probability, which is why I believe the Op gave it a rating of 50/50 chances of winning. There are also times where those 1.9 odds will definitely be against the bettor, and the option with higher odds will play most times.

Actually it works but we don't have to trust the odds unless the games has been played according to how you predicted it.
Most times 2 odds plays more than odds below two, although it's just luck that can make the whole things work for the gambler. Sometimes the players in the game made the gamblers to win, because when the players are not performing well and they have lower odds they will probably lose their match and the gambler that bet on the club that the players are playing for will lose his or her bets. This is why gamblers have a 50% chance of winning on sport games than casino games, but the gambler still need luck to win on sport, and luck starts the moment the gambler is predicting the bets.

Nwada001

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Quote from: Findingnemo on September 13, 2024, 02:00:54 PM

I don't know how you did the math and concluded that 1.90 odd means 50% of winning but in sports betting probability is not even a thing it's just for measuring the odds nothing else.

There has always been a saying and argument about this, not just on 1.9 odds, but odds that are below 2 always have a higher chance of winning compared to when someone goes for higher odds.

It works most times, but not all the time; it's just a probability, which is why I believe the Op gave it a rating of 50/50 chances of winning. There are also times where those 1.9 odds will definitely be against the bettor, and the option with higher odds will play most times.

mv1986

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

I am quite sure that your question lacks logic and coherence. When you win 50% of the time while either losing 100% or winning 90%, how the hell would you make it into profits long term? It's simple maths here if you assume that these outcomes are a given at odds 1.9. The point is to find odds that you think are not accurately calculated by the bookmaker (to your advantage of course). When the bookmaker gives you 2.0, which basically means you can double your money, and your assessment is that winning has a chance of >50%, then in the very long term you would be profitable. If, as I said above, the chance for losing 100% is the same as winning 90% of your stakes, it's a path that guarantees you to lose money in the long run.

oll

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Quote from: Fortify on September 13, 2024, 03:27:18 PM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

If you're going to gamble on sports, you might as well aim to at least double up every go, it's a bit boring doing things like 1.1x where you have to win 10 times just to make 100% extra on your money. That is ten times that the bet could go the wrong way, because even the bookmaker is admitting that there is room for that bet not to win your money - if it was guaranteed then they would give you 0% odds. You also have to remember that the bookmaker will be adding in an extra buffer to every bet, so you're looking at a 1.9x bet, but the reality is the bookmaker thinks it is really worth 1.8x and have stuck an extra 0.1 safety margin on top that you'll never see - it's a hidden cost of doing business with them.

Winning 10 times at x1.1 is not as easy as many people think. On the contrary, I avoid such odds because I know what it leads to - a mandatory loss if you do it too often. Of course, you can do it without a break, but one day your luck will run out. The bookmaker will never lose, this is the main rule of betting, so I can never be sure that my winning streak will continue. And even if we win and leave, we can come back and leave all the winnings back, because rarely does anyone quit gambling completely.

Fortify

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

If you're going to gamble on sports, you might as well aim to at least double up every go, it's a bit boring doing things like 1.1x where you have to win 10 times just to make 100% extra on your money. That is ten times that the bet could go the wrong way, because even the bookmaker is admitting that there is room for that bet not to win your money - if it was guaranteed then they would give you 0% odds. You also have to remember that the bookmaker will be adding in an extra buffer to every bet, so you're looking at a 1.9x bet, but the reality is the bookmaker thinks it is really worth 1.8x and have stuck an extra 0.1 safety margin on top that you'll never see - it's a hidden cost of doing business with them.

Findingnemo

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Probability of winning a bet has nothing to do with the streaks of bets cause the probability resets for every new bet so anything happened before that bet become irrelevant to the scenario.

I don't know how you did the math and concluded that 1.90 odd means 50% of winning but in sports betting probability is not even a thing it's just for measuring the odds nothing else.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: Distinctin on August 19, 2024, 04:16:01 AM

Quote from: sompitonov on August 19, 2024, 04:08:06 AM

Quote from: Distinctin on August 18, 2024, 08:41:04 AM

Quote from: sompitonov on August 18, 2024, 08:09:13 AM

In general, I have never liked odds below 1 and I prefer to take more risk. But at the same time, I see how even more players bet on small odds to win at least something, but with a higher probability. But sometimes later I see threads in which a player complains that he lost with odds of 1.1 Grin

They may enjoy more wins with lower odds due to the high probability of winning, but if they look at the big picture, they'll see that it's not profitable. I would rather go for the 50-50 market offered by the bookies, avoid parlays, and limit the number of bets so I can maintain my focus.

Sports betting doesn't need to take up much of our time. If we aim to win, we need to focus, and since we're only human and don't have an extreme ability to multitask, we should prioritize the quality of our bets.

I also prefer quality in betting instead of quantity, because if you chase quantity, you can lose concentration and we will spend a lot of time on a quality analysis of the event. And what is most important is that this time and effort spent may not bring profit, it is not like a regular job where we will definitely get money for our actions. You can bet for years, but no one guarantees profit here, although many players come here specifically for profit and think that they will always have it as income, but this is a misconception.

50/50 looks like an excellent solution, you just need to determine some subtle points. I do not place express bets, because I also believe that they should be avoided.

My strategy is very simple: I focus on a limited number of games. For example, when betting on NBA games, there might be 8 to 10 games in a day, but I only choose a maximum of 4 games to carefully study and analyze. I would be happy getting 3 wins out of 4 because that's already a good percentage if I can maintain that consistently. Of course, bankroll management cannot be neglected because all the effort we put in from the very beginning will be wasted if we start chasing losses due to a lack of self-control.

Your explanation is good but you should also admit that it's based on assumptions, if it were to be real, then it is a foolproof plan that will surely help you earn every time. But as we know gambling, regardless of what you are betting, you can never be making the 3 out of 4 games win, that's the reality.

For this, there is no way it will not affect the management which is why I would have considered it better in terms of having the factor of safety. If I were you, I would base my risk management on the premise that out of a whole 4 games, I would win just 1.5, this alone has covered enough for you in terms of risk management and mind preparation and if you are good and win more, it will be an added advantage because the risk management will even be better rather than preparing less for it.

Topic: 1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 2. (Read 1240 times)