1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 6.

Wapfika

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Quote from: Z_MBFM on August 10, 2024, 09:52:40 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Gambling is based on luck if you are lucky you can win regularly but if your luck is bad you can lose at 1.1 odds. no one can guarantee gambling winnings. Many people use odds of 1.1 or less as a sure bet, but even here there is risk. So I don't think anyone can have long term success with 1.9 Odd. When you bet on gambling you must be able to afford to lose that amount of bet money and accept it freely. no one can give you a guaranteed winning tip on this. so you have to decide on your own responsibility. But one thing I can say is that the less odds you use, the more chances you have of winning

It’s different if we talk about sports betting since there’s a sports analysis which you can compare to technical analysis on trading that improved the winning rate of bets depending on your skills.

Luck is indeed a huge factor on sports betting but skills can improve your winning rate without relying that much on luck. There’s some successful sports bettor that manage to have a high win rate with their bets through their analysis skills.

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That means the house have a 10% house edge, that's a huge Fee to place a bet and a terrible idea. Casinos give the rules but are the gamblers who decide if betting or not.

Win in the long run betting on those odds isn't easy because sports are weird, there are too many factors that can change the game result, and if the odds are close to x2 that means the 2 teams have almost the same chance, and that way your chance to win is the same than flip a coin and win.

My recommendation has always been to bet on the underdog, that way if you win you will walk away with some nice profit bigger than x2.

Z_MBFM

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Gambling is based on luck if you are lucky you can win regularly but if your luck is bad you can lose at 1.1 odds. no one can guarantee gambling winnings. Many people use odds of 1.1 or less as a sure bet, but even here there is risk. So I don't think anyone can have long term success with 1.9 Odd. When you bet on gambling you must be able to afford to lose that amount of bet money and accept it freely. no one can give you a guaranteed winning tip on this. so you have to decide on your own responsibility. But one thing I can say is that the less odds you use, the more chances you have of winning

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Definitely not gonna be profitable in the long run since 10% house edge is too huge to beat in long term. It’s better to play slot games rather than play with consistent 10% house edge since most of the slot games offer 4% or lower house edge if we are just talking about long term betting.

But ofc this varies on the skills of the gamblers on sports betting but assuming your hypothetical scenario which is just betting with 50/50 chance bet then I doubt this will be good in the long run.

Ultegra134

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Even if we suppose that the chances of winning is exactly 50%, which aren't, if you take into account the house edge, it will still not mean that if you place 20 bets, 10 will be victorious and the other 10 will be losses. That's not how probabilities work, and you'll eventually run out of money if you're placing bets with that mindset. Even if you lower the odds, thus, increase your winning percentage, you still won't be able to replicate what statistically may sound possible, in real life.

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Quote from: DaNNy001 on August 10, 2024, 03:27:28 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Everyone has different targets and strategies in sports betting ,some people aim to get 2 odds or probably lower than that on a weekly or daily basis, the lower the odds the chances of it playing out is quite high but this doesn't guarantee a hundred percent successful outcome. I have played single games lower than 1.50 odds that turned out to be unsuccessful. Following this kind of strategy can be quite helpful but you can't always have winning streaks

even though sometimes we are very sure to win with smaller Odds, but indeed sports betting is not always predictable. gamblers who are very sure of their bets sometimes forget something their bets on small Odds will make a small return. so they hastily increase the bet which also increases the risk.
you are right, the strategy of betting on smaller Odds may increase the chances of winning. but not always and rarely will get a winning streak.

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

One thing we should all know about gambling is that winning is never a permanent assurance, as it is what comes by luck, because for the fact that you were able to win with a odd of 1.90 or less, it doesn't mean you will always win, because I have seen many scenarios whereby people lose bet of odds 1.30 and even 1.10, and likewise I have also seen the reverse of people also winning games of high odds such as 5 to 10 odds as a result of luck and an addiction of skills. Hence, while gambling with odds of 1.9 or below, we should always bear in mind that we have 60% of chance to win and also 40% of chance to also lose our bet, which is a more reason why we all need to gamble responsibly.

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Smaller odds indicate that your chances of winning are also stronger. Can using this method make you successful in the long term? of course, if luck is always on your side, the problem with gambling is about being lucky and not, look at how Argentina got such small odds when they faced Saudi Arabia in WC 2022, what was the result of the match? Argentina lost 1 - 2 to Saudi Arabia in that match.

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 10, 2024, 05:39:34 AM

Quote from: Maslate on August 10, 2024, 02:29:43 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 10, 2024, 02:12:55 AM

This is not accurate. The 1.90 is given to you by the house when it calculates that there is a 50% probability that you will win. Those calculations are not exact. It is not like in roulette that if you play red or black you have a 47.37% chance of winning (in American roulette). That's exact.

Probability in sports betting is not like in roulette, where the odds are based on fixed probabilities. In sports betting, the odds are merely predictions set by bookmakers, which means they can sometimes be over- or undervalued.

May I know why you are quoting me? In the first part you repeat what I said, and in the second part you seem to want to dispute what I said by stating something false.

Where in that part are you referring to as "something false"? You don't agree that odds can sometimes be overvalued or undervalued?

Quote from: Poker Player on August 10, 2024, 05:39:34 AM

Quote from: Maslate on August 10, 2024, 02:29:43 AM

Sticking with 1.90 odds gives you a disadvantage of 10% every time you bet, so your winning chance should be 60% or more to make a profit, assuming you manage your bankroll effectively.

It definitely does not give you a 10% disadvantage in each bet.

What I understood is that when spreads are presented like Team A +5 vs. Team B -5 and both have odds of 1.90, you're effectively losing 10% because you'll only get 90% in return. Assuming this is a 50-50 chance, like a heads-or-tails game, where you're only paid 90% every time you win, there's no way you can come out ahead in the long run.

You're right in specifying that a 53% win rate is needed for 1.90 odds to be profitable, but I was just referencing the 60% mentioned in the OP for the sake of discussion.

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Quote from: _act_ on August 10, 2024, 06:07:21 AM

Quote from: mindrust on August 10, 2024, 05:50:58 AM

There is a hidden ToS rule that every casino has: You are not allowed to beat the house.

As long as you accept this reality and still play, everybody will be happy. If you can’t take that and try to win either by cheating or fooling their algo; sooner or later they will lock your account.

What I think is that the gambling site will look for a way to make sure the gamblers still lose without blocking his account. Gambling sites learn from people. If they see that people are winning more with one of their selections, they make amendment in a way that gamblers will later be losing. That is just how they operate. To look for ways most gamblers will lose. If gamblers are making money, gambling business will collapse.

What kind of amendments will they make? This isn’t a casino where they control the game; it’s sports betting where games are broadcast live, and everyone can see. The odds offered are also similar to those offered by other sportsbook, so I’m curious how they’ll amend things to make it in their favor?

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Quote from: mindrust on August 10, 2024, 05:50:58 AM

There is a hidden ToS rule that every casino has: You are not allowed to beat the house.

As long as you accept this reality and still play, everybody will be happy. If you can’t take that and try to win either by cheating or fooling their algo; sooner or later they will lock your account.

What I think is that the gambling site will look for a way to make sure the gamblers still lose without blocking his account. Gambling sites learn from people. If they see that people are winning more with one of their selections, they make amendment in a way that gamblers will later be losing. That is just how they operate. To look for ways most gamblers will lose. If gamblers are making money, gambling business will collapse.

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No it is not certain that with the range of odd one can win constantly because I've also came across a post we have someone bet 1.4 million on a 1.08 odds and still lose the bet. This is to show that even the lowest odd does not guarantee winning but what matters is if your prediction is right most time or does not count to your winning but people would say that lesser odds guarantee's winning.

If judging by that post which that user made, a bet of 1.008 odd and stake 1.4 million dollars this could have shown that even the least odd can't guarantee winning for long run, but when a prediction is exacted to what you bet then there is every chances of winning, and of course you can win that continuously but we should also know about how matches are played most times and it would go against our bet.

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There is a hidden ToS rule that every casino has: You are not allowed to beat the house.

As long as you accept this reality and still play, everybody will be happy. If you can’t take that and try to win either by cheating or fooling their algo; sooner or later they will lock your account.

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

A 1.90 odds in gambling long term would lead you to lose 5% of total amount you have bet. That's math and probability. No one is winning even with 1.99 in long run.
But for something different like a sports bet or a game of poker against real people, You can make have your skill work to make you win. Games like Poker favors the experienced and skilled ones. It's not always the cards that makes you win in Poker.
Similarly in sports bet, the general opinion and head to head stats might decide the odds but you can have special talent to determine the things that other people can't notice which would effect the result of the game. Your analysis might be better than others and in that case, you can easily turn a 1.9 odds to a winning strategy.

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

When it comes to gambling you can really estimate the exact winning percentage Because nothing is actually safe, I came across a tweet about a guy that placed a bet of 10 million naira on 1.10 odds , and that was just one game he ended up losing that money
Sometimes it's good to have a strategy in betting but always remember that luck is a major factor, if a little odd like 1.10 could go sideways how much more 1.90.. gambling is always 50/50 odds doesn't really matter

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Quote from: Maslate on August 10, 2024, 02:29:43 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 10, 2024, 02:12:55 AM

This is not accurate. The 1.90 is given to you by the house when it calculates that there is a 50% probability that you will win. Those calculations are not exact. It is not like in roulette that if you play red or black you have a 47.37% chance of winning (in American roulette). That's exact.

Probability in sports betting is not like in roulette, where the odds are based on fixed probabilities. In sports betting, the odds are merely predictions set by bookmakers, which means they can sometimes be over- or undervalued.

May I know why you are quoting me? In the first part you repeat what I said, and in the second part you seem to want to dispute what I said by stating something false.

Quote from: Maslate on August 10, 2024, 02:29:43 AM

Sticking with 1.90 odds gives you a disadvantage of 10% every time you bet, so your winning chance should be 60% or more to make a profit, assuming you manage your bankroll effectively.

It definitely does not give you a 10% disadvantage in each bet. Surely you are one of those who write here but you have never bet in your life, let alone made a serious calculation. It definitely does not give you a 10% disadvantage in each bet. Surely you are one of those who write here but you have never bet in your life, let alone made a serious calculation. If you are getting $1.90 for every $1, you only need a 53% long term hit rate to make it profitable.

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Quote from: Solosanz on August 10, 2024, 04:34:20 AM

That's why I don't really looking to bet at exact odds over and over, instead I choose to bet on underdog and only bet on the team that which I think has high chance to pull upsets. Betting 1.90 odds in the long run will make you loss since the risk and reward isn't 50/50.

While betting on underdog, I'm not looking for the money in long run, but whenever I win, I'm happy and the reward is big.

That seems like a solid strategy because underdogs do offer great odds, and even if you win 50% of the time, you can still guarantee a profit. However, not all underdogs will win, so it’s important to be careful when choosing your bets. The key is to focus on quality rather than the quantity of bets. Bookies won’t offer 2.00 odds for a 50% probability because they need to stay profitable as well. They facilitate the betting, so they deserve to take a cut to continue their operations. That’s the concept behind 1.90 odds, where 10% goes to the juice.

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Actually it will not guarantee victory because the odd given to the team with a lower number indicates that the team has an advantage such as being the host or bigger team.
Basically the results in sports match cannot be determined with certainty who will be the winner, especially if only look at the chances then it is very ridiculous.

Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

So far I have never seen gambler who does all that by achieving long-term success, moreover achieving success from gambling is impossible even though it is overall from sports betting.
Gamblers who bet only by relying on the chances or odds given by the bookie are gamblers who are quite stupid because they will only lose money periodically.

Solosanz

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That's why I don't really looking to bet at exact odds over and over, instead I choose to bet on underdog and only bet on the team that which I think has high chance to pull upsets. Betting 1.90 odds in the long run will make you loss since the risk and reward isn't 50/50.

While betting on underdog, I'm not looking for the money in long run, but whenever I win, I'm happy and the reward is big.

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Quote from: freedomgo on August 10, 2024, 02:07:54 AM

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

You understand that everything depends on the player, if he is able to win more often than lose, then he will have a profit.

But I would like to ask, why exactly the coefficient of 1.9 was taken, why not 2, or 3? )

In fact, you can substitute different odds, but what is more important is not odds (although this also matters), but your statistics of winning bets in the long term. Every player who wants to earn money in gambling should keep statistics of each bet to see how much he managed to win. Let's say how much he managed to win from 100 bets? This is a good enough number to understand how successful you are as a player and, accordingly, you can calculate your success with different odds. And then only calculations, if you can win 60 bets out of 100, then there is a chance to be with a profit, if more than half of the bets are losing, then either you need to increase the odds, and try again, or it will not be easy for you to earn money on bets.

Topic: 1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 6. (Read 1246 times)