Topic: 1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 5. (Read 1331 times)

I highly agree!  I believe the chance of winning on the 1.90 odds is not dependent on the odds alone.  Even if it has more than 50% chance of winning theoretically, there are other factors that affect the result of the match like the condition of the team or athlete on the day of the fight, the unknown factor that can affect the result of the game and more.

At the end of the day, the actual chance of winning is dependent on how a bettor assesses the possible outcome of the game and not the given odds by the bookmaker.  So it is still not sure whether betting on these odds will be profitable in the long run unless we can precisely predict the outcome of the game.

As a gambler, I will not just fully rely on this kind of odds, if this is only your basis to place your bet, I don't think it will make you profitable, you need to consider a lot of things, for example in the NBA games, like the players line up, injury reports, home court advantage, etc.

I think you are right but an average odd of 1.9 is still achievable but the danger is that in trying to get it, one might add more combinations that will increase the risk of the game. I have been in a situation whereby I was chasing 2 odds per bet which I planned to compound until I achieve a target. Some days I will have some reliable games but not up to the odds I want so I will have to add other games that end up spoiling my bet. There is indeed a big burden in playing a fixed odds because some flexibility is really needed some times to be able to win.

In games where it's uncertain who will win, bookies are unlikely to give 1.9 to both parties. I think it would be more realistic to see 1.75 or something. The reality is that bookies don't want to take any risks. Plus it's easy that with a bit of intuition some people might be good at picking the right result more than 50% of the time.

So for any match with two possible outcomes, it's very often to see both parties at odds under 1.9. bookies actually have a higher edge than most gambling games if you calculate it. At 0% edge both ends should have 2.0 odds.

You don't bet on just one type of probability, in fact you can't bet the same on a probability of 1.5 as on a probability of 1.9, that is, it's a combination of both, so at the end of the month what you're interested in is seeing a positive result.

There are many combinations that can be made in terms of bet size vs. estimated probability, so that when one fails it compensates with the gain of the other. That improves your chances of winning better than thinking of just one type of probability like the one you mention.

For 1.95 decimal/european odds it's the same computation.
You need to have an Expected Value of 0 at least, to not lose money, and above 0 to make profits (in the long run).
EV = 1.95 x WC - 1 = 0
WC = 1 / 1.95
WC = 0.513 = 51.3%
You would need to win more than 51.3% of the time

Betting on odds of 2.00 won't change the vig if the real winning chances are below 50%.
You can see it on the Multiply BTC game of Freebitcoin for example.
If you put 2.00 odds your winning chances will fall to 47.5%

So for example, if the real winning chances are 30%, you will double your stake when you win with 2.00 odds, but you will lose 70% of the time.
When you only have 2 outcomes, and the two are of 2.00, you are at least sure that if one is a bad value bet the other is a good one. So randomly, you won't lose money in the long run.

Most of the successful sports bettor usually pick a lower odds since most of the pick that most likely win are those below 1.9 odds. We are considering the long term probability here so I’m skeptical if someone can manage to win long term with consistently taking 1.9 odds since it’s already more on luck based game due to pick involved are nearly close to each either when it comes to win rate.

Successful bettor in long run frequently choose a pick that has higher winning rate and just use the parlay or combo bets to increase the odds instead of consistently taking 1.9 odds or an almost even match.

Your example is about moneyline bets. Naturally, you can't get the odds you're looking for if you only bet on moneyline bets. You can only get a 50-50 chance from bookies if you're betting on the point spread and its total, but this doesn't apply to every market. As in your example, if the moneyline odds for one side are already 1.90, you can't get 1.90 on the other side anymore since that's what the bookies are offering.

You need to choose the games you bet on carefully, making sure the teams aren't equally matched. For instance, if Team A is the heavy favorite with a moneyline of 1.50, you might get -4.5 at 1.90 odds and +4.5 on the other side with the same odds when betting on the point spread.

This gives the bookie you're playing at 10% wiggle room to keep a head over you. Even if you're above average, chances are that in the long run you won't be able to keep up with winning over 50% of bets. Let alone the fact that 1.9 odds aren't common in sports where there's only 2 possible outcomes as win/loss for a team. 1.9 is common in soccer where there can also be a draw in normal time but you shouldn't consider the odds of winning 50% because the chance of a draw is always there.

So in a game like basketball or tennis where either of the two has to win and a draw isn't a possibility odds of 1.9 don't actually mean 50%.
Let me give an example:



This is a table tennis match that is upcoming. The players aren't internationally famous and the league is just the Czech liga. It's hard to make predictions for such a sport and league because not many people are very knowledgeable in it so bookies employ some very rudimentary statistics to give initial odds before the match starts.

You can see one player has odds slightly above 1.9 while the other has odds closer to 1.7. You see now. It's safe to assume the casino considers the second player having better win chances than 50%, yet they give odds much lower than 2 or even 1.9. So for you to be afforded odds of 1.9 in an outcome that's either a loss/win scenario, you aren't betting on the likely winner. Just consider this when making decisions. You'd have to be really good and selective at making picks in such sports to keep winning with 1.9 odds.

That does not align with my bankroll management principles. I would rather stick with a certain percentage of the wager, as it will increase the amount once my bankroll grows. I just want to make a simple strategy that works, and odds like 1.90 and lower don’t seem to work for me based on my experience. Experts mention that we just need to achieve 53%, and while that's right, which is easier: lowering the winning percentage and increasing the odds, or the opposite?

It's possible to win while maintaining a 50% win rate if you adjust your units per bet instead of betting a fixed amount. Then again it'll be challenging to have an average odds of 1.90 because they tend to shift a lot of the time based on certain factors, but that doesn't always mean your chances of winning goes up or down. For example, the public and sharp bettors can move the odds from the opening until kickoff and adjust the underdog odds from 2.10 to 1.90 throughout the day.

If we are considering the sportsbetting, there is high chance because low odds are deemed to be the potential winner of that match. It means, they are strong contenders in that game. However, do remember, upset can always happen in any sports. But to say, most of the time, low odds has good chance of happening, then I can agree in that opinion. But you still have to keep up yourself with the game as there will be hints of injury or coaching technique that can influence the results of the game.

Well, I guess you are correct with your computation, but winning 52.6% to be profitable is still not easy. If we can bet on odds like 1.95 every time, do you have a computation for that? How many percent should I achieve to win in the long run, or might as well make sure to bet on odds 2.00 just to ensure that on our wins, we won't be paying the vig anymore.

it's definitely gonna cut it most of the times as smaller odds are likely to win against bigger odds... But all the same, when the selections are more than 1, the probability of winning decreases from 85% to atleast 67% ... That's just enough to cut most of tickets and trash them!
Technically, yes! It depends on what you call success... Personally, I don't see success to be an everyday meal game - I don't even wanna win 50% of the times I gamble... As long as it's always a heavy return for each time.

Winning always remains a thing of luck mostly when it's gambling, if it's casino games, forget it, you can almost never out weigh the house but to hope you get a better chance some day but literally the house has got almost 70% edge most of the times and they give you a chance and not you giving them na edge, I know talking certain risk at times may look like giving them the edge but mostly they have got the edge most times.

No odds guarantees a win or a loss, they are just luck based most of the times, this is what I always keep in mind before placing a bet and for me it's been the reality. Even with top skill you still loose some times. The reason some persons take certain risk with so much confidence on their side believing they will win is mainly because of history.

No, you're wrong 1.90 in decimal odds for 50% winning chances doesn't give a 10% edge to the house (or to the bookmaker here). That's what Freebitcoin is offering for its dice game for example, it's only 5% HE actually.
And since there are 2 outcomes (one for winning, the other for losing), you only need to overcome half of this house edge to not lose money.  

EV = 1.90 x 50% - 1= -0.05 = -5%



In order to not lose money you need to have an EV >= 0

EV = 1.90 x WC - 1 >= 0
=> WC >= 1 / 1.90
   WC >= 0.526 = 52.6%

It means you will make profits if you win more than 52.6% of times bets with 1.90 odds.

I would say a 50 percent chance of winning with such odds is difficult. Moreover, if one bets on the same odds for a long period of time, there is doubt as to whether he will be able to increase his winnings there. I have doubts about whether the bet will be 50 percent in 50-50 positions. We have even seen many instances where even with odds of 1.10 cents the bet is not guaranteed to win and having 1.90 odds means there is a 50 percent chance that I will never be able to secure my bet. The lower the odds in gambling, the higher the chance of winning, but there is no guarantee. The outcome may change at any time.

Win win win, yes. 1.90 gives you a little edge you may think, but in sports betting, that odd is already a good multiplier when joined with other games and staked, but I've my reservations on staking such odds alone because you'll have to increase your staking power in order to see some kind of a tangible profit, and what happens when you loose, you lose big.

I think there's more impact in losing than winning with such low odds in a single stake, if we go down to our calculations, possibly I stake $1000 on a 1.90 odds with a possibility of winning $900 and also at the same time a possibility of losing the $1000. So you see, the loss is greater than the amount tho be gained and that's why I love combining more games to get a good figure to go with a lower stake.

Winning is never assured, so you don't throw it all in at once.

This is not sustainable on the long run since the chances of succes and failure are equal. It will be a matter of time before you get drained. To be profitable, you need at least odds of at least 3. This will make it possible to remain profitable even with the 50% win rate. I know some people are arguing that 2.0 odds is the right number, unfortunately, that will be like moving round the same cycle. For instance, you place ten $50 bets of 2 odds each and at the end you win five bets, this will give a total bet amount of $500, and total winning of $500 which is what I mean by turning round the same circle.
 

There is no guarantee that choosing 1.90 or lower will increase your chances of winning to 50%,  gambling is a game of probability, and your confidence should be built on the strategy you are deploying not on the odds, because odds are like straps set up to cut you out, if you decide to follow it entirely without proper vetting. However in a long run, you can by chance win with those odds, but you shouldn't be settling down on them, as winning odds are not always constant.