Topic: 1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning. - page 3. (Read 1331 times)

If you're going to gamble on sports, you might as well aim to at least double up every go, it's a bit boring doing things like 1.1x where you have to win 10 times just to make 100% extra on your money. That is ten times that the bet could go the wrong way, because even the bookmaker is admitting that there is room for that bet not to win your money - if it was guaranteed then they would give you 0% odds. You also have to remember that the bookmaker will be adding in an extra buffer to every bet, so you're looking at a 1.9x bet, but the reality is the bookmaker thinks it is really worth 1.8x and have stuck an extra 0.1 safety margin on top that you'll never see - it's a hidden cost of doing business with them.

Probability of winning a bet has nothing to do with the streaks of bets cause the probability resets for every new bet so anything happened before that bet become irrelevant to the scenario.

I don't know how you did the math and concluded that 1.90 odd means 50% of winning but in sports betting probability is not even a thing it's just for measuring the odds nothing else.

Your explanation is good but you should also admit that it's based on assumptions, if it were to be real, then it is a foolproof plan that will surely help you earn every time. But as we know gambling, regardless of what you are betting, you can never be making the 3 out of 4 games win, that's the reality.

For this, there is no way it will not affect the management which is why I would have considered it better in terms of having the factor of safety. If I were you, I would base my risk management on the premise that out of a whole 4 games, I would win just 1.5, this alone has covered enough for you in terms of risk management and mind preparation and if you are good and win more, it will be an added advantage because the risk management will even be better rather than preparing less for it.

I don't think we can have a clear percentage on how much successful a certain odd can be in a sport betting. That is very easy to proof as normally an odd as low as 1.20 should be able to be a winner in 5 out of 6 bets and we know this not to be the case as we can see in tennis,basketball and soccer to name a few. So we cannot really make calculations in percentages regarding sport betting. It is difficult to win nowadays as injuries and referees can make your sport bet go the wrongest way possible.

The lower the odds the higher the chance of winning but the tricky part to this is that nothing is safe or guaranteed in sports betting, we have seen odds as low as 1.01 ending up badly. Gamblers play odds of less than 2 odds and try to rollover for a month or more than that, everyone into sports betting has thought of this but 90 percent of us have failed because there's no way to always be in profit and have a winning streak for up to 30 days no matter how small the odds are. I actually prefer not to go below or above 2 odds I find it reasonable to aim for 100 percent return of my stake and if it doesn't work out as planned I know it's all risky

Stick into the sports on which you do really know that you do have that sufficient knowledge or really having that kind of awareness on what it is rather than on testing or betting out on sports on which you dont really even know. If its for the sake of diversifying your bankroll bets then its something that will bring out that huge devastation into your overall bankroll on which means that its not really that recommendable at all.
It will really be that bringing out that huge loses or will blown up your capital. Speaking about odds then 1.90 doesnt give out that fix 50% chance. Even if we do say 2x or more then it will really be not something
definite or fixed. Chances of winning will really be that affected by different factors on which it could really be happening along the way. So it would really be that on your personal preference and choices.

The key on here is that you should really be playing on sports on which you are knowledgeable, not only just that giving out that good chance on winning but also you would really be finding this to be that
interesting or something that gives out thrill because you do know the sports in compared into those things on which you dont know on what it is, then it will really be giving out that
kind of no emotion or no excitement because this isnt really that your line.

Yes ofcourse, I have come to know that the lower odds are not always more fruitful.
Sometimes it's better to bet on the one with higher odds because you might just end up winning it easily.
You're right that more analysis is needed when we are betting on sports. We can't take it for granted.
Talking about traps, have you encountered such traps earlier ?

It is good to have the opportunity to choose from such a number of games in one game day and your tactics will hopefully bring you a good percentage of victories on the long path of betting in the NBA. In general, in almost every sport there comes a time when major tournaments take place and the number of games per day allows us to choose between those in which we are very confident. Of course, if we have arguments to bet more on other matches, then we can even increase this number, the main thing is that it does not interfere with our win rate. Of course, in addition to this, we need to monitor the bankroll as you mentioned, well, and other things. If in general everything is done very thoughtfully and carefully, even if we often do not have luck, our percentage of losses should be less than that of other players who play these rules.

Sounds like a great plan, I agree. A dream for people who can control themselves while they bet or gamble, for sure

Such a brilliant strategy, if most gamblers can keep greed aside and try to follow a model such as this, their chances of stay profitable is definitely going to be high and consistently making profit more often than they loss. This strategy you have spoken about entails a whole lot of greed management because for a greedy fellow this may look too small as the odds too may not look appealing to them either but for a very disciplined and calculative gambler, this model is a great one as the probability with this model is high and even while suffering loss you can still be profitable if you had made some profit before the losses.

Um? Didn't you just answer your own question? We obviously CAN win but in long term it's very unlikely. Even with 2.0 odds and 50% change of winning, there's 50% change of being in loss, and by removing 10% outcome should be pretty clear. It's not complex statistics.

Infact it's so unlikely to make long term profit that casinos don't need other then way smaller house edge to make profit. This is why i find it funny when some people are blaming fixed games for losing. Admitting that they can't do math is just too embarassing for them.

Short answer to your question is no, but why else would we be gambling, if we wouldn't like to believe in luck? If we would just look at probablility and math behind the house edge, we  most likely wouldn't play, as that's not profitable in a long run. But that's a boring way to look at things and gambling is all about excitement.

My strategy is very simple: I focus on a limited number of games. For example, when betting on NBA games, there might be 8 to 10 games in a day, but I only choose a maximum of 4 games to carefully study and analyze. I would be happy getting 3 wins out of 4 because that's already a good percentage if I can maintain that consistently. Of course, bankroll management cannot be neglected because all the effort we put in from the very beginning will be wasted if we start chasing losses due to a lack of self-control.

I also prefer quality in betting instead of quantity, because if you chase quantity, you can lose concentration and we will spend a lot of time on a quality analysis of the event. And what is most important is that this time and effort spent may not bring profit, it is not like a regular job where we will definitely get money for our actions. You can bet for years, but no one guarantees profit here, although many players come here specifically for profit and think that they will always have it as income, but this is a misconception.

50/50 looks like an excellent solution, you just need to determine some subtle points. I do not place express bets, because I also believe that they should be avoided.

I am with you here. It's everybody's choice to make a bet like that, with a twist to it that it may not go through. Analysis is key, as well as the cool head being on your shoulders while doing it.

Blackjack is indeed the best when you will play it properly by the standard strategy. It has the lowest house edge while the payout on Blackjack is over x2 while you have the chance to double down your bet once the dealer has low card for a much higher profit.

Other games doesn’t offer this payout structure and just stick to the ratio and proportion of risk to payout with less payout due to house edge.

Its a numbers game, and if you dont understand the numbers, you're playing right into the bookmakers' hands.

Offering you 1.90 chances, they are not indicating a 50/50 chance. Your actual chances aresometimes reduced as they are building in a profit for themselves. You really ought to be smarter than that.

Thinking you can win 60% of the time when the odds are stacked against you is delusional. That is ignorance instead of confidence. You must have a plan and thorough knowledge of how the market operates if you are to challenge the system. And let me say, most people simply lack that.

This is about intelligence not about chance. Moreover, you would be better off saving your money in your pocket if you are not ready to commit the effort. The house always wins unless you are wiser than it is. And that is a hefty order as well.

It’s really hard to win in long term with this odds while the match is graded as even. You are losing 10% of your potential profit which is supposed to be x2 on an even match. It’s better to bet on matches that has a side with clear advantage or an underdog that has potential to reverse the result for a much better higher profitability.

I’d rather bet on Blackjack with a chance to get a x2.5 payout when Blackjack with same 50% chance of winning compared to a match that is considered as 50 chance winning while the payout is below 2.0.

It's hard to bet on those odds because it can also be the other way around. I think it's too risky for me to bet unless I know what I'm betting on and it feels like it's going to be a good match or outcome.

Realistically, it's not always going to be a long-term win. It's hard when I see it mathematically.

To some extent the 1.9 odds does stand to be at 50% probability of coming to happen, especially that these odds are dynamic in the sense that one second it can be 1.9 odds the next could be either 10 odds or 1.01 odds depending on whether your selection is winning or losing!

Am pretty sure OP is trying to say these odds have a 50% chance of happening...say thing as 1.01 odds ...it's these odds were sure bets people would have been taking them all day, everyday to download free money!! But for anybody trying to grow their bankroll faster or break even I think these are healthy odds imo.

We need to carefully analyze our bets and not fully rely on the odds. If we automatically assume that odds of 1.50 mean a sure win, we’re likely to lose easily. In popular events or games that attract a lot of bettors, bookies might offer lower odds that seem attractive, but sometimes it turns out to be just a trap. I believe these ideas aren't often discussed with beginners, but once you consistently gamble on sports and join various forums, you’ll come across theories that might make you think they have some truth to them. This can help you become more cautious with your decisions, so you don't easily fall into traps when you see odds that are too attractive or hard to resist.