Based on BFLs own statement "The BitForce processor card is a proprietary implementation of both FPGA and ASIC technology", I'm almost certain what they use is what Altera calls "HardCopy" and what Xilinx calls "EasyPath", namely a FPGA design converted into an ASIC. Such a conversion costs "only" about 300 grand or so and pays for itself once you sell, say, 5,000 ASICs (which, in BFL's case, translates to a mere 2,500 boxes, and, assuming an average of 2.5 boxes purchased per customer, into a mere 1,000 customers). (Disclaimer: I have pre-ordered four singles at this point, so maybe LESS than 1,000 individual customers suffice to make this profitable.)
Altera/Xilinx tend to give their HardCopy/EasyPath customers optimistic projections on the power consumption and maximum clock rate, which a HardCopy/EasyPath customer (BFL in this case) tends to believe (after all, it's Altera/Xilinx saying this) and pass on to their retail customers.
Which is exactly what happened! It's a fairly common mistake to make and not a big deal. Some people went all ape-shit over this here, but underestimating the power draw and overestimating the maximum clock rate is really a fairly common mistake.
Thus, based on the pictures that seem to show an Altera device, its quite safe to assume that what we have here is an Altera HardCopy implementation of an Altera FPGA.
I doubt it. I think the blend of ASIC & FPGA is just marketing double speak. It has a USB controller which is an ASIC thus it does use "ASIC technology".
Power draw on a sASIC is about 1/3rd LESS than a comparable FPGA. We have seen FPGA solutions getting 22 MH/W. One would expect 30 to 40 MH/W from an sASIC. The product as last tested as ~10MH/W roughly half the performance (in MH/W) of an 40/45nm FPGA.
While power draw varies it doesn't vary that much. The other thing that doesn't fit (as discussed in the original thread) is the lead time for an sASIC is 90 to 120 days.
So timeline works something like this:
1 ) Build board using FPGA
2 ) Test it (not simulations an ACTUAL functional board), tweak it, test it, tweak it, test it tweak it.
3 ) Run endurance tests, possibly get an outside party under NDA to perform some testing.
4 ) Once investors are satisfied the product is ready have THAT FINAL DESIGN taped out for sASIC.
5 ) Wait up to 120 days for your test run (usually a fractional wafer).
6 ) Have assembly house build a "few" boards based on the test run.
7 ) Verify it is performing as speced.
8 ) Ok the main million dollar+ production run and wait another 30 to 90 days.
9 ) Build production units based on production run sASIC.
That timeline doesn't fit the events at BFL. Had it been a sASIC they would have had a 100% functional (except prohibitively expensive) prototype 6 months before the sASIC run was ever finished. Likely a half dozen protoypes.
One final thing is BFL indicates the product came be used for other applications w/ a different "firmware" (bitstream?). That isn't possible with an sASIC. A sASIC Bitcoin miner wouldn't be useful for anything else. Once masked out its function can never be changed.
I agree it is likely an Altera but IMHO the Occams razor answer is it is 65nm FPGA. Power draw is about double for 65nm vs 40nm and that is what we see. 40nm Spartan-6 gets 22MH/W. BFL mystery chip gets 10 MH/W. Alterra is rolling out 28nm tech and likely has a lot of old product to dump. If BFL has industry connections they could scoop an "deal" you will never see advertised anywhere.