Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 8. (Read 26015 times)

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.




No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

You are free to believe whomever you like. Many people here post based on their "personal experience and study"; some elaborate more, while others do less. Oldtimers tell you not to panic, you are free to ignore them, and follow newcomers coming from stock markets, who treat Bitcon like every other regular asset they have traded before... Regarding OP being the first to warn you about the price crash - well, internet was full of doom predictions for BTC back in December. The famous "bubble burst" graph (posted a lot by OP in this thread) was spread all over bloomberg-like media.

Some people like to trust any information handed to them in well-rounded "scientific" form with a lot of graphs, theory and links. Its pretty good tactics - show some analysis and make some well-grounded statements, so people believe you, and then add some disguised disinformation (paid for or not). The method is widely used by many agencies. There are people warning you to be careful with this information, you are free to ignore them and call it "miserable speculation". Your choice. With this kind of ignorance, you would probably be one of those who'll be shaken off in this bear market.

No, I'm not kidding and this is my first real and serious bear market I live!

If you already know these dynamics and patterns, if you've already seen this before and you are able to predict it too, why do not you open a new topic and show us your correct projections, and your studies?
Why are you in here shooting sentences on the work of others, and do not publish yours?
Why do you say that his prediction of the future is totally bullshit? I hope it's wrong but I'm not sure! Why are you so sure?

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study; the constructive and argued criticism I think they are always appreciated by everyone, but the attacks and the miserable speculation I think and hope can be avoided, especially by "old" users.

Really? I don't care about ETF decision at all. That is pretty minor thing. Development and real adoption does not depend on ETF. It would be nice to see some despair after ETF rejection, so finally we can shake off the ballast, and have chance to recover. IMHO bitcoin needs to become stronger in terms of underlying tech and adoption, needs to get more people understanding its concepts and appreciating them, before it enters the sea full of sharks.

People trading BTC or buying it to make profit, do not make Bitcoin stronger. Most of them (especially newcomers) assume Bitcoin is another ponzi, and they are happy with that, as soon as they get profits. I see a lot of people locally (most of them), who still think Bitcoin is just a way to make $$$ from open air by doing some magic called "mining", others still associate Bitcoin with dark market and crime. A lot of education is still needed before we can think of further price growth. The last pump ("bubble") attracted a lot of new people, which is good, but there were too many of wrong type, who need to be filtered out, so when dust settles, we have more real supporters, than before the pump.
The community of people who understand and appreciate the decentralisation, the need for independent currency of 21th century, is what makes BTC strong. And I assume that community does not eagerly wait for ETF approval, but more for Lightning adoption.

8 months have passed and it seems like the technical analysis and getting close to it's last prediction. I'm very terrified that it might happen because people's hopes now only exist on the ETF decision so if they did not favor it then our only way is to go down to the pit of darkness with no light at all.

That something else would be to make Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt happen in you lol. $2000-$4000 lows is possible but lower than $1000 spells the death for the cryptocurrency economy.

I am going to guess that we will not get that low.  There is still interest in the space and BTC is deflationary.  Many alts are going to go to zero. 
There are people claiming we will see 200K per BTC a couple of years from now.  They are delusional.  The amount of money that would need to flow into the space to push the price that high would be immense.

$1000 will be too easy of a buy, bottom will be something in retrospect an easy buy but durant the despair phase will be hard to buy, so it will be something above 1000-1500 because when you buy it you'll be thinking, What if it goes buy to previous top? What if it goes back to $1160?

The triangle is pointing to $4888.

This number was already predicted and it is the equivalent of $188 in the 2013-2015 bear market.

That is the "despair phase" and not your round number of $1000, which is just wishful thinking from your part.

You are joking right?  The bear market is almost totally identical as it was 5 times in past. Just the times intervals are different. Everyone that know at least a bit of history of Bitcoin could predict this.

What is totally bullshit is his prediction of future. He believes. And for sure this was not written in charts, that Bitcoin will get replaced by 2020. And its value will get to 2014 values.  Values of when Bitcoin block was worth 25 BTC and then will be 6.25 BTC. Total crap.

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

* thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

• wave-A: The decline from JAN-2018 to FEB-2018 was the first leg of the crash, labelled as wave-A.
• wave-B: The sideways triangle from FEB-2018 to JULY-2018 consisted of five a-b-c-d-e waves, labelled as wave-B.
• wave-C: The final wave-C, and most devastating leg of the crash is now underway.
  @1500: wave-C = wave-A * 0.5% (i.e. an approx 90% decline)
  A +95% collapse would see sub $1000 prices. (i.e. inline with historical manias)

I find it really ridiculous and childish to criticize and accuse OP of sowing panic or who wants to see this market die, etc. etc .... he is accused of making the price wrong or drawing ghost projections or at random.
Well I think he is the only person in here that in January he pulled out that study, with graphs and waves, prices and time ..... it will not be 100% accurate, but how would it be?

Anyone who had followed his studies and projections in these 8 months, doing only a few operations on the most important turning points, on the downside and on the upside, would have multiplied his Btc x10 or simply saved his earnings.

I wish I had discovered this thread in January and I would have believed in it right away ... now I thank xxxx123abcxxxx

What made you revise your crash target from $2000-$4000 to $500-$1000? Any specific event, or market behaviour, something else?

yeah this is bullshit, but this is bitcointalk man, you kinda have to sort between the bullshit and the small truth here and there! the guy is a trader, a chartist, i doubt he even read satoshi white paper, he just want to enjoy the volatility of the market

personally i think we go towards 200-250K next cycle but before that all the noobs and get rich quick people and retail investors have to dump their coins to the hedge fund people that sold the top and are now in control of the market

What do you say on this statement of this perfect chart painter:

 

You also believe that after 5 Bitcoin cycles they will suddenly end?   I guess he is expecting for Bitcoin price to stabilize or something.

My money is on 5200

I'm short from 8K what do you guys do with your shorts in this market when you think its going towards 3K longterm ? Do you treat it as an "inverted hold" ? Like I've been reading Jesse Livermore and there is this guy always saying "you know this is a bull market" and Jesse saying that what he meant was the money was on the whole movement of it not on the variation

So for instance in a bullmarket you just hold and instead of trading every resistance and buying the middle bband but in a bear market you do the same, you just hold your short until we arrive at a new accumulation phase? what do you guys think?

On the other hand, we had many rebound so far... I had other shorts higher that I closed already and opened new ones and made some profit with it but its a bit exhausting to watch market all day when you kinda know where its going long term

So for instance, with Jesse reasoning you buy 200-300$ in 2015 and you sell the double top at 17500 early 2018 instead of selling at every resistance point and re opening longs, that way you insure the safety of your position

If we apply the reasoning to a bear market, you short 17500 and you just keep holding your short until the market go flat and volatility disappear

But in doing so you miss the opportunity to close at 6K and reshort 10K etc

What you lose in profit you gain in peace though

What are your thoughts?

EDIT: does the fact we overshoot to the upside means we're more likely to overshoot to the downside now? i read somewhere that a bubble should be matched by an inverted bubble as the mania phase should be matched by a despair phase

A number of viable routes to $4000 are currently possible, two such probable routes are speculatively explored here using approx BITSTAMP prices.

1.
—The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, finds support at $5920 (nearby psychological $6000) which is a Fibonacci 0.618% of the wave-d triangle.
—Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6900, coinciding with the trendline of the triangle, meeting the CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.
—Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.


2.
—The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, continues to unfold towards $5220 which is a Fibonacci 0.786% of the wave-d triangle.
—Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6470, coinciding with CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.
—Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.

In summary, current guesswork suggests price to remain bounded between $5220 and $6900 —and possibly ending near either range by CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.

That's my first post here, and I was already watching this thread 2 weeks earlier (d5000 was here, so I probably watched this thread after he posted) I think (also I was quite vibrant observer and charter in 2nd and 3rd week of Jan). There were still then dozens of bulls here.

And I have called this to be the biggest pump and dump (relatively) of this pump cycle, like auroracoin in 2014.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.27611446

Don't want to say "I was right" or "I told you so"... But some people were really thinking against of new trend .

—No intention to 'seed panic'. The 'prophetic' comments are reflective to provide colour of the socionomic mood against a prevailing bear market, with an attempt to predict events driven by human behavior; for example see https://youtu.be/S-BuS7cokyk and https://www.socionomics.net/

—The overshoot targets to call the top were $8372, $8557, $9084 on BITFINEX —all within a tight range of $715 approx. At the time, the majority of popular social media channels were projecting a return to +$10,000 en route to new all-time highs. The actual top was $8507 on BITFINEX.

—The ghost projections aren't completely for 'decorative' purposes. An attempt is made to speculate occasional peaks and troughs; but overall, not to be taken too literally to identify every turn en route. For example, see the EOS, LTC, BCH, IOT speculative models posted previously: https://i.imgur.com/zlgGqZ1.png, https://i.imgur.com/81hRyVd.png, https://i.imgur.com/2Vk9MTb.png, https://i.imgur.com/F9dN4cv.png, https://i.imgur.com/l5gsmJA.png

In summary, this thread was started in the first week of Jan 2018 when Bitcoin was trading at an average range of $16,000. At that time, a crash was called to $2000-$4000. Thus far, there is no deviation from this call, other than a revision to $500-$1000 by 2020, depending upon whether Bitcoin survives.

But you have got the idea of the "trend", when it's halfway down, or maybe in march-april.

He has (and me also) got a thought of it and chart it, when it was january, when everybody and his dog was longing BTC.
So all for all - yeah he was right more time than not. And it was not 60%, more like 80%.

Overshooting targets aren't the worst, if you can manage capital, and your SLs, and don't overleverage yourself.

But the worst really is the people talking here are mainly people, who like to critic someone's short opportunity (and make non-sense comments like "this is FUD") - which is laughable for traders, cause they are in the space only for the volatility (that's why I'm not taking part in trading normally - it's too absorbing and can be tarnishing, if done unproperly - but in free time I chart it).